How Will Nick Hit in 2009?

[rlc]

I thought DT kept moving Markakis down to second and Mora to third in the lineup simply because Mora hit bettter with RISP, even though is BA is considerably lower?

Easy enough to check:

             Nick           MelRISP   .311/.435/.523 .360/.417/.547Second .345/.439/.534 .225/.277/.372Third  .271/.374/.452 .327/.390/.574

Markakis hit well with RISP, but Mora was even better. The more significant split, though, is that Mel was just killing the team batting second, while Nick was somewhat pedestrian batting third.

As for what Trembley's reasoning actually was, who knows? Hitting Mora third allowed him to hit Huff fourth and still have a L-R-L batting order, which seems to be something he likes to do.

[OrangeJerseys]

I presume with a Louisville Slugger.

.299/27 HR/122 RBI/.501 SLG

[Old#5fan]

Easy enough to check:

             Nick           MelRISP   .311/.435/.523 .360/.417/.547Second .345/.439/.534 .225/.277/.372Third  .271/.374/.452 .327/.390/.574

Markakis hit well with RISP, but Mora was even better. The more significant split, though, is that Mel was just killing the team batting second, while Nick was somewhat pedestrian batting third.

As for what Trembley's reasoning actually was, who knows? Hitting Mora third allowed him to hit Huff fourth and still have a L-R-L batting order, which seems to be something he likes to do.

Thanks. Good post. To me an alleged hitter on the verge of greatness should want to and actually relish hitting third. If Markakis is going to be something special or a superstar as some who think they are wise presume, I think he should be flourishing not pedestrian batting third. But then again, thats just me. What do I know?

[Andy_Dufresne]

Nick has tacked on roughly 50 OPS points every year. Is it not a stretch to think he can approach .950 this year?

I think he can OPS anywhere from .900-.950 this year and if I had to pick I think he falls around .930. Just a hunch.

At the very least, I think he has a year like last year.

Josh Hamilton had an OPS last season of .901, he hit 32 HRs 130 RBI hit .300.

If the Orioles have any inclination that Markakis will have an OPS around 930, they need to give him his 6/70 contract.

.930 OPS would make MArkais one of the elite players in baseball, considering ARod and Teixeira had OPS over .960.

BTW Milton Bradley had an OPS of .999, Pujols and Chipper Jones were over 1.100

[KakesForROY]

Josh Hamilton had an OPS last season of .901, he hit 32 HRs 130 RBI hit .300.

If the Orioles have any inclination that Markakis will have an OPS around 930, they need to give him his 6/70 contract.

.930 OPS would make MArkais one of the elite players in baseball, considering ARod and Teixeira had OPS over .960.

BTW Milton Bradley had an OPS of .999, Pujols and Chipper Jones were over 1.100

Considering Nick put up a .306/.406/.491 line last year (.897 OPS), it would only take a 5 point bump in OBP and a 28 point increase in SLG to get there (to .930).

I don't think it'll happen, but if a few of those doubles start leaving the park there is a chance.

[Andy_Dufresne]

Considering Nick put up a .306/.406/.491 line last year (.897 OPS), it would only take a 5 point bump in OBP and a 28 point increase in SLG to get there (to .930).

I don't think it'll happen, but if a few of those doubles start leaving the park there is a chance.

If the O's had someone hitting behind Nick to drive him in from 2nd, he wouldn't need to have 30HRs to be a super star. And if they had someone with speed and a good OBP batting second Nick would have 120RBI instead of 87.

A .310 hitter with 45 doubles and 23 HRs and a .390+ OBP would make Nick one of the premier players in baseball. But without someone to drive him in and a couple of players to get on base, his talent may go to waste.

[Hallas]

.330/.470/.670 and an MVP award, obviously.

[Hallas]

Thanks. Good post. To me an alleged hitter on the verge of greatness should want to and actually relish hitting third. If Markakis is going to be something special or a superstar as some who think they are wise presume, I think he should be flourishing not pedestrian batting third. But then again, thats just me. What do I know?

