Gunnar Henderson 2023

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

He is hitting .200/.343/.200/.543 with 0 extra base hits on the season vs lefties.   Your best player should not be a guy that needs to platoon.  Now that doesn’t mean he won’t be by end of year but he hasn’t hit lefties in the minors or so far in the majors until he does that you shouldn’t be considered teams best player.    He actually would be nice platoon with Mateo who is hitting over .300  and Ops in the mid .700s vs lefties.

I don't really believe that massive platoon splits (or even reverse splits) are a real thing. They are almost always small samples that get turned into this narrative that someone can't hit X pitchers, they get platooned, rarely face those pitchers and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Unless Henderson is completely futile against lefties for years on end I'm going to assume he'll have a normal ~75-100 point OPS split vs. lefties compared to righties.  The worst thing the Orioles could do with their 22-year-old coming star is to get it into his head that he can't hit lefties and is going to sit twice a week.

Edited July 7, 2023 by DrungoHazewood

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't really believe that massive platoon splits (or even reverse splits) are a real thing. They are almost always small samples that get turned into this narrative that someone can't hit X pitchers, they get platooned, rarely face those pitchers and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Unless Henderson is completely futile against lefties for years on end I'm going to assume he'll have a normal ~75-100 point OPS split vs. lefties compared to righties.  The worst thing the Orioles could do with their 22-year-old coming star is to get it into his head that he can't hit lefties and is going to sit twice a week.

Not to mention, the OBP vs lefties is very good.

He just isn’t hitting the ball well at this point.

[baltfan]

Gunnar looks best at SS to me.  For those that have seen, is Holliday clearly better in the field?  Why wouldn’t Holliday be a 3B instead of Gunnar?

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Gunnar looks best at SS to me.  For those that have seen, is Holliday clearly better in the field?  Why wouldn’t Holliday be a 3B instead of Gunnar?

Cause we drafted him as an SS. Or something. 

[baltfan]

31 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Cause we drafted him as an SS. Or something. 

LOL.  I heard him interviewed and Holliday said he likes playing positions different than SS but still considers himself one. Maybe that is just him saying what he is supposed to say, but Gunnar looks awfully good at SS to me. 

[DrungoHazewood]

44 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Gunnar looks best at SS to me.  For those that have seen, is Holliday clearly better in the field?  Why wouldn’t Holliday be a 3B instead of Gunnar?

The Orioles have like five guys who could be solid MLB shortstops. They're still sorting out what that's going to look like in the end.

I've often said, really just repeating others, that moving rightward along the defensive spectrum doesn't work. If you're really a 3B moving you to SS isn't going to do anything for you. If you're really LF you're going to be a negative in CF. But the O's have like five real shortstops. Just need to take some time to figure out what works best.

[deward]

30 minutes ago, baltfan said:

LOL.  I heard him interviewed and Holliday said he likes playing positions different than SS but still considers himself one. Maybe that is just him saying what he is supposed to say, but Gunnar looks awfully good at SS to me. 

The argument would be that guys Gunnar's size tend to lose something off their range pretty quickly, which would make 3B a better long-term fit. That may not be a problem for at least 2-3 years though. I could see them moving guys around on different days, just to keep them happy, even if there's no tactical advantage.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

Gunnar looks best at SS to me.  For those that have seen, is Holliday clearly better in the field?  Why wouldn’t Holliday be a 3B instead of Gunnar?

If Holliday has to play 2B or 3B it’s not the worse thing in the world. He doesn’t have a great arm but has good mobility which will probably profile him at 2B.

Both players have Boras as an agent I believe, so it’s not like you run the risk of anything on that front.

You might be able to sell Holliday on the move given that their is less competition for All-star games, silver sluggers, etc at 2B than SS.

I agree with others in that Gunnar looks good at SS, even better than 3B. So we don’t need to really mess with a good thing.

Henderson at SS, Holliday at 2B, and I guess Westburg will man 3B. That works for me. If Urias can’t be traded maybe he goes into the platoon role since he can play all 4 INF spots? 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, deward said:

The argument would be that guys Gunnar's size tend to lose something off their range pretty quickly, which would make 3B a better long-term fit. That may not be a problem for at least 2-3 years though. I could see them moving guys around on different days, just to keep them happy, even if there's no tactical advantage.

If Gunnar outgrows the position can’t you move Holliday there then?

[deward]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If Gunnar outgrows the position can’t you move Holliday there then?

Of course. I don't expect that to have become an issue yet when Holliday first arrives though.

[Bemorewins]

If they decide on that kind of alignment, I’m sure that they will still give Holliday some opportunities/reps at SS when Gunnar is not playing there.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't really believe that massive platoon splits (or even reverse splits) are a real thing. They are almost always small samples that get turned into this narrative that someone can't hit X pitchers, they get platooned, rarely face those pitchers and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Unless Henderson is completely futile against lefties for years on end I'm going to assume he'll have a normal ~75-100 point OPS split vs. lefties compared to righties.  The worst thing the Orioles could do with their 22-year-old coming star is to get it into his head that he can't hit lefties and is going to sit twice a week.

I agree with the main idea because splits are heavily influenced by SSS from year to year and are not very predictive.  Better hitters determine the quality of the platoon more than handedness.  

