BRob potential deals to the Cubs

[El Gordo]

I still think our best and most realistic return is the deal I have said...Pie, Wuertz, Cedeno and Hill...4 pieces the Cubs have no use for right now...4 pieces they are fine with losing...Between these 4 guys, it is probably 2-2.5 million in salary as well, so the Cubs do lose some salary in this deal to acquire BRob.

It just seems as if this is the best deal for us out there as of right now.(i am assuming Floyd isn't a real possibility at this time)

I agree. If the Cubs don't trade for Peavy.

[Scrat1]

I still think our best and most realistic return is the deal I have said...Pie, Wuertz, Cedeno and Hill...4 pieces the Cubs have no use for right now...4 pieces they are fine with losing...Between these 4 guys, it is probably 2-2.5 million in salary as well, so the Cubs do lose some salary in this deal to acquire BRob.

It just seems as if this is the best deal for us out there as of right now.(i am assuming Floyd isn't a real possibility at this time)

I agree, that if Floyd isn't a possibility, this is a solid idea. I really would like to see what Pie could do.

As far as Roberts goes, my preference is: (1) Trade (2) Extend (3) Picks

[bigbird]

I still think our best and most realistic return is the deal I have said...Pie, Wuertz, Cedeno and Hill...4 pieces the Cubs have no use for right now...4 pieces they are fine with losing...Between these 4 guys, it is probably 2-2.5 million in salary as well, so the Cubs do lose some salary in this deal to acquire BRob.

It just seems as if this is the best deal for us out there as of right now.(i am assuming Floyd isn't a real possibility at this time)

I would rather give Jordan the 2 extra draft picks than trade for those 4.

[ugen64]

I agree, that if Floyd isn't a possibility, this is a solid idea. I really would like to see what Pie could do.

As far as Roberts goes my preference is: (1) Trade (2) Extend (3) Picks

Yeah, Pie actually intrigues me a bit. First of all, I wouldn't be surprised if he were a better CF than Adam Jones defensively - an outfield of Jones - Pie - Markakis would be amazing (you'd presumably move Scott to DH). Second, yeah, Pie has been a big disappointment in the majors, but what's interesting is that his best near-age comps according to ZiPS were Corey Patterson and Dave Martinez (this was before the 2008 season). That about sums it up - his upside is an average hitting CF with great defense and very little power, while his downside is an awful hitting CF with great defense and negative power. Either way I'd like to see what he can do.

[Scrat1]

Yeah, Pie actually intrigues me a bit. First of all, I wouldn't be surprised if he were a better CF than Adam Jones defensively - an outfield of Jones - Pie - Markakis would be amazing (you'd presumably move Scott to DH). Second, yeah, Pie has been a big disappointment in the majors, but what's interesting is that his best near-age comps according to ZiPS were Corey Patterson and Dave Martinez (this was before the 2008 season). That about sums it up - his upside is an average hitting CF with great defense and very little power, while his downside is an awful hitting CF with great defense and negative power. Either way I'd like to see what he can do.

I think he has significantly more upside than "very little power" and I think we would keep Jones in CF. But Pie gives us a lot of flexibility in the outfield since he could play such a solid CF.

I'd definitely pull the trigger on this deal. I would think at least one of Hill/Pie/Cedeno would pan out, hopefully more than one. I don't understand how anyone can think the players we got from two picks have a higher chance of contributing to our club than any of these four.

[skanar]

Would you trade Matusz + Xavier Avery for Pie + Hill + Cedeno + Wuertz?

How about Avery + LJ Hoes for those four?

Depending on the position of the compensation pick, they represent the value of the "two picks" in a concrete but not perfectly analogous way. If you want to trade Roberts for this (hypothetical) Cubs package, then you would be very likely to trade Avery+Hoes (minus this past season's performance, of course) for them as well, and possibly even willing to trade Matusz + Avery.

