Could the Orioles deal Austin Hays?

[Frobby]

A few Hays facts I dug up:

- Hays ranks 13th in rWAR among all players (including pitchers) drafted in 2016.

- Hays ranks 26th in rWAR among all players (pitchers included) who debuted in 2017.   

[BRobinsonfan]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, you could say that about Fred Lynn.  The guy had a 50 WAR career despite averaging only 122 games a year.  (I’m excluding his cup of coffee in 1974 in that calculation.)

My point is, everything is a matter of degree.  And, IMO, Hays is too young to be pigeonholed.  He’s qualified for the batting title the last two years and has played in more games than most outfielders (23rd in PA among all outfielders in that time).  I’m not going to say that injuries haven’t hampered him in those seasons, but there are dozens of guys who were more impacted by injuries than Hays the last two years.   Who knows what the future holds for him, injury-wise?   

I agree that Hays is still too young to be pigeonholed.  And I was encouraged by his last season.  But I'm still not bothered by the comparison to Reimold because both were highly regarded outfielders at the beginning of their careers, who played for the O's, whose early years had their playing time limited by injuries.  Comparing their first 4 years, Reimold played in 246 games and Hays only 205.  The comparison to Lynn doesn't fit well in my opinion because in his first 5 years (throwing out 74) he averaged 140 games a season, a .307 batting average, 22 HRs a year and won the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards.  

 

 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I agree that Hays is still too young to be pigeonholed.  And I was encouraged by his last season.  But I'm still not bothered by the comparison to Reimold because both were highly regarded outfielders at the beginning of their careers, who played for the O's, whose early years had their playing time limited by injuries.  Comparing their first 4 years, Reimold played in 246 games and Hays only 205.  The comparison to Lynn doesn't fit well in my opinion because in his first 5 years (throwing out 74) he averaged 140 games a season, a .307 batting average, 22 HRs a year and won the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards.  

 

 

Obviously I don’t think Hays is in the same universe as Lynn.  I just used him as an extreme example of a guy who was injury-prone and yet had a long and very productive career, whereas I think it would be fair to say that Reimold is a guy whose career was very badly derailed by injuries.   Hays is somewhere between them on the spectrum, IMO.  Like I said, I think he has a solid shot at a 15-20 WAR career.  I wouldn’t say the odds of that are better than 50-50, I’m just saying that outcome wouldn’t surprise me at all.  

[jamalshw]

I think we as a fan base are a bit lower on Hays than we maybe should be. We view him as injury prone and while he certainly was early in his career particularly after his 2017 debut for a few years, he played in 131 and 145 games the last two years respectively. That's not bad at all in today's game. 

Granted his average and OBP aren't great and I'd love to see him get that OBP up a good 20 points, but he has some pop with doubles and homers and managed to be above average offensively according to OPS+ (albeit only slightly) each of the last two years. He's a solid 2 WAR type player. He's not a star, but he's a solid player and given the promotions of Rutschman and Henderson and more help on the way, I hope he slots in at a more appropriate spot in the order for him (around the 7-hole for me). He's not a guy that should be hitting in the top half of the lineup, but he's also not a guy I'm eager to replace. 

If he can net something in a deal, I'm not opposed to moving him if you can replace him. Cowser and company aren't quite there yet and someone like Profar is probably going to cost more than the benefit you get for moving Hays, particuarly given his weak second half likely gives other teams pause much like it does us. 

[Moose Milligan]

I hope they do.

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I would not expect a huge return, maybe something along the lines of the Jorge Lopez deadline trade.

We'd be very happy with a return like that, particularly if it nets a top 100 LH SP.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

A few Hays facts I dug up:

- Hays ranks 13th in rWAR among all players (including pitchers) drafted in 2016.

- Hays ranks 26th in rWAR among all players (pitchers included) who debuted in 2017.   

The Reimold comps start and finish with injury-prone. Reimold was a patient hitter and stiff fielder. Hays is a very good fielder and a low OBP hitter. 

Good teams can definitely have guys like Hays. The O's problem, IMO, has been that lowish OBP guys like Hays are hitting way too high in the order, and there's too many of them. That's why people are willing to move on, IMO.

