Chayce McDermott 2023

[Three Run Homer]

On 7/27/2023 at 5:46 PM, nvpacchi said:

I would say this article from Alex Chamberlain is the best place to start on VAA (vertical approach angle). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-visualized-primer-on-vertical-approach-angle-vaa/

In essence, fastballs that have a higher (or closer to 0 since we're dealing with negative numbers) VAA, or approach the plate at a flatter angle are more effective than steeper fastballs.  In contrast, you'd want your sinkers to approach the plate at a steeper angle.

Pitchers can impact their VAAs.  First, a fastball higher in the zone will tend to come in flatter than one thrown below the knees. But the arm slot has to do a lot with how a pitcher's average fastballs crosses the plate.  Lower the arm slot, the flatter (think Paul Sewald) and conversely the higher the fastball the steeper (Felix Bautista).

This chart is all fastballs thrown this year, and there is a noticeable negative relationship between release point and VAA (-0.34 correlation for the numerically curious).

 

And given that there isn't a perfect correlation, that means there's room to exploit the relationship and be on the good side of the equation.  Its purely my hunch, but given that McDermott already has a release point (around 5.75 ft) that favors a flatter fastball, and he also posts above average IVBs on his fastball, it should lend to a fastball with a flatter VAA (independent of location).

Spencer Strider is the poster child of this, and it makes sense seeing how dominant he is with his fastball.

The beauty of this all comes together when seeing what a pitch with above average ride (IVB) and flatness can do.  The chart below measures swinging strike rate.  IVB is on the x-axis and VAA is on the y-axis.  You can see even if your fastball has limited ride, but has insane VAA (like > -4) you can still generate significant swing and miss.  A lot of that has to do with flatter fastballs being higher in the zone and more prone to swinging strikes, but you can still have an effective fastball if its flat with just average ride (kind of like Freddy Peralta).  But when you pair a flat VAA with good ride, it's game over for the hitter.

McDermott's 16-18 IVB, paired with (let's say) a -4.75 to -4.25 VAA (I'll try to pull the real numbers soon) has him close to or in the coveted red spot on the chart below.

Let me know if something isn't clear and I can try to explain further.  Its not the most intuitive thing to think about, but just another reason why velo isn't the primary factor when grading a pitcher's 4-seam.

 

 

 

 

Great stuff, thanks for posting.  You mentioned that Felix Bautista's fastball is steep--does that mean that he could get even more swing and miss if it was flatter?  He gets plenty of swing and miss as it is!  

[nvpacchi]

8 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Great stuff, thanks for posting.  You mentioned that Felix Bautista's fastball is steep--does that mean that he could get even more swing and miss if it was flatter?  He gets plenty of swing and miss as it is!  

thanks! It would be challenging for Bautista to flatten out his fastball given his release point.  I'll dig up the flattest fastballs and you'll see its guys with low arm slots ala Sewald, Kimbrell, and Luis Castillo.  Bautista is so tall AND so over the top there's no real wiggle room for him to flatten out his 4s without throwing it over the ump, his release point simply wouldn'tallow it.

I had a quick exchange with Eno Sarris once on VAA and he mentioned that Cal Quantrill told him he wishes he was shorter so he could improve his VAA!  Hot take, but I wouldn't be surprised to see low arm slots or shorter guys be valued more than in years past bc of better VAAs (the Striders and Taj Bradleys of the world) 

[nvpacchi]

12 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

thanks! It would be challenging for Bautista to flatten out his fastball given his release point.  I'll dig up the flattest fastballs and you'll see its guys with low arm slots ala Sewald, Kimbrell, and Luis Castillo.  Bautista is so tall AND so over the top there's no real wiggle room for him to flatten out his 4s without throwing it over the ump, his release point simply wouldn'tallow it.

I had a quick exchange with Eno Sarris once on VAA and he mentioned that Cal Quantrill told him he wishes he was shorter so he could improve his VAA!  Hot take, but I wouldn't be surprised to see low arm slots or shorter guys be valued more than in years past bc of better VAAs (the Striders and Taj Bradleys of the world) 

Following up on my original post, I looked at fastballs this year > 3 ft to strip out any bias for location that may impact averages.  Here's top 10 VAA, some other interesting names, and Orioles pitchers.  You'll see the top 10 is exclusively guys with super low arm slots.

Then you see what happens with Strider when you combine strong VAA and strong IVB (notice none of the guys above Strider can sniff his VAA), the  best starter's 4S in the game.

Conversely there's no Oriole pitcher that stands out in the VAA leaderboard, but that's not too surprising given the release point of many of Baltimore's pitchers.  Its encouraging Grayson gets flatter than average, as that helps him offset his pedestrian IVB.

He's been shaky this year, but It'd be interesting to see if the O's could work anything with the Mets for Drew Smith.  He's got the velo and fastball shape that should tie hitters up and give Baltimore another release point to add to its bullpen arsenal.  Probably very cheap too.

 

[Tony-OH]

On 7/30/2023 at 11:31 AM, Flash- bd said:

Yeah that was really some kind of fleecing. Couldn't believe it at the time and still kinda can't tbh. 

Yeah. It's pretty hard to imagine that we got this level of arm for Lucas Easton...Elias is showing himself to be very effective in trades (as in pretty much everything else). 

I think the jury is still out on Elias' ability to trade. Saying that, his trades of Lopez and Mancini were his best ones so far though the Mancini one is still only in promise. 

