A lot of little moves = a significantly better team?

[srock]

There is no move the Orioles have made this offseason that is dramatic. But in a slow and steady way, MacPhail has improved the team for 2009.

Izturis > Hernandez, Bynum, Cintron, Fahey, Castro as starting SS

Gomez > that same group as utility infielder

Wieters > Hernandez as starting C

Zaun > Quiroz as backup C

Freel > Payton as 4th OF

Uehara > DCab as starting P

Hendrickson > Burres as swing man

Now, I don't mean to suggest that those moves accomplish anything much for the long term, or that they vault the Orioles into contention for 2009. I don't even mean to suggest that it's likely this is now a .500 team. All I mean to suggest is that for 2009, this is a perceptibly better team than in 2008. Much better at SS, the bench, and behind the plate.

If I have reservations about this, it's mainly that MacPhail still hasn't done enough to solidify the rotation. And 1B (or DH) is still in question (though I'm willing to ride with Salazar). But even so, I think the 2009 team has fewer glaring holes than in 2008.

These moves ensure I will continue my MLB.TV subscription and give me incentive to attend more minor league games.

Would I do these things without these moves? Probably...

[Orioles West]

There is no move the Orioles have made this offseason that is dramatic. But in a slow and steady way, MacPhail has improved the team for 2009.

Izturis > Hernandez, Bynum, Cintron, Fahey, Castro as starting SS

Gomez > that same group as utility infielder

Wieters > Hernandez as starting C

Zaun > Quiroz as backup C

Freel > Payton as 4th OF

Uehara > DCab as starting P

Hendrickson > Burres as swing man

Now, I don't mean to suggest that those moves accomplish anything much for the long term, or that they vault the Orioles into contention for 2009. I don't even mean to suggest that it's likely this is now a .500 team. All I mean to suggest is that for 2009, this is a perceptibly better team than in 2008. Much better at SS, the bench, and behind the plate.

If I have reservations about this, it's mainly that MacPhail still hasn't done enough to solidify the rotation. And 1B (or DH) is still in question (though I'm willing to ride with Salazar). But even so, I think the 2009 team has fewer glaring holes than in 2008.

As to the original question, I wouldn't say significantly better, but it is a better baseball team.

My wish list would include another veteran arm before we head to spring training. I honestly think there will be enough injuries and setbacks that there will be plenty of room for the younger pitchers to get an opportunity to show their stuff.

That aside, in any other division, this is a team that could make a little noise, but in the AL East, these O's are going to need an effort like the first half of last season to keep it interesting.

-Don

[Sports Guy]

Randy Wolf should be a target.

Offer him 2/16. He could be our #2 starter and is a decent arm to have to plug a hole in the rotation next year if need be...

2/16 in this market is too much for Wolf.

[TonySoprano]

I didn't start this thread to give "credit" to MacPhail, just to analyze the state of the team.

You said, 'in a slow and steady way, MacPhail has improved the team for 2009" and listed Wieters.

[weams]

Last year at this time I wrote that what excited me about the 2008 Orioles was that we finally had a crop of young pitchers at Norfolk ready to step into the big leagues. After the Bedard deal last year we were looking at a rotation of Guthrie, Cabrera, Loewen, and 2 of {Patton, Albers, Burres}. So I figured we'd have one of those last 3 at Norfolk, plus prospects at Norfolk like Liz, Olson, Penn, etc. It seemed to me that the entire Norfolk rotation would be made up of prospects instead of Chris Waters types.

I felt that FINALLY, when pitcher injuries came, we'd be able to bring up genuine prospects instead of having to get Victor Zambrano types. No September collapse in 2008, nosirreee.

That's how it seemed to me at the time.

Now I start feeling the same way....I start thinking of having Bergeson/Hernandez/Tillman in Norfolk ready to come up at mid-season, with Arrietta not too far behind, or of Matusz doing a David Price -like dash through A-AA-AAA to the majors by September. So now when our starters falter or get hurt we will bring up guys I can get excited about to replace them.

But I have to temper that excitement again. Because I learned the lesson last year. You NEVER have enough pitching. Last year we had 119 games started by guys with ERAs over 5; 74 of our games were started by guys who finished with ERAs over 6.00!

I refuse to let myself get fooled again.

Hope springs eternal in the human breast;

Man never Is, but always To be blest:

The soul, uneasy and confin'd from home,

Rests and expatiates in a life to come.