[24fps]

Keep Hays.  As fourth OF he could still get 400+ AB and be incredibly useful in that role.

[JimGinSP]

MLB Trade Rumors story speculates the Rangers might seek a proven LF. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/02/rangers-rumors-left-field.html

Using https://www.baseballtradevalues.com the following two players from the Texas 40 man are considered a fair return for Hays: 

LHP Brock Burke 26 yo

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burkebr01.shtml

&

LH Hitting 1B/OF Dustin Harris 23 yo

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=harris000dus

Burke had a bit of a breakthrough season in the Ranger bullpen last year after mainly a starter in the minors.  Harris joined Gunnar on the 2022 futures game roster during his 331 AB AA season of .257/.346/.471/.817.

Do either the Orioles or the Rangers think Hays is a starter on a championship contending team?  4th OF or “contributing pieces” don’t get that return.

Edited February 11, 2023 by JimGinSP

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/9/2023 at 12:03 PM, LookinUp said:

The Reimold comps start and finish with injury-prone. Reimold was a patient hitter and stiff fielder. Hays is a very good fielder and a low OBP hitter. 

Good teams can definitely have guys like Hays. The O's problem, IMO, has been that lowish OBP guys like Hays are hitting way too high in the order, and there's too many of them. That's why people are willing to move on, IMO.

You can't have a top MLB offense and have guys with marginal offensive talent playing at 1B and LF.  These are spots where traditionally teams play players w/ poor defensive ability to keep a premium bat in the lineup (yeah, I know LF Walltimore, etc). 

[interloper]

Hays has technically stayed healthy the last two years but he's also learned how to play hurt. In 2021 he played with a torn ab muscle that he got surgery on immediately after the season ended. Lsst year he battled wrist injuries and something else that caused him to wince on swings late in the year. Thus his second half was poor, but he did technically play all year.

I like Hays the person. His interviews are great. He's a gamer. He fits well manning left field and he can have some great hot streaks. 

You just wish he'd get on base more. But as a complementary piece we could do a lot worse. It's a spot we should look to upgrade eventually but probably not gonna happen this year.

 

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, JimGinSP said:

Do either the Orioles or the Rangers think Hays is a starter on a championship contending team?  4th OF or “contributing pieces” don’t get that return.

Agreed.  I think Hays can be a starter on a contender hitting toward the bottom of the lineup .  And if he manages to put together a full year of performance that he’s shown for some extended periods, then he’s more than just an average floor.

[Sports Guy]

If you knew Hays could stay healthy, you would feel comfortable with him as an everyday player.

But the unreliability is such an issue. At some point, if you have to say enough is enough and while that doesn’t mean to dump him for nothing, it does mean that you look at alternative options to be your starter and move him a new role as your 4th OFer.

I guess Cowser is that alternative but we will see on that.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you knew Hays could stay healthy, you would feel comfortable with him as an everyday player.

But the unreliability is such an issue. At some point, if you have to say enough is enough and while that doesn’t mean to dump him for nothing, it does mean that you look at alternative options to be your starter and move him a new role as your 4th OFer.

I guess Cowser is that alternative but we will see on that.

How many outfielders are reliable, in your definition?  I think you’d be surprised at how few are.  

I’m looking for Stowers and Cowser to try to grab significant playing time this year.   
 

[Just Regular]

I wonder whether a little of the "left-handed" Bat preference comments this offseason have a subtext to Hays, Mountcastle and Mateo - "do better".      Alongside the ballpark configuration stuff.

I would not expect Cowser or Stowers to be able to outplay the good version of Hays yet, but Frazier's OF-IF flex enables Hays playing time to mix with all the infielders, so even with both those guys in AAA there could be lineups v. RHP without him.

Stowers got just a tiny fraction of Elias pool money that Kjerstad-Cowser-Holliday did - if Holliday can overlap with Santander for 125 at-bats next September, RHP opponents might face Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad, Santander all at once.    Stowers too if he or Kjerstad becomes 1B at Mountcastle's expense.