I don't mind Mateo/Mullins running, but......

[backdoorslider]

They better reach that base safely. Ain't no way in hell should we be running into outs right in front of Adley. Nobody wants to pitch to this guy. Overall to start the season they have done a very good job of not getting caught, but that caught stealing really stings with Adley on deck in tie games. I do not like taking the bat out of the hands of our best hitter. Maybe I'm just too old school, but caught stealing REALLY irritates me.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Well, runners get caught. Nobody has a 100% success rate. The only way to not get caught is to never try. 

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, backdoorslider said:

They better reach that base safely. Ain't no way in hell should we be running into outs right in front of Adley. Nobody wants to pitch to this guy. Overall to start the season they have done a very good job of not getting caught, but that caught stealing really stings with Adley on deck in tie games. I do not like taking the bat out of the hands of our best hitter. Maybe I'm just too old school, but caught stealing REALLY irritates me.

Is that you Earl?

[Frobby]

The O’s have been successful more than 90% of the time.  I’ll take those odds every day and twice on Sunday. 

[sportsfan8703]

But… only when they get thrown out. Hahaha. That literally took a perfect throw. I like their chances. They’re on pace for like 80 steals each. 

[emmett16]

Remember @DrungoHazewood dropping  Knowledge on what % success rates makes sense to run.  Think it was ~85% if I remover correctly.  Havnt made it that far in “The Book” yet.

[spleen1015]

4 hours ago, backdoorslider said:

They better reach that base safely. Ain't no way in hell should we be running into outs right in front of Adley. Nobody wants to pitch to this guy. Overall to start the season they have done a very good job of not getting caught, but that caught stealing really stings with Adley on deck in tie games. I do not like taking the bat out of the hands of our best hitter. Maybe I'm just too old school, but caught stealing REALLY irritates me.

I'm guessing you don't know how many runs succesfully stealing has led to, do ya?

[BirdMan]

Players that can steal bases, lead to fastballs for batters. Players in scoring position means a base hit can score runs and you don't need an extra base hit. Players that can steal bases at a high percentage put pressure on defenses, which lead to errors. Base stealing is one of our biggest assets. We need to run.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, BirdMan said:

Players that can steal bases, lead to fastballs for batters.

Hey look!

Someone studied this as well!

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/effect-baserunners-mlb-pitch-selection

Quote

Thus, our analysis has confirmed the intuition that base runners change the behavior of pitchers. The reason for this seems to be solely the threat of a stolen base. Having a runner on first, one of the fastest runners in the league on first, and one of the top base stealers increase the percentage of fastballs 2.5%, 5%, and 8% respectively. In the latter case, pitchers throw nearly a quarter fewer breaking balls.

 

[BirdMan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hey look!

Someone studied this as well!

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/effect-baserunners-mlb-pitch-selection

 

Another thing I should also have pointed out is that pitchers are forced to sidestep with decreases velocity and become easier to hit.

[sportsfan8703]

If they keep this pace up, they’re going to be like a combined 160/180 on stolen bases. You take that all day. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Remember @DrungoHazewood dropping  Knowledge on what % success rates makes sense to run.  Think it was ~85% if I remover correctly.  Havnt made it that far in “The Book” yet.

It’s more like 70-72%.  It varies a little depending on the overall run scoring environment.  In a low scoring environment, the break-even percentage goes down, in a high scoring era it goes up a bit.  

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s more like 70-72%.  It varies a little depending on the overall run scoring environment.  In a low scoring environment, the break-even percentage goes down, in a high scoring era it goes up a bit.  

Guess I have some HW to do  

[Alasdaire]

You said this in the game thread and it didn't make sense there either.

Mateo is an 8/9 guy, Mullins is ideally leading off, and Adley is the perfect 2. So they're usually going to be getting on in front of Adley. These are prolific stealers who are even better with the new rules. And stealing is highly successful in absolute terms. To say that they shouldn't run because they're in front of Adley means you think they shouldn't run. Which would be a bad risk:reward and a waste of their abilities.

Oh, so they can run so long as they make sure they make it? What does that mean? Do you think they're not getting the best jump they can and sprinting? I'm sure the catcher/pitcher is already being taken into consideration as it always has been.

[OriolesMagic83]

With the assist from the new rules, guys like Mateo should have a green light whenever he feels he can steal a base.  I thought maybe Mateo was going to get a balk w/ the 2 throw overs. 

I can vividly remember how good Rickey Henderson was like it was very recent.  Some of his leads it seemed he was already 1/4 of the way to 2b.