BRob potential deals to the Cubs

[Roll Tide]

We are a team with several holes, we are not going to get a Vitters type prospect for Roberts.

If we can get Cedeno / Pie / Hill and Wuertz from chicago for BRob thats is a solid deal for us and one we should do.

Pie and Cedeno are both young players who should be given a chance to play everyday. Cedeno could replace brob or slide to short. Pie at the very least provides us with outstanding defense.

Hill is obviouslly struggling but could benefit from a change of scenary and a fresh start.

Wuertz would be a great addition to the pen.

If we make that trade and sign Ohlman for the pen we could also make Scott and Sherrill available to fill the shortstop or third base hole.

Others tha Wuertz & the Orioles have plenty of relievers. the rest of these guys are really scrap heap guys. The Orioles would need 1 lgitimate prospect in return. Is it Vitters I dont know. But as BB said the rest of these guys are more likely to bust or top out as role players. I honestly dont see a trade with the Cubs happen.

[crawdad]

Others tha Wuertz & the Orioles have plenty of relievers. the rest of these guys are really scrap heap guys. The Orioles would need 1 lgitimate prospect in return. Is it Vitters I dont know. But as BB said the rest of these guys are more likely to bust or top out as role players. I honestly dont see a trade with the Cubs happen.

I think this is probably a good read on the situation. The chance that Pie or Cedeno break out is pretty slim. I like Pie too. I'd like to have him in our system in Norfolk. Roberts though should net us with someone who we think will actually be of use to us in three to four years when we have a shot at being competitive. Just dealing him for these spare parts is essentially a salary dump and filler acquisition. If we have some solid plan we reinvesting salary as in ignoring slotting completely in the draft and offering big money to hard signs . . . I would be fine with that. But, if that is unlikely, then we should hold him until someone offers us that prospect or just offer him arbitration at the end of the year and let him walk for two picks who may be worth something 4 years down the line. Otherwise, we are walking backwards.

[Sports Guy]

Thank you Mr Bavasi.

It is becoming more and more apparent that many are totally overrating the value of BRob right now.

[Sports Guy]

I think this is probably a good read on the situation. The chance that Pie or Cedeno break out is pretty slim. I like Pie too. I'd like to have him in our system in Norfolk. Roberts though should net us with someone who we think will actually be of use to us in three to four years when we have a shot at being competitive. Just dealing him for these spare parts is essentially a salary dump and filler acquisition. If we have some solid plan we reinvesting salary as in ignoring slotting completely in the draft and offering big money to hard signs . . . I would be fine with that. But, if that is unlikely, then we should hold him until someone offers us that prospect or just offer him arbitration at the end of the year and let him walk for two picks who may be worth something 4 years down the line. Otherwise, we are walking backwards.

First of all, saying we can't get that out of Pie is pretty absurd to me.

Secondly, you all keep saying what BRob SHOULD net...But it seems as if you say this while paying no attention to his salary, the market, what else is out there, etc...

You have to take all things into consideration.

[crawdad]

First of all, saying we can't get that out of Pie is pretty absurd to me.

Secondly, you all keep saying what BRob SHOULD net...But it seems as if you say this while paying no attention to his salary, the market, what else is out there, etc...

You have to take all things into consideration.

Well, I am taking all of this into consideration. I think from my previous posts, I do address these concepts at least in passing. I have directly mentioned his salary, the market, and what else is out there. I am not sure why you wrote that. I mean, we have been conversing back and forth on this thread the entire time.

I am bullish on Pie. I still like him. He needs reps though. He is a contact oriented hitter and sitting on the bench in Baltimore is not going to be of much help at all to him. If he had an option left . . . I would be fine acquiring him, but he does not. Pie needs to go somewhere where he can play everyday. Out outfield is too full. It is as simple as that. He will struggle and if there are options, a manager will choose something different.

As to what he SHOULD be worth . . . I think you misunderstand what I am trying to say.

1. Roberts has value.

2. We should get value in return for him.

3. That value should help us when we have a shot at being competitive.

4. If that value cannot be found via trade, then we resort through FA compensation.

That is what I am trying to communicate and what I have consistently communicated throughout this thread.

[Owatcher]

What can we get from the Cubs?

Let's assume, for the purpose of this thread, that the Cubs can not get Peavy and turn their attention back to Roberts, which I think is possible.

What would you want to get from them to make a deal happen?

Does Vitters have to be included?

This again? You're actually going to spend energy and intellect on this subject again? Unbelievable!!!

[TonySoprano]

Pie, Wuertz, Cedeno and Hill is better than 1 or 2 picks IMO.

Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno and Rich Hill are out of options, meaning they will have to clear waivers if they're not on the Opening Day roster. None of them will be at this weekend's Cubs Convention, and all three figure to be with different teams by the end of spring training, if they're not dealt beforehand.

source - Chicago Tribune

What are the chances Pie, Cedeno, and Hill clear waivers? That should factor into any decision to trade for them. They can be use or lose assets. Pass on the Cubs, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

Well, I am taking all of this into consideration. I think from my previous posts, I do address these concepts at least in passing. I have directly mentioned his salary, the market, and what else is out there. I am not sure why you wrote that. I mean, we have been conversing back and forth on this thread the entire time.

I am bullish on Pie. I still like him. He needs reps though. He is a contact oriented hitter and sitting on the bench in Baltimore is not going to be of much help at all to him. If he had an option left . . . I would be fine acquiring him, but he does not. Pie needs to go somewhere where he can play everyday. Out outfield is too full. It is as simple as that. He will struggle and if there are options, a manager will choose something different.

As to what he SHOULD be worth . . . I think you misunderstand what I am trying to say.

1. Roberts has value.

2. We should get value in return for him.

3. That value should help us when we have a shot at being competitive.

4. If that value cannot be found via trade, then we resort through FA compensation.

That is what I am trying to communicate and what I have consistently communicated throughout this thread.

There is no reason why Pie can't play everyday in LF.

Scott can be the DH..Huff to first(or vice versa)...So, that solves that problem.

As far as BRob....As soon as a deal is put on the table that is worth more than 2 draft picks, the deal should be made...It really is as simple as that.

The deal i am advocating is clearly worth more than 2 picks and gives us 4 ML ready guys making very little money....They all have potential to be very good for us as well...They all could also bust as well.

But I would rather have those 4 than acquire 2 picks and get guys that are years away from helping us and are unlikely to ever help us to begin with.

So, it really comes down to that....Now, you can say that maybe keeping BRob until July is better...Personally, I disagree with that but at least that is a sound argument IMO...Its not a sound argument to value picks over the 4 guys I have mentioned.

Now, if another trade is out there for BRob that is better than those 4, by all means make that trade.

We don't know what is being said behind closed doors and AM is liable to have a deal on the table that is better than the 4 guys I mentioned...I have my doubts about that but admit it is possible.

I also admit that it is possible that we could pick up guys like Pie, Hill and Cedeno for less come ST time....But that is a risk right now.

Bottom line is if we can get those 4 for BRob and that is the best deal on the table, I do not go into OD with Roberts on the team.

[Sports Guy]

source - Chicago Tribune

What are the chances Pie, Cedeno, and Hill clear waivers? That should factor into any decision to trade for them. They can be use or lose assets. Pass on the Cubs, IMO.

There is no reason for us to pass them through waivers...We should have them on the team...Hill to the rotation or the pen...Pie starts in LF...Cedeno is our everyday second baseman.

And if we get Hill and he is a mess in ST still, we probably could pass him through waivers.

[RShack]

First of all, saying we can't get that out of Pie is pretty absurd to me.

I agree with that.

However, it is equally absurd to say that we will get that out of him.

Every year, there are a handful of "can't miss" guys who have lots of so-called talent, and we're supposed to give up Actual Ballplayers to get them.

But then, oops, a whole bunch of those "can't miss" guys turn out to be very "can-and-do miss" guys.

[crawdad]

There is no reason why Pie can't play everyday in LF.

Scott can be the DH..Huff to first(or vice versa)...So, that solves that problem.

As far as BRob....As soon as a deal is put on the table that is worth more than 2 draft picks, the deal should be made...It really is as simple as that.

The deal i am advocating is clearly worth more than 2 picks and gives us 4 ML ready guys making very little money....They all have potential to be very good for us as well...They all could also bust as well.

But I would rather have those 4 than acquire 2 picks and get guys that are years away from helping us and are unlikely to ever help us to begin with.

So, it really comes down to that....Now, you can say that maybe keeping BRob until July is better...Personally, I disagree with that but at least that is a sound argument IMO...Its not a sound argument to value picks over the 4 guys I have mentioned.

Now, if another trade is out there for BRob that is better than those 4, by all means make that trade.

We don't know what is being said behind closed doors and AM is liable to have a deal on the table that is better than the 4 guys I mentioned...I have my doubts about that but admit it is possible.

I also admit that it is possible that we could pick up guys like Pie, Hill and Cedeno for less come ST time....But that is a risk right now.

Bottom line is if we can get those 4 for BRob and that is the best deal on the table, I do not go into OD with Roberts on the team.

Good, see how this comment was constructive?

