Adley Rutschman 2023

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

An 870 OPS would put Adley at #12 in all of MLB.

Do we really expect Adley to be a top 10ish hitter in all of MLB?

I don't and I never have.  And those that have, I have consistently said their expectations are too high.

Why SHOULD Adley be a top 10 hitter in all of MLB?

I’m not expecting him to do that all time but can he have a few peak seasons like that?  Why not? Posey had a 957 OPS season.

[Malike]

I was interested in seeing his numbers in relation to the rest of MLB. He's playing too much, I think. It's his first full 162 game season and he's playing too much.

[justD]

9 hours ago, Brooks The Great said:

It would have been Cowser had Hyde and Elias not sabatoged Cowser by not playing him every day and letting him work through his initial adustment period. 

Right now, moving Mullins up to leadoff is a reasonable solution. No one in the entire organization has as much experience leading off as Mullins does. Simply switching Adley's and Ced's spots in the lineup would be a nice way to change things up without disrupting the rest of the lineup. Although disrupting the rest of the lineup may not be a bad thing considering how the whole lineup has looked the past few days.

They've been postponing this because his groin injury hasn't been completely healed (do they ever heal up within one season?). 

I know, that catch last night made it look as though he's 100%, and he looked really good after the bunt on the attempted steal that ended up moot because of the walk, but groin injuries are so finicky, I can understand them not wanting to risk any aggravation heading into the postseason. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not expecting him to do that all time but can he have a few peak seasons like that?  Why not? Posey had a 957 OPS season.

Oh, sure.  Adley could have a big monster season like Posey's 2012, or Mauer's 2009.  That could happen.

However, that's a lot different than looking at a guy who is in a bit of a slump with a 120 OPS+, and acting like something's wrong.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Yes, I don't expect him to be as good as Posey.  Posey's numbers also came in much friendlier offensive environments.

You may not expect it but saying it’s unrealistic to think he can is complete Bs. He was the first pick in the draft and most people believe he was a better prospect coming out of the draft than Posey was.

So, you may want to temper you own expectations and that’s fine but at the end of the day, expecting a guy who was 12th in MVP moving and had a 5.5 WAR playing 70% of his first season, to improve on that is completely realistic.

You not thinking that highly of him is more of an indictment on you than anything else. now, maybe you will end up being right and maybe he’s just not nearly as good as basically everyone in and around the game thinks he is but those expectations are exactly where they should be.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

Oh, sure.  Adley could have a big monster season like Posey's 2012, or Mauer's 2009.  That could happen.

However, that's a lot different than looking at a guy who is in a bit of a slump with a 120 OPS+, and acting like something's wrong.

It’s not an act. It’s a fact that his numbers are down. It’s inarguable.

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

An 870 OPS would put Adley at #12 in all of MLB.

Do we really expect Adley to be a top 10ish hitter in all of MLB?

I don't and I never have.  And those that have, I have consistently said their expectations are too high.

Why SHOULD Adley be a top 10 hitter in all of MLB?

Because he's not far from that right now.  Only thing really missing is the slugging.

SG said a .260-.280 hitter.  Right now, he's at .268.

SG said a .360-.380 OBP.  Right now, he's at .366.

It's very reasonable to assume moving forward that the separation between his batting average and his OBP will be around .100 points.  It was over .100 last year, it's close to it this year.  If we're going to do any kind of projections on him, I feel that one will be the safest bet.

So, we're 2/3 of the way there.

Where he's disappointing is the slugging percentage.  He has not hit for power and I don't think there's anyone here that thinks he SHOULDN'T hit for power.  He's a big, strong dude.  We've seen him hit some bombs and we've seen him hit some doubles.

I'm not sure why he's not hitting for power but I don't believe he's going to be a .417 slugger for the rest of his career.  I expect that number to be higher next year.  With that, the other numbers will bump up a bit and he can get there.  I don't see why .850-.870 is out of the question if he hits for more power...and I'm not even saying more homers.  He hit 35 doubles last year, there's no reason he can't hit more than that next year.