Somewhat unrelated as you're addressing the common notions of a #3 hitter, but having your best hitter at #2 is actually a better move statistically than having him at #3. With Roberts at 1, Markakis at 2, and monstrous-Huff at 4, the O's batting lineup was actually pretty-well optimized for maximal run output.

(reference the chapter of "Inside the Book" on batting order.)

I know you've sort of got it in for Markakis though, so I think you're looking for reasons to hate.

[Andy_Dufresne]

Somewhat unrelated as you're addressing the common notions of a #3 hitter, but having your best hitter at #2 is actually a better move statistically than having him at #3. With Roberts at 1, Markakis at 2, and monstrous-Huff at 4, the O's batting lineup was actually pretty-well optimized for maximal run output.

(reference the chapter of "Inside the Book" on batting order.)

I know you've sort of got it in for Markakis though, so I think you're looking for reasons to hate.

Interesting theory about the best hitter hitting second. What teams have employed the strategy? I don't recall Pujols, Manny, Chipper, ARod, Mauer batting second. When was the last time a Batting title went to a #2 hitter.

Jeter bats second, is he the Yankees best hitter?

[Hallas]

Interesting theory about the best hitter hitting second. What teams have employed the strategy? I don't recall Pujols, Manny, Chipper, ARod, Mauer batting second. When was the last time a Batting title went to a #2 hitter.

Jeter bats second, is he the Yankees best hitter?

Actually the best hitters should be shuffled at 1, 2, and 4. The general rule is that your best OBP guy goes 1st, and your best SLG guy goes 4th. Ideally we'd actually have Nick batting 1st and Roberts batting 2nd, because Roberts' abilities as a baserunner are generally brushed aside in the equation, but I'm happy with a .380 OBP guy leading off

The logic behind this is that the #4 hitter will bat leadoff 20% of the time in the 2nd inning even with great hitters ahead of him, and leadoff is a far better-leverage situation than no one on, 2 outs, which a #3 hitter sees 35% of the time.

But I'm largely saying this to promote discussion, as the difference between the best lineup and the worst lineup is pretty meager, and most teams do a good enough job approximating that it's better to stick people where they're comfortable.

[Fairfax Bird]

Markakis ... .310/.410/.500

Jones ... .280/.325/.450

Pie ... .240/.310./425

[Leitch]

.320/.431/.570

[Flosman]

I can take your ribbing but now you are going to get some from me. I will say that Markakis has about a 1/26 chance of even representing the Orioles in the All-Star game next season (same as any other player on the roster) and a below 1 % of ever and I mean EVER winning an MVP. That is the biggest joke I have ever read on this forum bar none.:laughlol: He hasn't even shown himself to be the best player on the Orioles roster yet and he's gonna jump to best in the AL? That would be a quantum leap bar none! You need a reality check Mister!:eektf:

To think that Nick is not capable if 325/425/600 and 30+ hrs is very illogical, IMO. Combine those numbers with his baserunning and defense and you have a MVP type season. He won't win it because of the team he is on. BTW ask anyone in baseball who the best player on the O's is.

[Old#5fan]

To think that Nick is not capable if 325/425/600 and 30+ hrs is very illogical, IMO. Combine those numbers with his baserunning and defense and you have a MVP type season. He won't win it because of the team he is on. BTW ask anyone in baseball who the best player on the O's is.

News Flash for ya! He wouldn't win it either if he was on the Phillies, Rays, Red Sox, or Yankees because he wouldn't be the best on any of those teams. Just another good hitter.

[NewMarketSean]

OldFan thinks Markakis as overrated because he doesn't consider the ability to draw walks as a positive trait in a baseball player. So he looks at the .055 increase in OBP that Markakis has made over his 3 seasons in the majors (despite his average only increasing .016 points over that time) and thumbs his nose at it.

OldFan was raised on baseball card stats before they started to add OBP and OPS to them. So you really can't blame him. He is a product of his environment when people thought RBI's were the best stat to judge a player by despite the fact that they are totally reliable on what players batting before you do.

Oh and nothing will ever make him change his mind.