I do like the Fuji trade as well. The Dylan Bundy trade has worked out due to Bradish.

The Irvin trade and all of his salary dump/reliever trades all were poor. Though I guess you can say the Villar trade brought Kuji. 

So I think his trading is a mixed bag to an extent and the only trade that he's made from his minor league prospects for a veteran has not worked out very well (Irvin/Hernaiz). Though Hernaiz's lack of power, speed and arm is going to limit him despite hitting in some very good hitting environments so I wasn't upset about moving him. 

The real question is whether he can use his stocked up farm system to improve his playoff caliber roster. This is the main test of his trading ability.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I think the jury is still out on Elias' ability to trade. Saying that, his trades of Lopez and Mancini were his best ones so far though the Mancini one is still only in promise. 

I do like the Fuji trade as well. The Dylan Bundy trade has worked out due to Bradish.

The Irvin trade and all of his salary dump/reliever trades all were poor. Though I guess you can say the Villar trade brought Kuji. 

So I think his trading is a mixed bag to an extent and the only trade that he's made from his minor league prospects for a veteran has not worked out very well (Irvin/Hernaiz). Though Hernaiz's lack of power, speed and arm is going to limit him despite hitting in some very good hitting environments so I wasn't upset about moving him. 

The real question is whether he can use his stocked up farm system to improve his playoff caliber roster. This is the main test of his trading ability.

The Bundy trade “worked out due to Bradish?”   Yeah, I’d say so. Bundy in his two years for the Angels threw 156 innings at a 4.89 ERA at a cost of about $13.3 mm.  Meanwhile Bradish has thrown 221 innings at a 4.14 ERA and is under control for 5 years after this one.  

Meanwhile, we still may get some value out of Brnovich and Peek, who had made it to Norfolk and Bowie, respectively, early last year before needing TJ surgery.   Bradish was the most promising of the three by far, but the other two were at least interesting.  Brnovich is pitching rehab games now and hopefully Peek shouldn’t be far behind.  

Bottom line, I consider that deal to be a great one, even if Brnovich and Peek never turn into anything.  Bradish is going to be a valuable member of our rotation for a long time, barring injuries.  
 

 

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Bundy trade “worked out due to Bradish?”   Yeah, I’d say so. Bundy in his two years for the Angels threw 156 innings at a 4.89 ERA at a cost of about $13.3 mm.  Meanwhile Bradish has thrown 221 innings at a 4.14 ERA and is under control for 5 years after this one.  

Meanwhile, we still may get some value out of Brnovich and Peek, who had made it to Norfolk and Bowie, respectively, early last year before needing TJ surgery.   Bradish was the most promising of the three by far, but the other two were at least interesting.  Brnovich is pitching rehab games now and hopefully Peek shouldn’t be far behind.  

Bottom line, I consider that deal to be a great one, even if Brnovich and Peek never turn into anything.  Bradish is going to be a valuable member of our rotation for a long time, barring injuries.  
 

 

I believe you may have read into that comment a little too far there Sir Frobby. I was just saying the Bundy trade was a good trade because of what Bradish has done already, that's all. I wasn't dissing it by saying "worked out." We agree, the trade was a good one so whatever words you need to use to say that feel free to use them.

[wildcard]

In general when fans expect Elias to do something big he disappoints them.   Like last off season.  But  what Elias does is add someone that is underwhelming at first impression but turns out to be a decent addition as they perform.  JMO

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[Rbiggs2525]

25 minutes ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

 

I still see this guy as our bullpen help this year.

[bluedog]

1 hour ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

 

Excitement building...

What's the chance McDermott is in consideration for the rotation next season if he keeps this up?

Also, how close is McD to cracking the Top 100?

Edited August 3, 2023 by bluedog

[Frobby]

On 7/31/2023 at 3:34 PM, Tony-OH said:

I believe you may have read into that comment a little too far there Sir Frobby. I was just saying the Bundy trade was a good trade because of what Bradish has done already, that's all. I wasn't dissing it by saying "worked out." We agree, the trade was a good one so whatever words you need to use to say that feel free to use them.

LOL, sorry if I overreacted.  I basically feel the Bundy trade was as good or better than the Lopez or Mancini trades, due to Bradish.  He’s a productive major league starter with a great future.  I hope guys like McDermott and Povich but they aren’t proven major leaguers yet so I’m not ready to put those trades ahead of the Bradish one. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

LOL, sorry if I overreacted.  I basically feel the Bundy trade was as good or better than the Lopez or Mancini trades, due to Bradish.  He’s a productive major league starter with a great future.  I hope guys like McDermott and Povich but they aren’t proven major leaguers yet so I’m not ready to put those trades ahead of the Bradish one. 

The difference is with Bundy the O's were trading two full seasons and not a couple of months.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The difference is with Bundy the O's were trading two full seasons and not a couple of months.

True, but Bundy was coming off two years where he’d gone 15-30 with an ERA over 5.00 and given up 70 (that is not a typo) homers. 

[emmett16]

I watched him tonight.  Charlotte kinda stinks, not a lot of bats in the lineup.  He’s kinda wild in the zone but people just don’t square him up at all.  A lot of soft contact.  53 of 87 for 60% strikes giving up 1 hit 2BB and 7 ks over 6 innings. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by emmett16

[Billy F-Face3]

The stat line kinda gets me excited.