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on you...

[Nigel Tufnel]

I think there are times when small changes can have an impact. Last year's team probably could have been decent, except for three glaring weaknesses - shortstop, starting pitching, and backup catcher. If you were going to give out letter grades, then those three positions would have all gotten an F last year, and SS would have been thankful there's no such thing as an F-minus.

So if you can turn those F's into something between a C-minus to a C-plus, then you have a chance to improve.

But not always - I think we all remember a couple of years ago when the O's tried to turn their F-minus-minus bullpen into a C. But they totally went about it the wrong way - they overpaid guys, and they signed them to 3-year deals. Signing a bunch of halfway decent players to replace terrible ones can improve your team from horrible to OK, but you're never going to win anything if you've got too many C-minus guys locked onto your roster. Or if the salaries you're paying them affect your ability to sign guys who are actually good.

So I think that's the real success of this offseason. They've managed to upgrade SS and backup catcher without spending too much or for too many years. And the same with Uehara, with the added bonus of possibly getting something better than a C with him.

I'd still like to see another starting pitcher added, but only for a relatively cheap 1 or 2 year deal. And I'd sign Dunn for 3/33 or less, if he'd come here. But no more locking in of mediocrity to long-term deals.

[ChaosLex]

Izturis > Hernandez, Bynum, Cintron, Fahey, Castro as starting SS

Gomez > that same group as utility infielder

Wieters > Hernandez as starting C

Zaun > Quiroz as backup C

Freel > Payton as 4th OF

Uehara > DCab as starting P

Hendrickson > Burres as swing man

As someone that's been rather critical of MacPhail this offseason, I must say, you make a compelling argument. Rep to you, fine sir!

[NJOriolesFan]

Who do you want us to go after and for what contract?

Me, personally, I would sign Ben Sheets to a 3 year contract, the third year can be an option even have a 4th year option too. I would also trade for Rich Hill. I would get Felix Pie in that deal too. Hill and Pie along with whatever makes the deal work for Brian Roberts. I guess I would take Cedeno back too. Have a middle infield with Cedeno, Gomez, Freel, Izturis and also sign Ty Wigginton. The rest of the offense is Wieters, Zaun, Huff, Mora, Pie, Scott, Jones and Markakis.

I love a rotation of:

Ben Sheets

Jeremy Guthrie

Koji Uehera

Rich Hill

Garrett Olson

With a bullpen of:

Chris Ray

George Sherrill

Jim Johnson

Jamie Walker

Dennis Sarfate

2 of Matt Albers, Mark Hendrickson, Hayden Penn, Rhadames Liz and Danys Baez. I guess I would prefer to trade Walker and dump Baez and go with Hendrickson, Penn and Albers in the bullpen.

[NCRaven]

You said, 'in a slow and steady way, MacPhail has improved the team for 2009" and listed Wieters.

Okay, he didn't draft Wieters. But, he did trade Hernandez for a useful player and some prospects and that clears the way for Wieters to start at some point this season. Good enough?

[bluedog]

That pitching gap is deeper and more ominous. Last year we began with Guthrie, Loewen, a temporarily effective Cabrera, a very effective Burres(in April) and early on a solid Steve Trachsel...now were talking about giving Danys Baez a shot to start! We have a Japanese pitcher who has never faced big league hitters as our apparent number two man. If Guthrie goes down at all, this could be the worst staff in all of baseball. All the Ryan Freel's in the world wont make us even slightly better then.I still think and hope AM has something up his sleeve.Sheets? Even a one year deal? Garland?Hayden Penn?

Someone who can throw strikes? I hope they dont throw J.J. out there..or Albers. Let then log innings in the pen.

Yet another Dunn reference, though I know it falls on deaf ears.

With another big booming bat, our offense cold make up alot of ground for our horrible pitching...Please consider Adam Dunn.Even a three year deal wouldnt spoil any "rebuilding"plans.

Wow..just wow.

We're looking back at a rotation that included Daniel Cabrera, Adam Loewen, Steve Trachsel and Brian Burres and trying to suggest that its somehow less ominous than what we have now?

Really Roy. I don't understand this logic.

I'd take Uehara (and his inexperience in MLB) 100% of the time over Cabrera (and his proven lack of control), Loewen (and his injury history), Burres (and his career ~6.00 ERA) or Trachsel (and his 8.30 ERA over his last 15 major league starts).

