A lot of little moves = a significantly better team?

[ugen64]

I answered before.

I surmised that if the Orioles were essentially in the Mets position last year, where a reliever would be needed and they are going all out to win that year, I'd give up something like Reimold and Bergesen. I prefaced it with Reimold's value being slightly less to me because of Scott's presence making him slightly blocked for the future and Bergesen being movable because of the presence of several other, more highly rated SP prospects.

That's similar to the offer I would have made for him. But put yourself in the other side now. Let's say some team offered us a C level starter and a C+ level prospect for Sherrill. I would not have taken that offer. Think about it - we were able to convince the Cubs to give us a C+ prospect (Scott Moore) for *Steve Trachsel*. Is Sherrill really that worthless that he's equal to 2007 Steve Trachsel + a C level starter?

[sangar]

A couple of months ago Mackus and I debated the Tex issue. Mackus defended the position that Tex, in regards to statements made concerning his expressed desires, was simply "talking the talk". Mackus was right. None of will ever know what his private wish was, he followed the money and this 'always wanting to be a Yankee' stuff is probably just more "talking". If the Angels or Orioles had offered the most I'll bet he would be saying the same sentence, just inserting a different name.

[Mackus]

That's similar to the offer I would have made for him. But put yourself in the other side now. Let's say some team offered us a C level starter and a C+ level prospect for Sherrill. I would not have taken that offer. Think about it - we were able to convince the Cubs to give us a C+ prospect (Scott Moore) for *Steve Trachsel*. Is Sherrill really that worthless that he's equal to 2007 Steve Trachsel + a C level starter?

I wouldn't have taken the type of offer you mention here.

Thats why it obviously isn't an exact science, and we'll never know for sure what the offers are. I just feel that Sherrill's value at the time was pretty high, and that MacPhail should have been able to get a solid offer out of somebody for him. Relief pitching, especially left-handed relief pitching that can close if needed, is pretty valuable in late July on the trade market. I strongly feel MacPhail should have worked really hard to find the teeam that needed him the most, and convinced them to give up so nice talent, along the lines of what I mentioned earlier.

I don't think he tried to do that. It seemed to me from everything he did and said that he was happy to sit back and answer the phones, rather than be pushing to make a deal. I don't always think a GM should be proactively selling his guys, but that was a scenario in which I think MacPhail should have been doing exactly that.

[Mackus]

A couple of months ago Mackus and I debated the Tex issue. Mackus defended the position that Tex, in regards to statements made concerning his expressed desires, was simply "talking the talk". Mackus was right. None of will ever know what his private wish was, he followed the money and this 'always wanting to be a Yankee' stuff is probably just more "talking". If the Angels or Orioles had offered the most I'll bet he would be saying the same sentence, just inserting a different name.

I don't know that I'm definitely right, we'll never know because the Yankees made the biggest offer.

But I certainly still feel the same way. He was going to sign with whomever made the biggest offer. If there were several pretty close offers, then I think he had a pecking order (which we were near the bottom of) but that if any one offer was substantially better, then he'd sign there.

[bigbird]

The way you can get top talent for the system from other clubs is by trading special guys.

He already did that.

Now, you want him to get top talent from other clubs by trading not-so-special guys.

Good luck with that.

Just because you wish he could do that, that doesn't make it true.

All it does is make it wishful thinking.

So what has he accomplished this offseason for the long haul? If there;s no special players to deal he needs to do other things not just wait and hope.

[SrMeowMeow]

I wouldn't have taken the type of offer you mention here.

Thats why it obviously isn't an exact science, and we'll never know for sure what the offers are. I just feel that Sherrill's value at the time was pretty high, and that MacPhail should have been able to get a solid offer out of somebody for him. Relief pitching, especially left-handed relief pitching that can close if needed, is pretty valuable in late July on the trade market. I strongly feel MacPhail should have worked really hard to find the teeam that needed him the most, and convinced them to give up so nice talent, along the lines of what I mentioned earlier.