You have to put aside concepts of "untouchability" to make this kind of connection, but wouldn't we be likely to get a similarly "untouchable" player late in the 1st round of next year's draft?

IMO, I wouldn't mind seeing Roberts traded at the right price, but I haven't heard any rumored package that I'd prefer to the picks.

[Sports Guy]

I would rather give Jordan the 2 extra draft picks than trade for those 4.

Not me...Wuertz can step right in to our pen and be effective.

I would expect a similar season to what Jones just gave us from Pie.

Cedeno can start everyday at second and we can find out if his defense is good enough and if he can give us a 720ish OPS...which should be enough to be league average or better at second or SS.

And Hill has a ton of upside even if he is a mess right now.

Give me those guys over the Xavier Avery types everyday of the week.

[Sports Guy]

Would you trade Matusz + Xavier Avery for Pie + Hill + Cedeno + Wuertz?

How about Avery + LJ Hoes for those four?

Depending on the position of the compensation pick, they represent the value of the "two picks" in a concrete but not perfectly analogous way. If you want to trade Roberts for this (hypothetical) Cubs package, then you would be very likely to trade Avery+Hoes (minus this past season's performance, of course) for them as well, and possibly even willing to trade Matusz + Avery.

You have to put aside concepts of "untouchability" to make this kind of connection, but wouldn't we be likely to get a similarly "untouchable" player late in the 1st round of next year's draft?

IMO, I wouldn't mind seeing Roberts traded at the right price, but I haven't heard any rumored package that I'd prefer to the picks.

Matusz was a top 5 pick......IF we got a first rounder for BRob, it would be in the bottom portion of the draft.

[clapdiddy]

Would you trade Matusz + Xavier Avery for Pie + Hill + Cedeno + Wuertz?

How about Avery + LJ Hoes for those four?

Depending on the position of the compensation pick, they represent the value of the "two picks" in a concrete but not perfectly analogous way. If you want to trade Roberts for this (hypothetical) Cubs package, then you would be very likely to trade Avery+Hoes (minus this past season's performance, of course) for them as well, and possibly even willing to trade Matusz + Avery.

You have to put aside concepts of "untouchability" to make this kind of connection, but wouldn't we be likely to get a similarly "untouchable" player late in the 1st round of next year's draft?

IMO, I wouldn't mind seeing Roberts traded at the right price, but I haven't heard any rumored package that I'd prefer to the picks.

I think including Matusz in this discussion is irrelevant. You aren't going to get a talent like Matusz with a supplemental pick or a low first round/second round pick.

I'd take this package for one season of Roberts in a minute. These guys would all be under our control for years, and we are the perfect team for guys who need a shot in the bigs right now.

[Sports Guy]

Give me those 4 and sign Garland/Wolf/et al to a one year deal(thus making them go to a 12 man staff)

Scott goes to DH most of the time...Huff to first.

Cedeno, Izturis, Wieters/Zaun and Pie will make for a much better defense.

Guthrie, Uehera, Garland/Wolf, etc.., Olson and Hill or Penn for the rotation.

Pen has Sherrill, JJ, Ray, Wuertz, Walker/Baez, Hill/Penn and Hendrickson...Sarfate either cut, traded or perhaps "still hurt"....Walker or Baez cut...Doubt they cut both.

That wouldn't be a bad team IMO...The defense should be excellent...The bullpen should also be very solid and they should be able to get a lot of innings out of the rotation.

We would have added several more pieces for the long term and still been able to look at some young players of our own.

Do that and extend Markakis and I think that would be a very successful offseason.

[bigbird]

Not me...Wuertz can step right in to our pen and be effective.

I would expect a similar season to what Jones just gave us from Pie.

Cedeno can start everyday at second and we can find out if his defense is good enough and if he can give us a 720ish OPS...which should be enough to be league average or better at second or SS.

And Hill has a ton of upside even if he is a mess right now.

Give me those guys over the Xavier Avery types everyday of the week.