[turtlebowl]

I actually am seeing something different from him right now than what many seem to be seeing.  For the first time I am seeing a guy that looks like he is over swinging.  I always thought he was a guy that looked to put a good swing on the ball but when he got ahead he would hunt a certain pitch and then put a homerun swing on it.  You can actually see the difference in his hip speed within those different approaches.  Now it almost appears like he is swinging for the fences at first swing and then getting himself into tough counts which is making him more defensive which in the end result means less power. 

Who knows what is causing this. Maybe he is trying to do too much or maybe he see's Gunner lighting it up and he wants to keep up with him.  Remember, Rutschman has probably never been on a team for a season where he wasn't "the guy" so could this get him away from what he does best?. 

Who knows the reason for sure but I think he should settle in to be a .280-.300 hitter, 20 to 25HR with a .370+ OBP in his prime years (now).  

For the record Markakis who to me is a similar hitter would also get into trouble when he would fall into the trap of trying to hit homers.

Edited September 15, 2023 by turtlebowl

[Sports Guy]

25+ homers, 35+ doubles…he should be a 65+ extra base hit guy. No reason he can’t. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

25+ homers, 35+ doubles…he should be a 65+ extra base hit guy. No reason he can’t. 

I feel that's accurate and not too much of an ask.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Because he's not far from that right now.  Only thing really missing is the slugging.

SG said a .260-.280 hitter.  Right now, he's at .268.

SG said a .360-.380 OBP.  Right now, he's at .366.

It's very reasonable to assume moving forward that the separation between his batting average and his OBP will be around .100 points.  It was over .100 last year, it's close to it this year.  If we're going to do any kind of projections on him, I feel that one will be the safest bet.

So, we're 2/3 of the way there.

Where he's disappointing is the slugging percentage.  He has not hit for power and I don't think there's anyone here that thinks he SHOULDN'T hit for power.  He's a big, strong dude.  We've seen him hit some bombs and we've seen him hit some doubles.

I'm not sure why he's not hitting for power but I don't believe he's going to be a .417 slugger for the rest of his career.  I expect that number to be higher next year.  With that, the other numbers will bump up a bit and he can get there.  I don't see why .850-.870 is out of the question if he hits for more power...and I'm not even saying more homers.  He hit 35 doubles last year, there's no reason he can't hit more than that next year.

It's not out of the question.  He could put a year or two together like that.  That's a peak.

But that's a differnt thing than looking at a guy with a 120 OPS+ and saying he isn't performing up to expectations.

If we admittedly accept it's a peak, we have to acknowledge we don't actually expect him to peak every year, and Adley's performance this year is well within the bounds of reasonable expectations.

[Malike]

The most valuable catcher who qualifies in MLB has an OPS of .818 and 4.1 WAR has 40 XBH. Adley, by far has the most ABs, he's being overused in his first full big league season.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Malike said:

I was interested in seeing his numbers in relation to the rest of MLB. He's playing too much, I think. It's his first full 162 game season and he's playing too much.

I THINK this is the biggest issue. I have been saying this for the last 4 months. Hyde is pulling a Buck here and driving him into the ground.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I THINK this is the biggest issue. I have been saying this for the last 4 months. Hyde is pulling a Buck here and driving him into the ground.

I knew he was playing a lot, but he's really playing A LOT for his first full season.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Malike

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not an act. It’s a fact that his numbers are down. It’s inarguable.

Sure, his numbers are "down" but they're still within the reasonably expected parameters.

Again, if you say his peak is 870 OPS, and he has an 800 OPS (yes, he's a little below that currently) then you have to acknowledge that isn't underperformance, but merely the normal fluctuation of performance that all players go through.

FWIW, I don't like using OPS in these discussions, as the offensive levels have varied so much so recently.  I'd prefer OPS+.

And using that metric, the guy is hitting 20% better than league average.  Will he do better than that some years?  I believe so.  But I don't look at his 120 OPS+ and see underperformance, even if I acknowledge that it is possible for him to do better.