Anthony Santander 2023

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What the Os do at first/DH/COF next year is interesting.

Entering the 2024 season, you have Hays, Santander, OHearn, Mountcastle, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad all here, ready to be here or soon to be here.

As of now, Mayo has flashed some at AAA but overall, you don’t expect him to start the year in the majors. He’s probably more of a mid season call up, similar to Holliday.

OHearn and Mountcastle form a perfect platoon and they are cheap but can they continue to be reliable?

Hays has, predictably, fallen off from where he was. He’s a good player but is he a reliable everyday guy?

IMO, your starting OD OF in 2024 is Cowser, Mullins and Kjerstad. I don’t think they trade Mullins yet and I don’t see them extending him. They will just go year to year with him.

But since they are lefties, Hays gives them a good 4th option who will likely play a good amount. 

Where does that leave Santander? Well, you could elect to keep him over Hays and trade Hays. Santander is cheaper and I think it’s a toss up (as of today) who fetches more in trade. Santander provides you more offense and since he would primarily be your DH, that may be the preference.

Of course, they could elect to move Cowser or Kjerstad for a starter but if I had to guess, they will look to trade out of the depth that isn’t in the majors or ready to be in the majors for a starter, if that is the route they go.

They also could elect to make Santander the first baseman and get rid of both OHearn and Mounty but I tend to think the cost will make that an attractive option unless they struggle down the stretch or they deem they don’t like them defensively.  There is also the issue of roster space. How many of these guys will they be able to carry next year?

It's tough to do this given our record, but is Hays a sell high candidate?  He's RH and we have the Wall.  Also, Hays is really good defender.  As with Santander, I how much is he worth?  He might be worth more to us, even if just for a year, than the return he would bring back.  

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

I hope Santander is an Oriole for a long time. He’s a legitimate hitter and very underrated throughout baseball. I mean, he’s the every day 3/4 hitter on the best team in the AL. 

Well that is possible.   But Santander will cost 12-14m in 2024 and more than that on a long term agreement.  Kjerstad and Cowser will both cost the minimum salary for the next three years.    

This is the Orioles we are talking about.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think its very unlikely that All Star Hays becomes a 4th outfielder in 2024.

Santander is cheaper than who? Hays?  Santander is more expensive than Hays is 2024.

Yea I meant to type Hays there.

Hays’ role depends on many factors. Him being an AS this year isn’t one of them.

[Frobby]

On 7/18/2023 at 2:12 PM, Billy F-Face3 said:

My AI simulator estimates that Santander will get around $11 Million next season from arbitration. (Statistical input at this point of the season was if Santander had a .850 OPS and a 2 WAR).

I would say $12 Million seems more like a safe reasonable number.

You have an AI simulator?  Do tell!

[Aristotelian]

I say keep Santander and hit him with the QO when he is ready for free agency. He is the perfect guy for QO. The draft pick is worth more than we could get for him in trade and we would get one more year of a solid middle of the order power bat.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I meant to type Hays there.

Hays’ role depends on many factors. Him being an AS this year isn’t one of them.

Do you know who Brandon Hyde is? Do you see how he respects veterans much less All Stars?   That's a factor.  A big factor.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Do you know who Brandon Hyde is? Do you see how he respects veterans much less All Stars?   That's a factor.  A big factor.

It won’t matter if Hays isn’t even here.

All of it matters. Who do you keep? Who do you bring up? How does Hays end the year? He hasn’t been an AS for the last 6 weeks or so.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I say keep Santander and hit him with the QO when he is ready for free agency. He is the perfect guy for QO. The draft pick is worth more than we could get for him in trade and we would get one more year of a solid middle of the order power bat.

And you will play the difference between Santander and Kjerstad/Cowser's salary?

[sportsfan8703]

25 minutes ago, wildcard said:

And you will play the difference between Santander and Kjerstad/Cowser's salary?

I don't see Elias keeping Santander when factoring in his salary for next year.  I don't see the Angelos family volunteering $10+ million in profits for a safety net Santander.  Elias has not only built a really good team, but he's also built a very cheap team.  We have the best record in MLB and will get cheaper next year.  I'd like to see us offer Adley and Gunnar an extension.  Until we do that, we're cheaper than the Rays.  