None of the 4 players are difference makers in turning us into a championship team. 2 draft picks in the top 50 may.

[clapdiddy]

Give me those 4 and sign Garland/Wolf/et al to a one year deal(thus making them go to a 12 man staff)

Scott goes to DH most of the time...Huff to first.

Cedeno, Izturis, Wieters/Zaun and Pie will make for a much better defense.

Guthrie, Uehera, Garland/Wolf, etc.., Olson and Hill or Penn for the rotation.

Pen has Sherrill, JJ, Ray, Wuertz, Walker/Baez, Hill/Penn and Hendrickson...Sarfate either cut, traded or perhaps "still hurt"....Walker or Baez cut...Doubt they cut both.

That wouldn't be a bad team IMO...The defense should be excellent...The bullpen should also be very solid and they should be able to get a lot of innings out of the rotation.

We would have added several more pieces for the long term and still been able to look at some young players of our own.

Do that and extend Markakis and I think that would be a very successful offseason.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'd think the Cubs might actually go for that deal. They wouldn't lose anyone who would be contributing this year (except Wuertz), and they pick up another piece that could put them over the top.

This deal would give us a lot of young (albeit risky) talent on the 25-man roster, and it could very well turn out great. It could also turn out that none of these guys make an impact, but I'd take a chance on them rather than two draft picks that are likely out of the top 20.

I agree that our defense would be very good, except for the infield corners.

[Sports Guy]

None of the 4 players are difference makers in turning us into a championship team. 2 draft picks in the top 50 may.

THis statement makes no zero sense.

It is very unlikely we get someone there who shows as much promise as Pie and Hill have shown.

Jordan likes to draft high schoolers...He likes to draft athletes first, baseball players second.

Those guys are much more likely to fail than succeed.

I would rather have the ML ready guys who have shown gone through the minors and played very well and are now ready to show what they can do over a full season.

Bill James projects Pie to have a 750ish OPS this year..Combine that with his speed and defense and you may have a league average LFer....Then, factor in salary, service time, upside and age and you have a guy that maybe by himself is worth dealing for BRob.

[Sports Guy]

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'd think the Cubs might actually go for that deal. They wouldn't lose anyone who would be contributing this year (except Wuertz), and they pick up another piece that could put them over the top.

This deal would give us a lot of young (albeit risky) talent on the 25-man roster, and it could very well turn out great. It could also turn out that none of these guys make an impact, but I'd take a chance on them rather than two draft picks that are likely out of the top 20.

I agree that our defense would be very good, except for the infield corners.

Its really no more risky a package than the Astros package was, especially since they knew of Patton's injury.

In this economy and with BRob having one more year left, I am not sure you could expect much more than that.

I really have very little doubt that the Cubs would jump at that deal.

Hell, I think they could do this AND get Peavy since we aren't likely to get anyone in that deal that would be going to the Pads anyway, except MAYBE Cedeno.

[Delbird]

None of the 4 players are difference makers in turning us into a championship team. 2 draft picks in the top 50 may.

For those advocating the '2 draft pick' scenario, isn't there a big risk to putting your eggs in that basket. My understanding of the compensation picks shows that there is a risk you don't get 2 top 50 picks for BRob if he is a Type A free agent (link). If the signing team's pick is in the first 15, you'll get their second pick, plus the sandwich pick. Or...we could have a scenario like with the Yankees this year, where they signed a number of Type A free agents, pushing down the level of the draft pick from the 'losing' team based on the ranking of the player. Those 2 picks could end up being the sandwich pick (between the 1st and 2nd) and something anywhere from late first round, to second, third, or even fourth round. The point being that counting on those 2 picks being top 50 and actually making it to the majors as quality players is iffy at best. It seems to come down to the old 'bird in hand' being worth '2 picks' in the bush - if the 'bird in the hand' is 3 or 4 quality young players with high upside. I hope I've interpreted Keith Laws write up on the compensation system correctly.