Heston Kjerstad 2023

[Gurgi]

Just got a double in the left center gap.  

[deward]

4 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

The defensive position question marks around Kjerstad (and Mayo) are a bit concerning. Yet, if he hits like we think he can, Kjerstad could DH maybe 70% of the time and perhaps play a bit in RF or even 1B (if he can develop there.)  If it comes to fruition that he's mainly a DH instead of a RF (or 1B), being a big contributor at the plate will alleviate any prior concerns.

I have no concerns about Kjerstad's ability to play RF. And I have high confidence that Mayo can transition to 1B.

[Tony-OH]

On 7/30/2023 at 11:08 AM, AnythingO's said:

Some data on Heston's defense in RF yesterday.

https://www.milb.com/video/heston-kjerstad-s-amazing-throw?t=playerid-677008https://www.milb.com/video/heston-kjerstad-s-amazing-throw?t=playerid-677008

Where is the data? I only saw the end of he throw from very shallow RF. Did i see the wrong video? Did they talk about the arm strength and I missed it?

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t get the feeling Kjerstad is a liability in RF.  I think he’s good enough to be an average defensively RF.   I think he’s Santander with better speed and that’s meant as a compliment.

This is pretty much where I am with Kjerstad defensively though he doesn't have Santander's arm.

[BohKnowsBmore]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is pretty much where I am with Kjerstad defensively though he doesn't have Santander's arm.

Out of curiosity, where do you see both guys on the "efficient frontier" of arm vs. speed? If one is moving from Santander to Kjerstad, is the trade away of one unit of "arm" for one unit of "speed" a plus in terms of overall ability / value in this scenario?

[RZNJ]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is pretty much where I am with Kjerstad defensively though he doesn't have Santander's arm.

Really?  I’d call Santander’s arm solid/average for RF.  Kjerstad’s seems pretty close to that.

[Tony-OH]

55 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Really?  I’d call Santander’s arm solid/average for RF.  Kjerstad’s seems pretty close to that.

At his peak, his Santander's arm was well above average (84 percentile in 2021) but now he has 53rd percentile arm overall. I've only seen a few throws from Kjerstad over his career and they are inconsistent. Now saying that, throws are hard to judge from most minor league coverages so I do think throwing it's one of the areas where I have the least data and have to judge it off a few throws. 

I will say that I've never really seen a wow throw from him so from what I've seen, and again, it's a limited data scouting eye test, I'm going to say he ends up a little below average or maybe right around average a best. But maybe I'll see more throws to be able to make that call. better.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Out of curiosity, where do you see both guys on the "efficient frontier" of arm vs. speed? If one is moving from Santander to Kjerstad, is the trade away of one unit of "arm" for one unit of "speed" a plus in terms of overall ability / value in this scenario?

Yikes man, I'm not sure I can do that for you effectively. I'm not aware of a study that has looked at that or even how that would be judged accurately. Once in the big leagues you get jump and arm strength along with OAA which is defined by 0-5 star chances an outfielder has. 

I do think Kjerstad is faster than Santander overall, but I don't think he's going to cover much more ground because Santander is actually pretty route efficient. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yikes man, I'm not sure I can do that for you effectively. I'm not aware of a study that has looked at that or even how that would be judged accurately. Once in the big leagues you get jump and arm strength along with OAA which is defined by 0-5 star chances an outfielder has. 

I do think Kjerstad is faster than Santander overall, but I don't think he's going to cover much more ground because Santander is actually pretty route efficient. 

Sorry, didn't mean to imply I was looking for an overly-scientific answer (but see how it reads that way). Maybe a simpler way to put it, which package do you think makes for the stronger overall fielder (i.e., HK's speed/arm/other combo vs. AS's speed/arm/other combo)?

What I was trying to get at in the one marginal unit of arm vs. speed conversation is that for a guy like Mark Trumbo, for example, I think a proportional trade of arm strength for speed would be very much worth it in terms of him being able to play outfield credibly. Conversely, a Brett Gardner type might not have the same calculation in theory.

[AnythingO's]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Where is the data? I only saw the end of he throw from very shallow RF. Did i see the wrong video? Did they talk about the arm strength and I missed it?

Yeah, poor wording on my part re: "data", RZNJ reacted to that as well. Here is what I said in response to him. I agree with what you said about HK and that play. I was just struck that he got the runner on 2B out at the plate. He got to the ball quick and made a good throw.

Well I said "some" so perhaps I should have said "some info", my bad. Wasn't trying to portray a complete picture of his RF defense. I think he is faster than he is credited to be. Maybe not in sprint speed but the Fangraphs Spd ranking likes him on the base paths so instinct and decision making play a part. He has 5 triples bet Bow and NOR this year in about 325 ABs and each video isn't a close play. I hope he could be a step up from AS but his reads and routes need to improve per Tony. It seems like the transition to upper deck MLB parks really hurts some players.

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Sorry, didn't mean to imply I was looking for an overly-scientific answer (but see how it reads that way). Maybe a simpler way to put it, which package do you think makes for the stronger overall fielder (i.e., HK's speed/arm/other combo vs. AS's speed/arm/other combo)?

What I was trying to get at in the one marginal unit of arm vs. speed conversation is that for a guy like Mark Trumbo, for example, I think a proportional trade of arm strength for speed would be very much worth it in terms of him being able to play outfield credibly. Conversely, a Brett Gardner type might not have the same calculation in theory.

I think they will be awash overall though runners could start to run a bit more on plays unless Kjerstad shows he can throw strong and accurately. We'll just have to see.

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Sorry, didn't mean to imply I was looking for an overly-scientific answer (but see how it reads that way). Maybe a simpler way to put it, which package do you think makes for the stronger overall fielder (i.e., HK's speed/arm/other combo vs. AS's speed/arm/other combo)?

What I was trying to get at in the one marginal unit of arm vs. speed conversation is that for a guy like Mark Trumbo, for example, I think a proportional trade of arm strength for speed would be very much worth it in terms of him being able to play outfield credibly. Conversely, a Brett Gardner type might not have the same calculation in theory.

I think this probably could be quantified, and to some extent, is.  Fangraphs breaks down UZR into ARM, RangeR and ErrR.  So, you can see how many runs are gained or lost from a player’s arm vs. his range.  Eyeballing the spread from best to worst in each category over the last 3 years, I’d say arm has slightly more impact than range in RF, range has more impact than arm in LF.

[Just Regular]

He went 5-for-6 in yesterday's doubleheader to leapfrog Cowser in AAA wRC+ on the year.

28 loooong days from today to the Gunnar debut anniversary date.

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[baltfan]

6 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

 

Hey, maybe we have a guy that might actually sign an extension. Get it done Elias.