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

And you will play the difference between Santander and Kjerstad/Cowser's salary?

Do you mean "pay"? Yes, we have a very low payroll. He will be due, what, $4M raise? We can certainly afford that and Santander's consistent production would be well worth $12M. I am not sold on Cowser yet, and injuries happen. I think it would be worth it to have Santander in an Adam Frazier role in that he might end up being redundant but in the meantime he gives you insurance against injuries and prospects struggling. Cowser and Kjerstad do not need 600 AB's right away. Replace McKenna, Mateo, and Frazier from current roster with Mullins, Kjerstad, and Ortiz, then divide up the AB's as best you can.

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Why does he mean more to us than any other team?  In fact, with our positional talent, I think it’s the complete opposite.

He means more to the Orioles because he is a known entity on a contender.  The cost of assuming that you can replace him next year adequately with a prospect could be not making the playoffs or a playoff loss.  Teams likely to be interested in him will likely be fringe contenders. 

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, baltfan said:

He means more to the Orioles because he is a known entity on a contender.  The cost of assuming that you can replace him next year adequately with a prospect could be not making the playoffs or a playoff loss.  Teams likely to be interested in him will likely be fringe contenders. 

Why? Why wouldn’t a contender want him? 

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

With the limited amount of spots you can use for Sept call ups, Kjerstad may not get the call so he can keep getting at bats.

We know, barring any setback, that Means is getting a spot. 

That would give the team the max allowed 14 pitchers and they can call up one more player. Maybe Kjerstad is that guy. My guess is that they go the third catcher route or maybe they bring up Ortiz.

Of course, you can ask do they need 14 pitchers? Could they go 13 pitchers and 15 hitters? If they do that, Kjerstad’s chances improve.

 

Yeah, the September roster decisions will be very interesting. I think Kjerstad won’t be able to get ABs over the group of corner OF/1B if they all remain healthy and performing, so they probably leave him in AAA even if they think he deserves a call up and they plan to do an offseason trade to get him in the OD lineup. 

Ortiz, however, could be in line to be tried as a potential playoff starter, if they think he potentially offers more than Urias/Frazier right now. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him get a shot and run away with that job. But with Mullins and Hicks coming back, they may have to send down McKenna and decide between Cowser and Ortiz for the extra hitter spot.   

They’ll want to add at least one pitcher spot, with Means but also Wells, Hall and likely Baker, with only Krehbiel and potentially Perez as the weak links right now. 

Could go any number of ways if the roster gets and stays healthy (knock on wood). 

[sportsfan8703]

Great job of Santa getting the runner over last night in extras. Having the runner at 3rd really affected the pitcher. 

Santa has matured as a hitter. He’s now a “professional hitter”. He’s shown some surprisingly good defense in clutch situations. He’s a switch hitter. 

I’m starting to think that he’s more valuable for us next season than what he would bring back in a trade. I’m happy to let him play out his contract and take the comp pick. 

[Sydnor]

From an article on The Athletic about the most underrated players on the “contending” teams:

The Orioles have the best record in the AL and are stacked with some of the best young players in baseball, from the sport’s best overall catcher (Adley Rutschman) to the front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year (Gunnar Henderson) to a recent member of the 30 homer–30 stolen-base club (center fielder Cedric Mullins) to the power bat of Ryan Mountcastle to future ace Grayson Rodriguez. However, one player who seems to fall under the radar is right fielder Anthony Santander, who has been the Orioles’ 3-hole hitter all season long and an important force in their clubhouse. Santander has slashed .250/.324/.473 (115 OPS+) with 29 doubles, 23 home runs and 67 RBIs. He’s been a 2.2-WAR player.

Mike Elias, general manager: “He is the glue on this team. He bats third every night.”

https://theathletic.com/4801620/2023/08/24/mlb-playoff-contenders-2023-players/?source=user_shared_article

Edited August 25, 2023 by Sydnor