BR Trade Proposals

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I learn something new every day.

This is why almost all 1B will have a negative dWAR.  The positional adjustment for a full year at 1B is -9.5 runs per 150 games. By the same token, Catcher get a +9.   The full list:

Current values (per 1350 (150*9) innings played) are:

C +9 runs

SS: +7 runs

2B: +3 runs

CF: +2.5 runs

3B: +2 runs

RF: -7 runs

LF: -7 runs

1B: -9.5 runs

DH: -15 runs

Edited February 10, 2023 by Frobby

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

16 hrs, 60 RBI, 66 Runs, 2 SBs, and a .250 batting average last season in 582 plate appearances. (while posting a negative DWAR). Those aren't the numbers of a major league regular. Not on a good or great team. I'm done thinking Austin Hays is going to "break out". This is who is he and in a perfect world one of our young prospects will have replaced him as a starter by mid-season. 

On June 27, 2022 Hays stats were 287/345/489/834, 11 HR, 45 RBI in 276 AB.   That is a MLB regular.  In fact he was being talked about as an All-Star.   Shortly there after he was hurt and the numbers came tumbling down.

[RZNJ]

Just now, HakunaSakata said:

I don't think we have enough of a sample size (at the MLB level) to know what Joe Adell is. Not all top prospects hit, but I think he's still young enough to have upside and it's not outrageous to think that he might be able to improve. Look at someone like Jesus Luzardo. He was another top prospect who was written off (by the As) and the Marlins were seemingly able to fix him and help him realize his potential. Austin Hays, on the other hand, has very little or no upside. 

No doubt, Adell has upside.  So does Mateo.   The difference is that Mateo is a plus defensive player.   He gives you value even if he doesn't get any better offensively.   Adell is a clunker out in LF.   He has to hit to give you value.   He could figure it out but usually the guys who strike out 10 times more than they walk, don't figure it out.   He actually regressed from his 2021 season.   If Jo Adell was released, I'd love to take a flier on him.   I wouldn't give up something of real value for him.    Even Austin Hays has some value.  He might not have much upside but Adell is like a lottery ticket at this point.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

No doubt, Adell has upside.  So does Mateo.   The difference is that Mateo is a plus defensive player.   He gives you value even if he doesn't get any better offensively.   Adell is a clunker out in LF.   He has to hit to give you value.   He could figure it out but usually the guys who strike out 10 times more than they walk, don't figure it out.   He actually regressed from his 2021 season.   If Jo Adell was released, I'd love to take a flier on him.   I wouldn't give up something of real value for him.    Even Austin Hays has some value.  He might not have much upside but Adell is like a lottery ticket at this point.

Did scouting reports say Adell would be a problem in the OF?  I don’t recall that.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Did scouting reports say Adell would be a problem in the OF?  I don’t recall that.

Per Baseball America

 

Ranked Los Angeles Angels #1 prospect in 2021
Hitting: 50. Power: 70. Running: 60. Fielding: 50. Arm: 60.

TRACK RECORD: The 10th overall pick in 2017, Adell made his major league debut in 2020 and flashed some of the tools that made him the organization’s most touted prospect since Mike Trout. In his peak moment, he crushed a 437-foot homer to left field that left his bat at 110 mph and also hit a 107 mph laser off the top of the right field wall in a 16-3 Angels victory against the Mariners. But that performance was more the exception than the rule during an uneven rookie season marked by a high strikeout rate, lengthy power droughts and several defensive gaffes. Adell had just 27 games of Triple-A experience when he was called up in early August to replace slumping veteran Justin Upton. His lack of upper-level experience showed. He looked overmatched at the plate, hitting .161/.212/.266 with a 42% strikeout rate, and was uncomfortable and unsure of himself in right field. He committed a rare four-base error in which a fly ball popped out of his glove and over the wall on Aug. 9 and had another ball pop out of his glove over the fence on the final day of the season.