A point I made in passing is that even if you peg Pie in left, I do not think he can hold it. We are talking about a guy who hit a composite 830 ops in Iowa. That is rather average. The hype around him was stoked by 220 at bats where his BABIP was through the roof. He has the raw talent, but he really is not what folks think he is. He will probably be an average to above average center fielder if he pans out. That is worth a bit, but not when we have Adam Jones doing a little bit better in center field. There is not that long term value there. Furthermore, he will struggle. He'll probably hit about an 85ops this season and that is about 20-30% less than what a typical left fielder will do. That is fine for CF, but it will severely handicap the lineup and will cause the Trembley to moan about it. We see this all the time. It may make sense to let him play and then spin him as a centerfielder, but I just do not see enough of a gain on this to warrant the risk. With two draft picks where we have about a 60% chance of getting just a single guy into the majors for a year . . . I think there is more value in that than getting spare parts. Again, if we did not have Jones . . . I would see some value in it. For someone like Olson (who should do well in a less home run centric park), I would see some value in it. For a guy like Roberts, I prefer the minimum return over Pie and Cedeno.

[El Gordo]

Just looking at Castillo's contact with the Mets. What were they thinking.? If we bit the bullet and took on his contract, what could we get from the Mets for BRob, besides the mighty Nick Evens of course?

[TonySoprano]

I agree with bigbird that I'd rather have Scott than Pie (OPS+ 57, 130 games) in leftfield. Your second baseman of choice, Cedeno, has a career OPS+ of 62 (329 games) .:eektf: I don't expect either of them to amount to anything that would be valuable to us long-term. Roberts, who you are so gung-ho to trade, could outperform either of those two, for at least the next three years. Basically, you're dealing Roberts for Wuertz, Hill. You don't think we can do better with 1-2 draft picks than those two?

Put me in the camp that doesn't want to trade Roberts for a collection of castoffs from the Cubs. Quantity doesn't equal quality.

I appreciate that Roberts value is down from last offseason because he could be a free agent after the year. However, it's not uncommon for the acquiring team be granted a short period to talk extension, increasing Roberts' trade value.

[Sports Guy]

Good, see how this comment was constructive?

A point I made in passing is that even if you peg Pie in left, I do not think he can hold it. We are talking about a guy who hit a composite 830 ops in Iowa. That is rather average. The hype around him was stoked by 220 at bats where his BABIP was through the roof. He has the raw talent, but he really is not what folks think he is. He will probably be an average to above average center fielder if he pans out. That is worth a bit, but not when we have Adam Jones doing a little bit better in center field. There is not that long term value there. Furthermore, he will struggle. He'll probably hit about an 85ops this season and that is about 20-30% less than what a typical left fielder will do. That is fine for CF, but it will severely handicap the lineup and will cause the Trembley to moan about it. We see this all the time. It may make sense to let him play and then spin him as a centerfielder, but I just do not see enough of a gain on this to warrant the risk. With two draft picks where we have about a 60% chance of getting just a single guy into the majors for a year . . . I think there is more value in that than getting spare parts. Again, if we did not have Jones . . . I would see some value in it. For someone like Olson (who should do well in a less home run centric park), I would see some value in it. For a guy like Roberts, I prefer the minimum return over Pie and Cedeno.

Who care if he struggles some this year? WE SUCK! The orioles are a terrible team.

You mention DT will get pissed about it...Why? Last year, he had a hard-on for a no hit SS who he felt was a good fielder and stuck him in the lineup everyday....Pie is an amazing fielder and will certainly hit better than any of the guys we had at SS last year. DT loves great defense and having those 3 in the OF would probably make him all giddy.

Our offense should be decent next year, so we can hide Pie down in the lineup anyway.

BTW, Bill James and CHONE project him to have a 757 OPS...Marcel predictions have him at 703...Personally, I see him in the 720ish OPS range.

If he does that and gives us great defense and brings a lot of speed to the lineup, then I think he has value...Maybe not quite league average in his rookie season but so what? He is only 24...He can come here and learn.

Don't get me wrong, I have my doubts about the kid but give me Pie over another Xavier Avery type draft pick any day of the week.

Plus, with the way the economy is, I don't know that we can say for sure that we will offer BRob arbitration and that he won't end up having to accept it...The Hudson contract should shed a little light on this idea.

[Sports Guy]

I agree with bigbird that I'd rather have Scott than Pie (OPS+ 57, 130 games) in leftfield. Your second baseman of choice, Cedeno, has a career OPS+ of 62 (329 games) .:eektf: I don't expect either of them to amount to anything that would be valuable to us long-term. Roberts, who you are so gung-ho to trade, could outperform either of those two, for at least the next three years. Basically, you're dealing Roberts for Wuertz, Hill. You don't think we can do better with 1-2 draft picks than those two?

Put me in the camp that doesn't want to trade Roberts for a collection of castoffs from the Cubs. Quantity doesn't equal quality.

I appreciate that Roberts value is down from last offseason because he could be a free agent after the year. However, it's not uncommon for the acquiring team be granted a short period to talk extension, increasing Roberts' trade value.

Its not like you are kicking Scott off the team...He still plays everyday.

This isn't an either/or situation.