Could the Orioles deal Austin Hays?

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How many outfielders are reliable, in your definition?  I think you’d be surprised at how few are.  

I’m looking for Stowers and Cowser to try to grab significant playing time this year.   
 

It’s probably not a lot..which just goes to show that they need to platoon and not rely on singular guys to get 500+ at bats until they show they should. 
 

Guys like Hays have shown they can’t. It’s time to find out if the next group can.

[Just Regular]

NFBC players peg Hays about the 25th best AL outfielder.    The Baseball Forecaster annual assigns letter grades to players for both Health (Hays = C) and Consistency (Hays = A).    That's seasonal Consistency - obviously Hays runs hot and cold.

Better AL Outfielders with B or better at both measures: Teoscar Hernandez, Steven Kwan, Taylor Ward, Hunter Renfroe, Oscar Gonzalez, Alex Verdugo.    That's it.

Like all the 2023 Orioles, Hays should encounter a shorter leash with weak performance than anyone has encountered to date in their career.

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s probably not a lot..which just goes to show that they need to platoon and not rely on singular guys to get 500+ at bats until they show they should. 
 

Guys like Hays have shown they can’t. It’s time to find out if the next group can.

Do you think the O's roster this year relies on Hays to get 500+ AB? I don't think it does anymore. He got 535 ABs last year but this year he'll likely contend with 6 months of Stowers and 2-3 months of Cowser for those ABs.

Like JustRegular said above about a shorter leash, if Hays isn't playing better than those guys I don't think he'll see 500 ABs. Whereas the last two years he was pretty much locked into the starting gig. 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Do you think the O's roster this year relies on Hays to get 500+ AB? I don't think it does anymore. He got 535 ABs last year but this year he'll likely contend with 6 months of Stowers and 2-3 months of Cowser for those ABs.

Like JustRegular said above about a shorter leash, if Hays isn't playing better than those guys I don't think he'll see 500 ABs. Whereas the last two years he was pretty much locked into the starting gig. 

Makes sense to me.  He’ll have to play better than last year to earn the same amount of playing time, because our alternatives are better than before.  But I do think he’ll get a lot of run the first 2-3 months to show he’s more like the first-half 2022 Hays than the second-half Hays.  Then Hyde will adjust accordingly.  

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Do you think the O's roster this year relies on Hays to get 500+ AB? I don't think it does anymore. He got 535 ABs last year but this year he'll likely contend with 6 months of Stowers and 2-3 months of Cowser for those ABs.

Like JustRegular said above about a shorter leash, if Hays isn't playing better than those guys I don't think he'll see 500 ABs. Whereas the last two years he was pretty much locked into the starting gig. 

I hope not. I don’t think he should start the year in the role of an everyday player but that’s what he is right now.

Hopefully that doesn’t last.

[wildcard]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I hope not. I don’t think he should start the year in the role of an everyday player but that’s what he is right now.

Hopefully that doesn’t last.

I hope Hays does put up an 830 OPS for 500-600 AB this year.   That would be a great outcome.   He hasn't done it before and odds are he will not this year.   But I am not going to hope he fails.

I would gladly take the production he did for the first three month last season extended to 6 months.

Edited February 11, 2023 by wildcard

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I hope not. I don’t think he should start the year in the role of an everyday player but that’s what he is right now.

Hopefully that doesn’t last.

I think you are saying this right, but missing a bit of the point.  Hays healthy is a fine everyday player.  His issue of course is being healthy enough to perform as a fine player for an entire season.

If he is healthy and performing he should play until someone pushes past him.  I think the point is that we haven't had a better alternative and I think now we do.  If he isn't performing, or isn't healthy I think he will find his job is in jeopardy.  That is how it should be.

My hope is he plays well enough to make it hard to push him out.  But at the end of the day, I hope the talent behind him wins out, not that the talent behind just gets the job because he underperforms or is injured.

It's a pretty good spot to be in really.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Do you think the O's roster this year relies on Hays to get 500+ AB? I don't think it does anymore. He got 535 ABs last year but this year he'll likely contend with 6 months of Stowers and 2-3 months of Cowser for those ABs.