Meaning, it also depends on the platoon partner/team construct.  That's what teams like Tampa, SFG, and the O's are leaning into.  Having a stud LHH for the strong side platoon is a good first step.  Finding a RHH for the weak side is a bit easier/cheaper.  

For this year, I'm fine with a platoon for Gunnar his OPS splits are a risk factor and it's a way to eek out a couple of more wins (and we already had guys on the roster that match up well like Urias and Mateo heading into 2023).

[waroriole]

6 hours ago, bpilktree said:

He is hitting .200/.343/.200/.543 with 0 extra base hits on the season vs lefties.   Your best player should not be a guy that needs to platoon.  Now that doesn’t mean he won’t be by end of year but he hasn’t hit lefties in the minors or so far in the majors until he does that you shouldn’t be considered teams best player.    He actually would be nice platoon with Mateo who is hitting over .300  and Ops in the mid .700s vs lefties.

What are Mateo’s numbers against LHP since May?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I agree with the main idea because splits are heavily influenced by SSS from year to year and are not very predictive.  Better hitters determine the quality of the platoon more than handedness.  

Meaning, it also depends on the platoon partner/team construct.  That's what teams like Tampa, SFG, and the O's are leaning into.  Having a stud LHH for the strong side platoon is a good first step.  Finding a RHH for the weak side is a bit easier/cheaper.  

For this year, I'm fine with a platoon for Gunnar his OPS splits are a risk factor and it's a way to eek out a couple of more wins (and we already had guys on the roster that match up well like Urias and Mateo heading into 2023).

I'd just let him play. I don't think you're ekeing out any more wins by sitting Henderson against lefties.

Here's your Drungo lesson of the day, you can put as much or little weight in it as you want: Vic Wertz was a young star for the Tigers in the late 40s and early 50s. Hit pretty well as a rookie in '47, had a really big year in '49 (.304 with 20 homers, 133 RBI, 80 walks), played even better in '50, still had a really good year in '51 (.285-27-94 with 78 walks).  All star three times, got some down-ballot MVP support in '49-50.

But he didn't hit lefties very well. So his manager, Red Rolfe, decided he was smarter than the average guy and in '52 platooned Wertz. Took the guy with the nearly .400 OBP and 133 RBI and sat him against lefties. The Tigers went from 95 wins in '50 to 73 in '51 to 50 in '52. It wasn't all because they platooned Wertz, but it didn't help. Wertz didn't hit any better being platooned than he did before, and the Tigers used a bunch of nobodies against lefties like Bud Scouchok or Cliff Mapes. Sure, maybe in theory they were going to be half a win better than Wertz facing lefties, but so what? They took a young star with confidence and instead of getting him to work on hitting lefties Rolfe sat him, the team tanked, he was fired, and Wertz' career kind of went off track. He ended up with an okay career, but he got stuck with the platoon label for a long time and he never again had a four-win season.  Took until he was in his 30s to have a couple more really solid, full-time seasons.

Just leave Henderson alone. Let him work on some things to attack lefties better. Let him play, stay confident, get established. No reason whatsoever to risk anything by trying to turn him into a platoon player at 22.

[btdart20]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd just let him play. I don't think you're ekeing out any more wins by sitting Henderson against lefties.

Here's your Drungo lesson of the day, you can put as much or little weight in it as you want: Vic Wertz was a young star for the Tigers in the late 40s and early 50s. Hit pretty well as a rookie in '47, had a really big year in '49 (.304 with 20 homers, 133 RBI, 80 walks), played even better in '50, still had a really good year in '51 (.285-27-94 with 78 walks).  All star three times, got some down-ballot MVP support in '49-50.

But he didn't hit lefties very well. So his manager, Red Rolfe, decided he was smarter than the average guy and in '52 platooned Wertz. Took the guy with the nearly .400 OBP and 133 RBI and sat him against lefties. The Tigers went from 95 wins in '50 to 73 in '51 to 50 in '52. It wasn't all because they platooned Wertz, but it didn't help. Wertz didn't hit any better being platooned than he did before, and the Tigers used a bunch of nobodies against lefties like Bud Scouchok or Cliff Mapes. Sure, maybe in theory they were going to be half a win better than Wertz facing lefties, but so what? They took a young star with confidence and instead of getting him to work on hitting lefties Rolfe sat him, the team tanked, he was fired, and Wertz' career kind of went off track. He ended up with an okay career, but he got stuck with the platoon label for a long time and he never again had a four-win season.  Took until he was in his 30s to have a couple more really solid, full-time seasons.

Just leave Henderson alone. Let him work on some things to attack lefties better. Let him play, stay confident, get established. No reason whatsoever to risk anything by trying to turn him into a platoon player at 22.

I barely recognize the name.  Neat piece of history.  

Wertz was traded to the soon-to-be Orioles (aka STL Browns) in 1952.  He still hit well against RHP and poorly against LHP (I didn't look at every season, but through 1957).  Only the first 29 games of 1954 in Baltimore's inaugural season did he really have bad overall stats.  1955 looks like there could be an injury?  Then the two years you mention of him being solid.  

The Vulcan in me says there are other variables at play.  The human in me says there's a difficult to measure mental/emotional/relational impact to life and the game.