I don't think he tried to do that. It seemed to me from everything he did and said that he was happy to sit back and answer the phones, rather than be pushing to make a deal. I don't always think a GM should be proactively selling his guys, but that was a scenario in which I think MacPhail should have been doing exactly that.

My personal opinion is that there's nothing wrong with trusting a GM in this case. There's no real reason to assume that what you're afraid of actually happened, besides the fact that Sherrill wasn't traded. This is a situation where I think it's best to wait for full information before making a judgement - there's no time pressure in making your assessment.

As for appearing to sell a player, I don't think any GM wants to be seen as 'shopping' someone because that pretty directly lowers their value.

[JTrea81]

I never thought Tex made financial sense for this club. He might have made sense for his talent and our availability at 1B (obviously), but we could draft solid 1B in any draft and have him ready in a year to hit 30 homeruns, and pay him a 1/100th of Tex's salary. It was about value and bang-for-buck math, considering at least the first $40M of Tex's salary would go towards seasons in which we aren't ready to compete because the pitching isn't there.

Solid ML ready 1B men aren't available in every draft.

Smoak was the best 1B man available in the 2008 draft and we passed for Matusz who may have been the top pitcher in that draft, but would only be the 4th or 5th best pitcher in the 2009 draft. Ackley will likely be the best 1B man in 2009 but I don't think he is as good as Smoak. Matzek who will likely be available when we pick has also been compared to Cole Hamels and is very similar to Matusz.

The Orioles could have drafted Smoak in 2008 and Matzek in 2009 and been a whole heck of a lot better off. The guy was from the same hometown as Wieters to boot. It was too perfect of a fit...

My guess is that the Orioles will pass on Ackley and draft another pitcher and continue to have a hole at 1B for another few years...

[PaulBako]

Solid ML ready 1B men aren't available in every draft.

Smoak was the best 1B man available in the 2008 draft and we passed for Matusz who may have been the top pitcher in that draft, but would only be the 4th or 5th best pitcher in the 2009 draft. Ackley will likely be the best 1B man in 2009 but I don't think he is as good as Smoak. Matzek who will likely be available when we pick has also been compared to Cole Hamels and is very similar to Matusz.

The Orioles could have drafted Smoak in 2008 and Matzek in 2009 and been a whole heck of a lot better off. The guy was from the same hometown as Wieters to boot. It was too perfect of a fit...

My guess is that the Orioles will pass on Ackley and draft another pitcher and continue to have a hole at 1B for another few years...

Even tough 1b is the easiest hole to fill.

No position holes are easy to fix, but 1B is the easiest one.

Matusz was a great pick, and I hope we can get Matzek. Some say he may even be picked below #5.

[Mackus]

Even if you can say Sherril is the only guy he screwed up on, that's a huge mistake that may be a sign of things to come.

It was a mistake, but it wasn't a huge mistake. Theres even the possibility that it is a correctable mistake if Sherrill has a nice first half and his value will be high again and he can be moved for ideally a nice nearly MLB-ready IF prospect (basically an infield version of Reimold).

[PaulBako]

It was a mistake, but it wasn't a huge mistake. Theres even the possibility that it is a correctable mistake if Sherrill has a nice first half and his value will be high again and he can be moved for ideally a nice nearly MLB-ready IF prospect (basically an infield version of Reimold).

Could it be Jason Donald?

But I don't think we could get him.

[Mackus]

Could it be Jason Donald?

But I don't think we could get him.

Definitely can't get him now, and even last offseason I think Donald was rising too quickly to get him for Sherrill.

[JTrea81]

Even tough 1b is the easiest hole to fill.

No position holes are easy to fix, but 1B is the easiest one.

We haven't been able to fix the position for 10 years now...

And it still doesn't seem to be a priority to find a LT option there.

