Heston Kjerstad 2023

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Didnt prospects in the recent past, skip AAA altogether? I know Machado did. So did Markakis. Kjerstad was drafted higher than both of them. I just know there used to be less emphasis on AAA for guys seen as major leaguers. 

Prior to Elias.

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Didnt prospects in the recent past, skip AAA altogether? I know Machado did. So did Markakis. Kjerstad was drafted higher than both of them. I just know there used to be less emphasis on AAA for guys seen as major leaguers. 

The game is way different since Markakis came up as a prospect. That was at least an era ago. The game wasn’t as analytic heavy as it is now. There was no talk on launch angles, exit velo, etc. 

The game in particular prospect management is even a lot different since the time that Machado was a prospect. Back then it was believed (and even stated by Buck and Duquette) that AA was the hardest level. And that is where top prospects were evaluated the most. 

Now you rarely see any guys jump from AA to MLB. It’s hard enough to acclimate from AAA to MLB. The jump in talent is crazy different from AAA to MLB now. Just ask Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, JRod, Witt Jr, Volpe, etc.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The game is way different since Markakis came up as a prospect. That was at least an era ago. The game wasn’t as analytic heavy as it is now. There was no talk on launch angles, exit velo, etc. 

The game in particular prospect management is even a lot different since the time that Machado was a prospect. Back then it was believed (and even stated by Buck and Duquette) that AA was the hardest level. And that is where top prospects were evaluated the most. 

Now you rarely see any guys jump from AA to MLB. It’s hard enough to acclimate from AAA to MLB. The jump in talent is crazy different from AAA to MLB now. Just ask Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, JRod, Witt Jr, Volpe, etc.

Braves.

[jabba72]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

The game is way different since Markakis came up as a prospect. That was at least an era ago. The game wasn’t as analytic heavy as it is now. There was no talk on launch angles, exit velo, etc. 

The game in particular prospect management is even a lot different since the time that Machado was a prospect. Back then it was believed (and even stated by Buck and Duquette) that AA was the hardest level. And that is where top prospects were evaluated the most. 

Now you rarely see any guys jump from AA to MLB. It’s hard enough to acclimate from AAA to MLB. The jump in talent is crazy different from AAA to MLB now. Just ask Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, JRod, Witt Jr, Volpe, etc.

I knew I remembered hearing that somewhere, it wasnt that long ago... the difference in talent in MLB hasnt increased that greatly in 10 years has it?

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, orioles22 said:

He went to college and then had a health issue. I think that explains his age. I don't know how that matters anyway. He should have plenty of time for a nice career with the Orioles, whether he starts at 25 or 27.

I don’t think that they want to start any serious prospects in MLB at 26, let alone 27. You are cutting into guys prime years then and ability to make money.

That might not matter to you. But remember this is a game/industry of relationships. You have to deal with that players agent again for other guys in the future. 

And even if you think “oh well, so what. The O’s won’t sign any free agents anyway.” You better believe that will come up as a serious issue during collective bargaining time. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Braves.

1 team out of how many?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

1 team out of how many?

There are 30 teams.

Have you seen how rapidly the Angels promote players to the majors?

I mentioned Bryce Miller earlier today, guess who didn't play in AAA?

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I knew I remembered hearing that somewhere, it wasnt that long ago... the difference in talent in MLB hasnt increased that greatly in 10 years has it?

The game has changed a lot in the last 10 or so years. Just look at how pitchers are handle (rarely third time through lineup now, concepts like “openers”, rookies rarely being allowed to throw 100 pitches, increase in pitching velo, etc.) On the hitting side you have launch angles, exit velo, being able to handle frequent triple digit velo. And that’s not to mention the invention of a pitch Ike the sweeper (since Ohtani).

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

There are 30 teams.

Have you seen how rapidly the Angels promote players to the majors?

I mentioned Bryce Miller earlier today, guess who didn't play in AAA?

Are those example the exceptions or how the average minor leaguer is handled by the typical org?

[orioles22]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t think that they want to start any serious prospects in MLB at 26, let alone 27. You are cutting into guys prime years then and ability to make money.

That might not matter to you. But remember this is a game/industry of relationships. You have to deal with that players agent again for other guys in the future. 

And even if you think “oh well, so what. The O’s won’t sign any free agents anyway.” You better believe that will come up as a serious issue during collective bargaining time. 

That's a little dramatic. Kjerstad had a heart issure that kept him out of action for a year, or maybe two. You think someone will complain that it's somehow the Orioles' fault he is delayed getting to the majors by half a year when he missed much more time than that due to the fault of no one.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, orioles22 said:

That's a little dramatic. Kjerstad had a heart issure that kept him out of action for a year, or maybe two. You think someone will complain that it's somehow the Orioles' fault he is delayed getting to the majors by half a year when he missed much more time than that due to the fault of no one.

Nothing dramatic about trying to keep a first round pick (top 5 I believe) in the Minors until age 27. That will not go well. But thankfully we won’t have to worry about that with how well he’s doing. He will be here by latest next year.

[orioles22]

No one said the Orioles would hold him down two more years if he's ready. My point was they aren't going to call him up just because he's a certain age. I also don't think keeping him in the minors if he isn't ready will cause problems within the baseball industry. I also think he should make it by next year if he continues to hit like he has been. I just don't think the Orioles are going to rush because they are in a hurry due to his age.

[AnythingO's]

I probably started this pi$$ing contest by proposing HK be promoted mid-June because of his performance to date AFT-ST-AA. In my defense and to hopefully temper this a bit, this is what was said about HK in ME's recent interview. This is after 169 ABs at AA with an OPS over 1 and SO rate 16% (26 SO/12 BB). Fangraphs has his speed on the bases as 5.9 with 6 being Excellent (3 triples). Base path speed behind only Watson and Donta Williams, ahead of Prieto, Mayo, and Rhodes in the BAL AA system. 

Through 38 games with Bowie, Kjerstad is slashing .313/.391/.613 with nine doubles, three triples, 10 homers and 21 RBIs. It’s not common for such a mature hitter to be at this level, but the No. 2 overall Draft pick in 2020 missed all of ‘21 due to myocarditis and early ‘22 with a left hamstring strain.

Now, Kjerstad (the Orioles’ No. 4 prospect and MLB Pipeline’s No. 51 overall prospect) is on the precipice of potentially being promoted to Triple-A.

“We’re talking about what to do with him next,” Elias said. “Not saying anything’s imminent, but it’s becoming a constant conversation in the front office about when’s the right move for him.”

[Sports Guy]

Seeing some stuff in twitter that Kjerstad is being promoted to AAA tomorrow.

[linedrive]

On 5/27/2023 at 3:58 PM, Bemorewins said:

The game has changed a lot in the last 10 or so years. Just look at how pitchers are handle (rarely third time through lineup now, concepts like “openers”, rookies rarely being allowed to throw 100 pitches, increase in pitching velo, etc.) On the hitting side you have launch angles, exit velo, being able to handle frequent triple digit velo. And that’s not to mention the invention of a pitch Ike the sweeper (since Ohtani).

Regarding how things have changed, I think another thing to consider is that there are fewer minor league teams and fewer rounds in the draft. So the talent is less diluted, and the play is more competitive.