Adley Rutschman 2023

[dystopia]

41 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Do you expect him to perform or grow radically from his current level of performance?

I expect him to be better next year. Sophomore slumps are not unusual. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Sure, his numbers are "down" but they're still within the reasonably expected parameters.

Again, if you say his peak is 870 OPS, and he has an 800 OPS (yes, he's a little below that currently) then you have to acknowledge that isn't underperformance, but merely the normal fluctuation of performance that all players go through.

FWIW, I don't like using OPS in these discussions, as the offensive levels have varied so much so recently.  I'd prefer OPS+.

And using that metric, the guy is hitting 20% better than league average.  Will he do better than that some years?  I believe so.  But I don't look at his 120 OPS+ and see underperformance, even if I acknowledge that it is possible for him to do better.

I don't think anyone looked at his 131 OPS+ last year and was expecting him to be at 119+ this year.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[Pickles]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think anyone looked at his 131 OPS+ and was expecting him to be at 119+ this year.

Well, I don't know what to tell you but they should have acknowledged it being in the realm of possibilities.  I did.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Sure, his numbers are "down" but they're still within the reasonably expected parameters.

Again, if you say his peak is 870 OPS, and he has an 800 OPS (yes, he's a little below that currently) then you have to acknowledge that isn't underperformance, but merely the normal fluctuation of performance that all players go through.

FWIW, I don't like using OPS in these discussions, as the offensive levels have varied so much so recently.  I'd prefer OPS+.

And using that metric, the guy is hitting 20% better than league average.  Will he do better than that some years?  I believe so.  But I don't look at his 120 OPS+ and see underperformance, even if I acknowledge that it is possible for him to do better.

But I’m not calling him out for OBP. I’m talking his power. I’m happy with the OBP. He needs to do more power wise.  He had a 445 slugging last year and a 191 ISO. His slugging is down 28 points and his ISO is down 32 points.

His power this year is unacceptable for the first pick in the draft and where he was last year. He is a worse player this year than he was last year. His power and defense are factually worse. It’s not subjective and saying, well I think…there is a real, measurable drop off.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I don't know what to tell you but they should have acknowledged it being in the realm of possibilities.  I did.

It was always possible…but it would and should have been looked at as a disappointment based on what he did as a rookie.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

25+ homers, 35+ doubles…he should be a 65+ extra base hit guy. No reason he can’t. 

It might be harder to reach those milestones if he is benched all the time! I fundamentally don't see DH'ing as a big deal when it comes to wear and tear. The O's have a training staff that is keeping close tabs on all these guys and they have a good track record of minimizing injuries and keeping guys fresh. 

 

15 minutes ago, Malike said:

I was interested in seeing his numbers in relation to the rest of MLB. He's playing too much, I think. It's his first full 162 game season and he's playing too much.

He's actually caught only one inning more than the number one guy on that list. His catcher innings are #10 in MLB, about what you'd expect from a starting catcher who hasn't had any injuries. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/fullInningsPlayed

It is possible that DHing is wearing him down but I personally don't buy it. If it is, it's probably a very marginal effect.

The O's have a training staff that is keeping close tabs on these guys, they are actively involved in Hyde's sit/start calls, and they have a great track record at keeping our players healthy. Not every slump (if there is one) is due to managerial malpractice.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I expect him to be better next year. Sophomore slumps are not unusual. 

Hopefully Hyde learns to not be so dumb with his usage.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I don't know what to tell you but they should have acknowledged it being in the realm of possibilities.  I did.

I was hoping for that production across a whole season.  I think anyone can admit that there's a possibility he could have backslid this year but no one was banking on it.  I think we could all agree that we're hoping for better production from Gunnar next year, for example, but it's a possibility he might not do what he's done this year, too.

[Malike]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It might be harder to reach those milestones if he is benched all the time! I fundamentally don't see DH'ing as a big deal when it comes to wear and tear. The O's have a training staff that is keeping close tabs on all these guys and they have a good track record of minimizing injuries and keeping guys fresh. 

 

He's actually caught only one inning more than the number one guy on that list. His catcher innings are #10 in MLB, about what you'd expect from a starting catcher who hasn't had any injuries. 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/fielding/_/position/c/sort/fullInningsPlayed

It is possible that DHing is wearing him down but I personally don't buy it. If it is, it's probably a very marginal effect.

