Is McKenna's spot in jeopardy?

[interloper]

On paper, it doesn't seem like any of the left-handed 1B/COF NRIs have a spot on the team if the roster is comprised of 13 pitchers and 13 position players. The 4-man bench would appear to be: McCann, McKenna, Vavra, and whoever isn't playing from the trio of Urias/Frazier/Mateo. And yet, O'Hearn, Cordero, Lester, Diaz, and Mazara all remain in camp and everyone save Mazara has hit well. 

The organization appears intent on having one of these guys make the roster for some reason. Perhaps it's all been a ruse and whoever doesn't opt-out or get released will simply go to AAA as injury depth. But I'm having a hard time believing Elias would have gone through so much trouble bringing in all these guys if the intent was not to have one of them on the roster. 

So, barring injury, one of Vavra or McKenna would appear to be in jeopardy. My current theory is that it's McKenna. Why?

• We've seen Hays play CF more often in recent ST games
• We've seen Vavra play 3B adequately enough, adding to his usefulness off the bench
• We've not really seen much of Vavra at 1B like we initially thought we would, perhaps a hint that they plan to carry a true backup 1B
• We have seen Vavra play LF a bit, so rather than carry 5 true outfielders you can carry 4 (Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers)
• McKenna has an option and is a less preferred RH hitter. 

So perhaps the Orioles decide to avoid an opt-out scenario with, let's say, Franchy Cordero, and add some LH thump off the bench by optioning McKenna early in the season. They would lose McKenna's two skills: late-game defense and some ability to hit LH pitching. But the second you have an OF injury, McKenna is right there to call up, at least if it's before Cowser is ready. 

It feels weird to not have a true 5th OF on the bench in this scenario, so I could see a situation where it's Vavra instead. But this is my current theory. Thoughts? 

[RZNJ]

Not buying it.  McKenna is safe.  Cameron was his competition.  Cordero and O’Hearn were motivation for Hays and Stowers and safety nets at Norfolk in case of injury.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Not buying it.  McKenna is safe.  Cameron was his competition.  Cordero and O’Hearn were motivation for Hays and Stowers and safety nets at Norfolk in case of injury.

You could very well be right in the end, we'll just have to see. 

I'm not seeing the connection between Hays and Cordero/O'Hearn like you are since Hays' skillsets are so different from theirs.

But it's certainly possible none of these guys make the team and whoever doesn't opt out goes to AAA. I tend to think that's what Diaz is for since he can't opt out. I think they're going to avoid one of these guys using his opt out for the early weeks of the season at least. 

[eddie83]

I think it’s possible. Not probable. They face Sale in Boston. Should face a lefty in Texas/ Heaney. Cortes perhaps vs NYY. Oakland has one lefty in Sears. White Sox have no lefties. 
 

At most they will face 4 LHP in first 16 games before an off day before 2 games in DC. 
 

In theory they could keep Vavra and then a LHB instead of McKenna. 
 

Would they play Hays in CF for 1/2 games and Cedric the other 2?

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

You could very well be right in the end, we'll just have to see. 

I'm not seeing the connection between Hays and Cordero/O'Hearn like you are since Hays' skillsets are so different from theirs.

But it's certainly possible none of these guys make the team and whoever doesn't opt out goes to AAA. I tend to think that's what Diaz is for since he can't opt out. I think they're going to avoid one of these guys using his opt out for the early weeks of the season at least. 

I’m guessing Mazara and Cordero are the only two with opt outs and no one cares if Mazara opts out.  The big question on Cordero is when is the opt out.  It could be March 31.  It could be June 1.  Cordero isn’t a particularly good defensive player.  McKenna fits the team in a much different way.   I don’t see them as competing for one spot.   I would be nervous if I were Kyle Stowers.

[interloper]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

I think it’s possible. Not probable. They face Sale in Boston. Should face a lefty in Texas/ Heaney. Cortes perhaps vs NYY. Oakland has one lefty in Sears. White Sox have no lefties. 
 

At most they will face 4 LHP in first 16 games before an off day before 2 games in DC. 
 

In theory they could keep Vavra and then a LHB instead of McKenna. 
 

Would they play Hays in CF for 1/2 games and Cedric the other 2?

Good point about the lefties.  In theory, Mullins should hit lefties well, he just  didn't last year. Stowers historically hits lefties well. Adley and Santander are switch hitters. You have Hays, Urias, McCann, and Mateo as your other right-handers. 

It does fell odd not having another righty off the bench though, I'll give you that. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by interloper

[interloper]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

 I would be nervous if I were Kyle Stowers.

I will say I am praying he continues to hit well this spring. I don't trust the Orioles when it comes to Stowers haha. 

[interloper]

McKenna is starting in CF in today's game FWIW. Cameron in RF. 

[Aristotelian]

I doubt it but he's kind of a marginal player so in that sense his spot is always in jeopardy. 

[jamalshw]

I think he's a bit vulnerable, but someone like Cordero would have to stay as hot as he is (which is unlikely) and McKenna would have to look lost. I think, unfortunately, Vavra is the most up-in-the-air of the guys penciled in, but I would expect O'Hearns, Diaz, and Cordero to more or less by AAA depth and they're still on the spring roster in case of injury to someone between now and opening day (or in case there is a late spring trade to move someone else). 

[eddie83]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

Good point about the lefties.  In theory, Mullins should hit lefties well, he just  didn't last year. Stowers historically hits lefties well. Adley and Santander are switch hitters. You have Hays, Urias, McCann, and Mateo as your other right-handers. 

It does fell odd not having another righty off the bench though, I'll give you that. 

The only thing to me would be this. If they go that route then they would have to be committed for some amount of time to Cordero/O’Hearn/Lester/Diaz etc.  
 

They could in theory then send Vavra down if they think McKenna is needed. 
 

I think McKenna makes the team but it would not shock me if he doesn’t or at some point is sent down this year. 

[eddie83]

Cordero and Diaz have no options. O’Hearn is listed with one plus his contract plays into the Orioles favor. Lester has 2 options. 
 

Now if they call these guys up and they struggle odds are nobody will want them anyway and Elias certainly has created depth for this role, if you want to call it that.  

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

I will say I am praying he continues to hit well this spring. I don't trust the Orioles when it comes to Stowers haha. 

I would hope he gets a solid look and I think he will. That said if he scuffles they do have options underneath him. 

[spleen1015]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

I will say I am praying he continues to hit well this spring. I don't trust the Orioles when it comes to Stowers haha. 

I don't either. There were many situations near the end of last year where Phillips or Aguilar got ABs when they should have been given to Stowers or Vavra.

[btdart20]

40 minutes ago, interloper said:

The organization appears intent on having one of these guys make the roster for some reason. Perhaps it's all been a ruse and whoever doesn't opt-out or get released will simply go to AAA as injury depth. But I'm having a hard time believing Elias would have gone through so much trouble bringing in all these guys if the intent was not to have one of them on the roster. 

My theory:  I do think the intent is to get some AAA injury depth.  The mad scramble claiming any "body" who checked various boxes was basically stacking odds of a) someone sticking and b) actually amounting to a non-negative factor.  The amount of time with the ML club in ST is so the coaches get more time seeing/evaluating their engagement and response to our approach to hitting.  And it allows these AAAA guys a chance to face higher level pitching more consistently than they would face in minor league camp.