The other three spots are quite clearly going to be used to give youngsters a chance to stick at the minor league level. Olson, Liz and Penn will probably get the first shot. Bergesen & Patton will likely be right behind them. By season's end, one or more of Arrieta, Tillman, Hernandez, Matusz and Berkens may get the call.

I for one would much rather see Guthrie, Uehara and 3 young guys with live arms and bright futures than Burres, Trachsel and Cabrera. But hey, that's just me.

[bluedog]

Okay, he didn't draft Wieters. But, he did trade Hernandez for a useful player and some prospects and that clears the way for Wieters to start at some point this season. Good enough?

He did successfully sign Wieters and that was of greater value than drafting him (which as has been pointed out elsewhere, any idiot could have done). Standing firm at the 11th hour on an offer to a Boras client and getting the other side to flinch was a huge feather in AM's cap in my opinion.

[Oriolesfan8]

I agree that the individual moves have been fine, but worrying about solidifying the team for one year while not filling long-term holes has been the dominant strategy that's given us losing teams for 11 years. There's no chance that this team will reach .500 next year, so I'm a little baffled why we're seemingly spending so much of our front office time on stopgaps instead of looking into long-term solutions.

Now, there's no way for us to know that this longer-term thinking has not been simultaneously going on in the background, but all outward indications have been that these avenues haven't been greatly explored, as all we hear from Roch/Schmuck are weeks-long sagas about haggling with guys like Zaun/Hendrickson over contracts (other than the Teixeira mess). With all the holes this team has, I find it hard to believe that we haven't been able to fill any of them long-term. Most of them (e.g., SS and 1B) have been the same holes the organization has had for some time, and since the Bedard trade, there's been no action to fix any of them.

Again, I have no problem with the individual moves they've made, but I'd have a big problem if they haven't spent as much or more time as they did on those contacts on exploring long-term options.

[Enjoy Terror]

Apparently I can't give you rep now bluedog, but I think I've typed the same thing you just did no less than ten times in various threads over the past month.

There's no possible way that our rotation in 2009 could be worse than it was in 2008. I'd take Uehara, Liz, Olson and whoever over Trachsel, Burres, Loewen and Cabrera any day of the week. Combine this with a brand new catcher who may actually know how to call a game/stop a ball, and a much deeper AAA rotation to pick up the slack, we could be in for a more pleasant season.

[bluedog]

There is no move the Orioles have made this offseason that is dramatic. But in a slow and steady way, MacPhail has improved the team for 2009.

Izturis > Hernandez, Bynum, Cintron, Fahey, Castro as starting SS

Gomez > that same group as utility infielder

Wieters > Hernandez as starting C

Zaun > Quiroz as backup C

Freel > Payton as 4th OF

Uehara > DCab as starting P

Hendrickson > Burres as swing man

Now, I don't mean to suggest that those moves accomplish anything much for the long term, or that they vault the Orioles into contention for 2009. I don't even mean to suggest that it's likely this is now a .500 team. All I mean to suggest is that for 2009, this is a perceptibly better team than in 2008. Much better at SS, the bench, and behind the plate.

If I have reservations about this, it's mainly that MacPhail still hasn't done enough to solidify the rotation. And 1B (or DH) is still in question (though I'm willing to ride with Salazar). But even so, I think the 2009 team has fewer glaring holes than in 2008.

Another really good post Frobby. Has anyone done a Win Shares analysis of these changes to determine the potential improvement in terms of wins / losses they might make?

I'd be interested in seeing that.

[hoosiers]

I think AM did a fine job of grabbing the low hanging fruit - improving SS, backup catcher, shore up the bullpen, etc. We'll have to see how wise a move it was to sign Euhara. He might be a real steal or he could be as bad as DCab.

I do not know whether to give AM credit for not having a bad FA signing or not. We've seen some bad ones as Os fans, but I am not sure we've seen other GMs make regrettable decisions yet this offseason - so I figure there's not too much to be overly positive about here.

There's still some jockeying for remaining free agents and trying to catch guys out of options to be done. I expect this is part of the job AM does quite well - we'll see.

There's not been any talent acquired this offseason that could contribute to our LT plans. I personally think realistic options were limited in this regard and it's fine with me that AM appears prepared to leave several opportunities for the young pitchers this year. People may not want to rely on Olson or Liz individually, but there is strength in numbers and I expect a few not maked Tillman/Arrieta/Matusz will pull make themselves part of our LT plans.