The O's have a training staff that is keeping close tabs on these guys, they are actively involved in Hyde's sit/start calls, and they have a great track record at keeping our players healthy. Not every slump (if there is one) is due to managerial malpractice.

There is a reason that teams other than the O's aren't giving their catchers 600 ABs. DH or Catching, wears you down. I don't recall his legs buckling on swings in the first half of the season.

Edited September 15, 2023 by Malike

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It was always possible…but it would and should have been looked at as a disappointment based on what he did as a rookie.

 

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But I’m not calling him out for OBP. I’m talking his power. I’m happy with the OBP. He needs to do more power wise.  He had a 445 slugging last year and a 191 ISO. His slugging is down 28 points and his ISO is down 32 points.

His power this year is unacceptable for the first pick in the draft and where he was last year. He is a worse player this year than he was last year. His power and defense are factually worse. It’s not subjective and saying, well I think…there is a real, measurable drop off.  

I should go back and try to find some of the threads before he came up; there was one in particular where basically everybody predicted him to have an 900 OPS and I was alone saying those are crazy high, and unrealistic, expectations.

So I've always felt people's expectations were too high, particularly offensively, and that people don't appreciate how difficult it is on the body to catch at the ML level nightly and how that affects you as a hitter.

Now, that said, it's fair to say he's not performed as well this as last year.  But last year he was probably a top 5 player in the league, and this year he's "merely" top 20.  To me these are the normal fluctuations of a career.

Now, if he's top 50 next year, then yeah we'll have something becoming a trend and I'll be more concerned.

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I was hoping for that production across a whole season.  I think anyone can admit that there's a possibility he could have backslid this year but no one was banking on it.  I think we could all agree that we're hoping for better production from Gunnar next year, for example, but it's a possibility he might not do what he's done this year, too.

Which we've largely gotten.  Would I like his OPS to be 130 instead of 120?  Of course.  Is it some gaping difference?  No.

Where he's really lost value, WAR-wise, has been his defense.  I don't trust WARs quantifications of defense, particularly of catchers, but I do think it is fair to say he has declined defensively this year.  But again, that simply could be the predictable result of 200 more ABs.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

 

I should go back and try to find some of the threads before he came up; there was one in particular where basically everybody predicted him to have an 900 OPS and I was alone saying those are crazy high, and unrealistic, expectations.

So I've always felt people's expectations were too high, particularly offensively, and that people don't appreciate how difficult it is on the body to catch at the ML level nightly and how that affects you as a hitter.

Now, that said, it's fair to say he's not performed as well this as last year.  But last year he was probably a top 5 player in the league, and this year he's "merely" top 20.  To me these are the normal fluctuations of a career.

Now, if he's top 50 next year, then yeah we'll have something becoming a trend and I'll be more concerned.

He’s not  a top 20 player this year by any measure.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Which we've largely gotten.  Would I like his OPS to be 130 instead of 120?  Of course.  Is it some gaping difference?  No.

Where he's really lost value, WAR-wise, has been his defense.  I don't trust WARs quantifications of defense, particularly of catchers, but I do think it is fair to say he has declined defensively this year.  But again, that simply could be the predictable result of 200 more ABs.

I don't think he's been as good on defense this year.

The power is the big dropoff, for me.  Bigger than the defense.

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But I’m not calling him out for OBP. I’m talking his power. I’m happy with the OBP. He needs to do more power wise.  He had a 445 slugging last year and a 191 ISO. His slugging is down 28 points and his ISO is down 32 points.

His power this year is unacceptable for the first pick in the draft and where he was last year. He is a worse player this year than he was last year. His power and defense are factually worse. It’s not subjective and saying, well I think…there is a real, measurable drop off.  

I think you are overstating things here. 28 points of slugging translates into 17 total bases over the course of 600 AB's. Adley's XBA, hard hit, and exit velo are all up this year. It is possible wear and tear is having some effect but could just as much be defensive adjustments and random luck. Not everything has an explanation, much less a simple or single one. 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

There is a reason that teams other than the O's aren't giving their catchers 600 ABs. DH or Catching, wears you down. I don't recall his legs buckling on swings in the first half of the season.

The reason is that most catchers can't hit.