[bluedog]

All I was saying was that for April, May and parts of June, those pitchers all pitched pretty well. Then Loewen got hurt again, Trachsel was God awful, Burres was exposed, and Cabrera reverted back to his old self..All Im saying is that for 9 weeks..those pitchers held their own and we were decent. I dont even know if Uehara can get anyone out at this level. Im not high on Olsen right now..and Liz is a reliever in a starting role..then you have Hendrickson and who knows who else before they go to the kids..All Im saying is Im not even sure this years batch could give us 9 decent weeks. Also, we had alot of offense and a great comeback team in April and May..In June and beyond..we fell to earth...

Not to be argumentative, but I'm looking back at the stats and I just don't see this.

Trax compiled an 6.08 ERA in April, 15.30(!!!) in May and 6.00 in June.

Burres, after a nice handful of starts in April compiled a 5.35 ERA in May and a 7.27 ERA in June.

Loewen was just awful throughout the season till his injury.

Cabrera is the only guy who pitcher "well" during that 9 week period and he quickly fell back to earth by compiling a 7.06 ERA in June. And remember - this is a guy that went 9 - 18 the prior year while leading the league in walks and wild pitches.

So what are we looking at for 2009?

Olson has been slightly inferior than Loewen in almost exactly the same number of innings thus far in his career. We can't tell yet if Olson is going to improve or not, but he's got at least as much value as Loewen had going into last season (and in retrospect a lot more considering Adam's career ending injury).

Uehara, even with the question marks about his ability to pitch in the Majors is one of the best pitchers ever to play in Japan. You have to like the chances he's got to be a far more valuable starter than Cabrera ever was. He'd have to make a Herculean effort to be much worse.

Mark Hendrickson is clearly far superior to Brian Burres by a wide margin over his career and there's nothing to suggest they couldn't outperform him again in 2009 if he pins down a job as a starter.

Chris Water and Brian Bass both pitcher far better last year than Steve Trachsel. Neither is likely to out perform Trax when he was in his prime, but either should be able to put up the 8 - 13 record and ~7.00 ERA Trax provided for the O's in 2007 & 2008.

And that assumes that no one else emerges with a stellar spring training to lay claim to a starting role such as Hayden Penn or Brian Bergesen or Tillman or someone else.

That's why this year's rotation is better. It has the potential for upside that last years rotation did not.

[Mackus]

We haven't been able to fix the position for 10 years now...

We haven't had a long term fix, but the position really hasn't been that much of a black hole over the past 10 years.

Here is the Orioles MLB ranks for OPS among 1st basemen (rank, O's 1B OPS, MLB 1B OPS):

2008 - 20 - .774 - .819

2007 - 11 - .813 - .820

2006 - 20 - .785 - .850

2005 - 15 - .803 - .823

2004 - 22 - .768 - .825

2003 - 28 - .722 - .828

2002 - 17 - .797 - .827

2001 - 11 - .853 - .841

2000 - 12 - .881 - .881

Other than 2003, they've been ok most of the time at 1B. I'm not gonna argue its been a strength, but it hasn't been a huge black hole. They have been in the top half more often than the bottom half the last 9 years.

[bluedog]

While we often differ..I would like to hear your view of the Dunn theory. (Assuming he has enough sense to drop a demand that he play LF).I think at 10 mill a year..he can cover alot of runs that our pitching will give up. He walks a ton and changes the lineup. 2or 3 years doesnt affect the rebuilding plan and covers us when/if we lose HUFF/Mora/ Roberts somewhat offensively. Plus..no pick compensation. I believe we should be going hard after Dunn...I would await your response,

What makes you believe that Dunn would take an offer that's lower than he's hoping to get to come play with a team that's almost certainly not going to be competitive at a position (DH) he doesn't want to play?

If he signs a low offer for 10 M a year, I'd think he'd first look to go to a contender. Then I'd think he'd look to play with a team that would guarantee him a LF job.

That's assuming he's willing to sign a low offer at all. There's every reason to believe he can get more money if he just waits for Manny to come off the market.

If we can get Dunn for 3 years / 30 million, then it sounds like a great deal. I just don't think that offer is viable regardless of how much we want it to be. I think the O's will have to overpay significantly to get Dunn and AM isn't willing to do that.