BR Trade Proposals

[SteveA]

6 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I get where you're coming from, but is Joe Adell's floor really that much lower than Austin Hays ceiling? I really don't think it is. And I'd only be interested in him if Elias felt like he could fix his K rate. 

Umm, yes.   Jo Adell's floor is "not being good enough to stay in the majors".    Austin Hays is a + defender who has put up an OPS+ > 100 two years in a row, so his "ceiling" is at least what he has done the past two years, probably more.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Principles of good salesmanship - encourage your customer's emotional investment in the product.

Talking Orioles with friends/neighbors out in the real world, it'd almost be helpful if there was like an OH symbol or something so you know you could advance to Message Board-level depth without an "Are you crazy" look from Joe Public.

No one needs to encourage me to buy a pack of baseball cards.

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Umm, yes.   Jo Adell's floor is "not being good enough to stay in the majors".    Austin Hays is a + defender who has put up an OPS+ > 100 two years in a row, so his "ceiling" is at least what he has done the past two years, probably more.

I'm fairly confident that if you gave Joe Adell a full season of ABs he'd at least equal Austin Hays in every single offensive category except for batting average. Austin Hays is a low bar. 

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm fairly confident that if you gave Joe Adell a full season of ABs he'd at least equal Austin Hays in every single offensive category except for batting average. Austin Hays is a low bar. 

1) I don't know if I agree with that.   Certainly results at the major league level so far don't make it seem that way.

2) Even if it is so, saying he would equal Hays in most categories is a far cry from saying his floor is almost as high as Hays' ceiling, which was the statement of yours that I strongly disagreed with.

[emmett16]

14 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm fairly confident that if you gave Joe Adell a full season of ABs he'd at least equal Austin Hays in every single offensive category except for batting average. Austin Hays is a low bar. 

I’d take that bet.  Adell can’t hit.  It’s that simple.  

[maybenxtyr]

17 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

No one needs to encourage me to buy a pack of baseball cards.

I haven't bought any since the 90's. I was going through some of them a few weeks ago and doing a lot of reminiscing. A lot of yards got cut in the 80's and 90's so I could buy them. I've probably got around 100,000 cards.

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Jo Adell is on a freight train to Bust Town.  I'd pass on that, too.

I'm curious to see what we can get for Mullins.  I think we could get two solid prospects from a system in return for Mullins and maybe a Dominican scratch off ticket, too.  Your assumption that Reynolds is worth more is incorrect, at least based on last season.  Mullins had a higher WAR.

I think Tony has posted the information but I do believe Mullins' sprint speed has decreased over the past couple years and that's not going to get any better.  If we're going to move him, now's the time to do it.  I'm not actively beating the drum to trade him but I would be listening to offers.

There's a general theme around the MLB that Bryan Reynolds is more valuable.  However, you're correct that Mullins WAR was slightly higher in 2022, but also lower in 2021 when Cedric had a great year.  They're worth 9.4 and 9.0 over the past two years respectively.  For me, if I could get that haul from the LAD, I'd take it.

As for Mateo, I'm against Adell, but if we can get a similar top 25 prospect who is starting to bust (Mackenzie Gore?, Forest Whitley, Michael Kopech) I'd be all over that.  As we have ready replacements and a very full infield.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Adell is similar to what Mateo used to be..very toolsy, highly ranked, high upside with a big bust potential.

Without any defensive value, though.   In fact, he's a liablity.

[RZNJ]

51 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm fairly confident that if you gave Joe Adell a full season of ABs he'd at least equal Austin Hays in every single offensive category except for batting average. Austin Hays is a low bar. 

Jo Adell has had a full season of AB's and he's nowhere close to Austin Hays so far.   161 games.  557 PA.   Not good.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

If Elias and the O's scouting team think they can fix Adell's strikeout rate why not make this trade? Mateo is four years older and has already peaked (no where to go but down offensively). And the Orioles can replace him with Urias short term and Holliday long term. 

The idea that Mateo has nowhere to go but down offensively is crazy.  Did you mean defensively?   That, I could believe.  

Anyway, it’s a fallacy to think that every player follows the exact same aging curve.   
 

[Big Mac]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm fairly confident that if you gave Joe Adell a full season of ABs he'd at least equal Austin Hays in every single offensive category except for batting average. Austin Hays is a low bar. 

He's had a full season of ABs in his career at this point to the tune of a .616 OPS, 70 OPS+ and -1.7 WAR.  He would need to demonstrate massive improvement to even be comparable to Hays. 

[RZNJ]

Jo Adell came up to bat 285 times last year.  He walked 11 times and struck out an amazing 107 times.    That's 37.5%.   Despite top of the charts speed he was a -4 OAA last year in LF because his jumps are at the bottom of the charts (5th percentile).    At least Mateo has the floor of bad offense and plus defense.   Adell is a worse hitter and can't even be mentioned in the same sentence as far as defense goes.   For all of his power, Adell hit EIGHT home runs last year.    If Mateo becomes an average hitter it would be a huge surprise.   If Adell becomes an average hitter it will be a miracle.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

He's had a full season of ABs in his career at this point to the tune of a .616 OPS, 70 OPS+ and -1.7 WAR.  He would need to demonstrate massive improvement to even be comparable to Hays. 

I agree, and I think it’s unlikely.  However, big improvements from players with <600 PA in their career are not unheard of.  I see ZiPS projects him for a 95 OPS+, and his 80th percentile projection is 119.   

[Big Mac]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree, and I think it’s unlikely.  However, big improvements from players with <600 PA in their career are not unheard of.  I see ZiPS projects him for a 95 OPS+, and his 80th percentile projection is 119.   

Agreed, I think there is a good chance he ends better than a .600ish OPS guy.  His track record to date however obviously shows that his floor is much lower than present day Austin Hays. 

[LTO's]

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Without any defensive value, though.   In fact, he's a liablity.

Yeah I'm surprised people are focusing on his offense when he's an absolutely atrocious outfielder. He's got a very good arm and incredible athleticism though so he will be given plenty of chances.