SCOUTING REPORT: Despite Adell’s ugly debut, evaluators still view him as a potential impact player. He is a broad-shouldered, muscular and dynamic athlete who boasts plus-plus raw power, excellent bat speed and quick hands that allow him to drive the ball to all fields and get to high pitches. He has plus speed, which translates into more first-to-third sprints than stolen bases, a plus arm and a work ethic and willingness to learn that draw rave reviews from coaches. But big league pitchers exposed holes in a swing that was too long at times and an approach that made him too vulnerable to secondary pitches. A month into the season, Adell tried to alter his swing path to get the ball in the air more and quieted his stance to remove some of the movement from his pre-swing setup. His pitch recognition and plate discipline improved with experience, even if the results didn’t come. He was more mechanical and less fluid in right field during his first month in the big leagues, but his jumps and reads off the bat improved as he grew more comfortable and confident over the final month.

THE FUTURE: Lofty expectations for Adell were tempered a bit by his shaky rookie season, but like Trout, Aaron Judge and other future stars who had shaky debuts, he has the maturity, intelligence and attention to detail to make the necessary adjustments. With more experience, he still projects to develop into an all-star-caliber player.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

My point was I don't think his glove is a enough of a difference maker to justify his bat. Not based on what he did last season. 

I think you overrate what a typical corner OF’s bat is.  Hays had a 103 OPS+ last year.  The average LF was 105, the average RF was 102.   So, Hays was maybe a hair below average for a corner OF.

I’m not going to say I wasn’t disappointed with Hays’ production last year, because I was.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

On June 27, 2022 Hays stats were 287/345/489/834, 11 HR, 45 RBI in 276 AB.   That is a MLB regular.  In fact he was being talked about as an All-Star.   Shortly there after he was hurt and the numbers came tumbling down.

Hays has gone back and forth as to whether his bad second half was related to injuries or not.  Here’s his latest on the topic:

“I think the biggest difference between the first half and the second half was some mechanical issues, and just being able to identify what those issues were, why I was missing as many pitches as I was in the second half, and then just pressing once I started to miss my pitches to hit,” Hays said. “I started to expand the zone more. So, just continuing to swing at strikes, and having good, clean mechanics should lead to the good first half that I had throughout the course of the season.

“So, the biggest goal this year, once again, is just to be healthy and be on the field every single day, and then I’ll just work as hard as I can in the cage to make sure I have those good, clean mechanics all throughout the season.”

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/hays-aims-to-stay-healthy-and-keep-hitting-throughout-the-season

So, no talk of injuries there.   But other times he has alluded to injuries being a factor.  At the end of the day, I’m not sure it matters.   He needs to be more consistent, regardless of the cause of the inconsistency.

 

[LTO's]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Did scouting reports say Adell would be a problem in the OF?  I don’t recall that.

Fangraphs had him at a 40/45. It's honestly probably worse than that. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

Fangraphs had him at a 40/45. It's honestly probably worse than that. 

But that doesn’t mean it will continue to be. He turns 24 in April. Still very young. He has tons of tools and great athleticism. 
 

The problem is, you have to want to be good at defense to be good at defense and with his bat being an issue (and what really gets you paid), I’m guessing he works more on his hitting than his fielding.

I would gladly take him. I’m not sure if I would deal Mateo for him but I don’t think it’s some dumb thought either..or course, I also don’t believe in Mateo like some here do(or at least act like they do).

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But that doesn’t mean it will continue to be. He turns 24 in April. Still very young. He has tons of tools and great athleticism. 
 

The problem is, you have to want to be good at defense to be good at defense and with his bat being an issue (and what really gets you paid), I’m guessing he works more on his hitting than his fielding.

I would gladly take him. I’m not sure if I would deal Mateo for him but I don’t think it’s some dumb thought either..or course, I also don’t believe in Mateo like some here do(or at least act like they do).

It doesn't but at this point I think most people would be surprised if he ever became anything more than a below average corner outfielder. Really he only has two tools. Power and speed. His speed is only really first to third though. He doesn't steal bases and it doesn't help him in the OF. I think this is why people are really way overreacting to Mullins' drop in sprint speed. It's a fluctuating stat and only a fraction of what makes someone a good fielder. 

