I don't mind Mateo/Mullins running, but......

[DrungoHazewood]

On 4/15/2023 at 6:44 PM, emmett16 said:

Remember @DrungoHazewood dropping  Knowledge on what % success rates makes sense to run.  Think it was ~85% if I remover correctly.  Havnt made it that far in “The Book” yet.

Depends on the run context and the base/out/score/inning situation, but in most cases the breakeven point in roughly 4, 4.5-run baseball is somewhere around 75%.  In general, if you're getting caught 30%+ of the time you're costing your team runs.

[Filmstudy]

On 4/15/2023 at 9:43 PM, Frobby said:

It’s more like 70-72%.  It varies a little depending on the overall run scoring environment.  In a low scoring environment, the break-even percentage goes down, in a high scoring era it goes up a bit.  

That's the right neighborhood as I recall from Bill James talking about Henderson hurting the A's in 1982 (slightly) with his 128 SB season.  It's also about right by the old linear weights model.

One thing I don't often hear discussed is how not running enough can hurt you.  The idea is this, the Orioles have stolen 25/28 successfully (89.2%), which is clearly a net positive of runs, but are they passing up on marginal opportunities to steal with an 80% success rate given the new environment for pitcher constraints/base-to-base distance?  I'm not saying that is happening necessarily, but it's something to inspect with the team and league SB% in the stratosphere.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Filmstudy