Like JustRegular said above about a shorter leash, if Hays isn't playing better than those guys I don't think he'll see 500 ABs. Whereas the last two years he was pretty much locked into the starting gig. 

Since a lot of you guys noticed that Hays was banged up, Hyde and the on field staff had to know he was banged up.  Maybe in early 2023, Hays > Stowers, but is banged up June Hays > Stowers.  I wouldn;t feel bad if the O's DL him in June for whatever nagging injuries he has.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Do you think the O's roster this year relies on Hays to get 500+ AB? I don't think it does anymore. He got 535 ABs last year but this year he'll likely contend with 6 months of Stowers and 2-3 months of Cowser for those ABs.

Like JustRegular said above about a shorter leash, if Hays isn't playing better than those guys I don't think he'll see 500 ABs. Whereas the last two years he was pretty much locked into the starting gig. 

I agree there's going to be competition from too many other players. I would love for Stowers to get regular at bats to see if he's an MLB hitter or not. Cowser should be up at some point too.

If Hays is batting at like a 120 OPS+ then 500 at bats is a possibility for him, but if Hays gets streaky, I don't see the team just letting him play everyday to get out of a slump.

Plus Hays is usually good for a trip to the IL and that might be enough to give him less at bats this year.

[SilverRocket]

Hays had 11 HR and 7 outfield assists before July 4, when he got hit by a pitch on the wrist. After that game, he had 5 HR and 1 assist, and stopped being able to turn on inside pitches. I wonder what would've happened if he rested for a while and let that wrist heal.

I don't really see a way to trade him this late in the offseason considering the other corner outfielders are well below-average defenders. I just hope he stays healthy, and is willing to rest and recover when he's not.

[Roll Tide]

On 2/9/2023 at 8:49 AM, Sports Guy said:

I think his value is low and he is far from a “great trade chip”.

When healthy, he’s a good player. But he’s rarely healthy, he’s not reliable and teams know that.

Yeah….high .200/low .300 OBP guys have limited value.

[HakunaSakata]

On 2/12/2023 at 4:54 AM, SilverRocket said:

Hays had 11 HR and 7 outfield assists before July 4, when he got hit by a pitch on the wrist. After that game, he had 5 HR and 1 assist, and stopped being able to turn on inside pitches. I wonder what would've happened if he rested for a while and let that wrist heal.

I don't really see a way to trade him this late in the offseason considering the other corner outfielders are well below-average defenders. I just hope he stays healthy, and is willing to rest and recover when he's not.

Here's an excerpt from a MASN blog post last season. Maybe it impacted his hitting for a bit, it doesn't sound like it had any impact on his defense or the drop in his OF assists. Agree with you on them not trading him, but mostly because I don't think he has much trade value. That said I'm hoping one of our young OF prospects is ready to replace and/or split time with Hays by mid-season. 

The sore wrist isn’t impacting Hays’ work in the outfield.

“When I have tape on it, I don’t really feel it throwing,” he said. “Defensively, I feel like I don’t even notice it when I’m out there.”

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Yeah….high .200/low .300 OBP guys have limited value.

Well it depends on what else they bring to the table. Hays brings enough to have value and be an everyday player..when healthy. 
 

But the unreliability is a huge issue and can’t be ignored.

 

[2001OriolesFan]

I say lets see what comes out of spring training.  Most likely he starts along with Mullins, Santander, Stowers and McKenna on the roster.   That give us the same 5 OF as we ended with last year. That leaves Cowser at AAA  as the replacement/sub to come up late in the season (like Henderson) if we find a good trade for one of the 5.  That leaves Beavers and Kjerstad to transition to AAA when Cowers comes up.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yeah….high .200/low .300 OBP guys have limited value.

I agree, but it depends on context.  League average OBP was .337 in 2006; .323 in 2019; .312 last year.  A .300 OBP would have been considered pathetic in 2006; now it’s merely somewhat below average and a guy with well above average power might still be a good (not great) offensive player despite an OBP like that.