I would be fine trading Mateo or Hays. I don't think either will be starters on the next great Orioles team. However, the fact is that both of them are very recent 3 WAR players. Trading a 3 WAR player for a guys who is very likely just not good would be very questionable and I'd want more certainty in that package. 

[Joep]

So if Trevor Bauer was not charged or convicted of any accusations.....Why would the story  not be "He said She said" ......he would be a cheap signing for the O's since the Dodgers are paying the bulk of his salary .......O's would have a true Ace in the rotation.............. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Hays has gone back and forth as to whether his bad second half was related to injuries or not.  Here’s his latest on the topic:

“I think the biggest difference between the first half and the second half was some mechanical issues, and just being able to identify what those issues were, why I was missing as many pitches as I was in the second half, and then just pressing once I started to miss my pitches to hit,” Hays said. “I started to expand the zone more. So, just continuing to swing at strikes, and having good, clean mechanics should lead to the good first half that I had throughout the course of the season.

“So, the biggest goal this year, once again, is just to be healthy and be on the field every single day, and then I’ll just work as hard as I can in the cage to make sure I have those good, clean mechanics all throughout the season.”

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/hays-aims-to-stay-healthy-and-keep-hitting-throughout-the-season

So, no talk of injuries there.   But other times he has alluded to injuries being a factor.  At the end of the day, I’m not sure it matters.   He needs to be more consistent, regardless of the cause of the inconsistency.

 

Injuries will cause mechanical issues.  I am sure Hays does not like being seen as injury prone so he may not refer to it like that.   In fact, Hays has talked about how he stayed on the field most of the season.   

I'd like to see him play when he is healthy and when injuries cause him problems he should go on the IL.  Maybe the O's depth this year will allow that to happen.

Edited February 10, 2023 by wildcard

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I almost laughed, but I caught myself.  It would have been more of a snicker than a laugh and that would have been rude.  I just smiled and tried my best to look confused when he said that. 

The thing was is that we were having a decent conversation up until that point, he wasn't completely ignorant to baseball.  I mean, the shop sells other stuff than baseball cards so I didn't know if he was more coherent when it came to other sports but he knew what he was talking about up until that point.  Really nice guy but that was just weird and I didn't want to laugh at him to make him feel bad.

I bet he was much more knowledgeable on Pokemon card or whatever the top kids card is now.

[HakunaSakata]

On 2/10/2023 at 10:58 AM, MarCakes21 said:

Bleacher Report has put together packages of trades given most of the offseason signings are complete:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10063751-fresh-trade-packages-for-mlbs-top-rumored-targets?fbclid=IwAR1mJ7FaI9Nf7UEn_TXOkCH-tqdaXfx0tveR1Fwg5VAWIytS_p5lBbLvK-o

Two are relevant for the O's:

Mateo to LAA for Jo Adell - personally I pass.  While I think we could improve our outfield, this is a pass for me.  I think we can get more in an area of great weakness (SP) for Mateo.

Bryan Reynolds to LAD for Miller, Pepoit, and Outman - I think this has relevance for a Mullins trade.  Reynolds is likely worth more, but I would expect a similar haul in return if we were to trade Mullins.

Thoughts?

Excellent write-up on Jo Adell if anyone's interested. Replying to the initial comment since his name wasn't include in the title of the thread (to give context). 

https://www.pitcherlist.com/adells-approach-what-jo-adell-must-improve-on-in-2023/

 

[sportsfan8703]

On 2/10/2023 at 4:25 PM, Sports Guy said:

But that doesn’t mean it will continue to be. He turns 24 in April. Still very young. He has tons of tools and great athleticism. 
 

The problem is, you have to want to be good at defense to be good at defense and with his bat being an issue (and what really gets you paid), I’m guessing he works more on his hitting than his fielding.

I would gladly take him. I’m not sure if I would deal Mateo for him but I don’t think it’s some dumb thought either..or course, I also don’t believe in Mateo like some here do(or at least act like they do).

Good analysis.  It's not as crazy as some are making it out to be.  Adell is only one year older than Cowser.  It's not like Mateo walks a ton either.  I would strongly consider making the trade and sticking Gunnar at SS.  You don't lose anything this year, and you could hit big on an OF for years.