Cade Povich 2023

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Chaka Garcia said:

Can anyone in a nutshell describe why Povich is a better prospect than Rom? Both are the same age, but Rom is at Norfolk. Is it velocity?

When I watch Rom pitch everything looks the same.  Does he have one plus pitch?   Povich sounds like he throws a bit harder but both the curve and changeup look plus at times.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Chaka Garcia said:

Can anyone in a nutshell describe why Povich is a better prospect than Rom? Both are the same age, but Rom is at Norfolk. Is it velocity?

Povich throws 5 pitches.  He has a hammer 12/6 curve.  Mixes in a cutter, slider and change.  He’s a 6’3” with long arms and gets good extensions.   Higher k/9 and lower bb/9.  Fastball is sneaky fast at 94 especially when he pitches backwards.  Curveball is plus and the slider change flirt with being plus at times.   He’s 23 and lean and likely to add a tick or two On the FB.  He’s free and easy and mixes all his pitches which makes for a tough AB.  He can lose his command from time to time which is why he’s put up some stinkers every once in a while.  But when he’s on, he’s darn good.  Everything I’ve seen on social media points to a hard working driven young man.  

[Sports Guy]

He is really on a roll.

So far, through 5 innings today, he has 10 Ks. He has missed 17 bats in only 79 pitches. That’s about 22% of total pitches thrown. 

Crazy stat.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Sports Guy

[vab]

Povich 5ip, 3h, 0r, 1 bb, 10k today. Lopez trade looking better and better. 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is really on a roll.

So far, through 5 innings today, he has 10 Ks. He has missed 17 bats in only 79 pitches. That’s about 22% of total pitches thrown. 

Crazy stat.

He'll be with Kjerstad as the biggest mover on the various cheat sheets.  My orange-tinted lenses would love to see him bumping near top 30 nationally!  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

He'll be with Kjerstad as the biggest mover on the various cheat sheets.  My orange-tinted lenses would love to see him bumping near top 30 nationally!  

I tend to doubt that happens just because this publications don’t usually move that fast.

Remember, only McDaniel even had him listed.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Dominant start today and now 44 K / 10 BB in 26.2 IP.  If he keeps it up, how many starts before he’s bumped up to AAA?

Could he potentially debut later this year if they send him to AAA soon and he continues doing well? He threw 114 IP last year so he’s not likely to have a significant innings limit this year. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He is really on a roll.

So far, through 5 innings today, he has 10 Ks. He has missed 17 bats in only 79 pitches. That’s about 22% of total pitches thrown. 

Crazy stat.

Slightly disappointing that they removed him after 5 IP, having thrown only 79 pitches.  

Povich has made 6 starts, and in starts 2, 4 and 6, he threw 5 shutout innings.  In starts 4 and 6, he struck out 10.  In the odd-numbered starts, he’s yielded 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings.  So, he’s dominant when he’s on, but needs to show more consistency.  But even in the “off” starts, he’s struck out 17 batters in those 11.2 innings, to go with 27 K’s in 15 IP in the “good” starts. 

He’s only yielded one home run so far, and he’s walked 10, which is pretty reasonable in 26.2 IP.   

Lots to be encouraged about.  



 

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Slightly disappointing that they removed him after 5 IP, having thrown only 79 pitches.  

Povich has made 6 starts, and in starts 2, 4 and 6, he threw 5 shutout innings.  In starts 4 and 6, he struck out 10.  In the odd-numbered starts, he’s yielded 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings.  So, he’s dominant when he’s on, but needs to show more consistency.  But even in the “off” starts, he’s struck out 17 batters in those 11.2 innings, to go with 27 K’s in 15 IP in the “good” starts. 

He’s only yielded one home run so far, and he’s walked 10, which is pretty reasonable in 26.2 IP.   

Lots to be encouraged about.  
 

How do they work those splits and only start him on the evens?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Slightly disappointing that they removed him after 5 IP, having thrown only 79 pitches.  

Povich has made 6 starts, and in starts 2, 4 and 6, he threw 5 shutout innings.  In starts 4 and 6, he struck out 10.  In the odd-numbered starts, he’s yielded 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings.  So, he’s dominant when he’s on, but needs to show more consistency.  But even in the “off” starts, he’s struck out 17 batters in those 11.2 innings, to go with 27 K’s in 15 IP in the “good” starts. 

He’s only yielded one home run so far, and he’s walked 10, which is pretty reasonable in 26.2 IP.   

Lots to be encouraged about.  



 

For Givens, who took 16 pitches to get 1 out.

Povich also picked off one of the 4 baserunners that reached base.

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Dominant start today and now 44 K / 10 BB in 26.2 IP.  If he keeps it up, how many starts before he’s bumped up to AAA?

Could he potentially debut later this year if they send him to AAA soon and he continues doing well? He threw 114 IP last year so he’s not likely to have a significant innings limit this year. 

I doubt he'll be an MLB option in 2023.  But he could be a fast mover next year.  My current best guess with a ton of assumptions, biases, and total lack of knowledge:  he's only in Norfolk for 2-3 starts to finish the season.  I suspect they will want the AAA guys as sharp as possible and ready just in case they're needed in Baltimore.

[Just Regular]

I hope and also mostly believe that everyone in the Org at AA and up has a path to the roster this fall if they play like the best Wins odds maximizers.

Also one guy at Aberdeen....of course Jake Lyons.

Iron sharpening iron gets even more fun when guys with like 2 WAR/600 PA may not be strong enough to hold their positions anymore.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I doubt he'll be an MLB option in 2023.  But he could be a fast mover next year.  My current best guess with a ton of assumptions, biases, and total lack of knowledge:  he's only in Norfolk for 2-3 starts to finish the season.  I suspect they will want the AAA guys as sharp as possible and ready just in case they're needed in Baltimore.

Looking at the Drew Rom path to Norfolk, he made 9 appearances in Bowie in 2021 and then another 19 in 2022.   That’s basically a full MiL season worth of starts in AA, before a late season (8/21) promotion to Norfolk.  

In Povich’s case, he made 6 appearance in Norfolk last year, so I’m figuring that “par” would be another 22 this year, of which he’s made 6.   That would put him on schedule for a late August promotion. 

There are at least two factors that could affect the timetable.  First, how well does he pitch?   If he starts to dominate consistently rather than intermittently, he might move faster than Rom, who was solid but not spectacular.  And on the other hand, what’s going on with the Norfolk rotation and with Povich’s teammate Justin Armbruester, who’s been at Bowie a bit longer (14 appearances, 10 starts last year) and is performing very well (2.17 ERA this year) despite not having as exciting a repertoire as Povich’s.  There’s only so much room at Norfolk and its rotation is way better than the one that made room for Rom last August.  

Putting first things first, let’s see some consistent pitching from Povich.  I went back to look at his game log at Bowie last year, and it was very similar to this one: literally every second game was a good one, and the alternates were dogs   So, he’s literally never had two good or bad gsmes in a row in his 12 Bowie outings the last two years.  Overall, he’s been much better this year than last, but the pattern is the same.  So, a string of 4-5 good starts in a row would be nice.

It looks like Povich’s next outing will be Wednesday May 17 at home.  I’m thinking of going to the game to help him break the Odd Game Curse.  The opponent will be Altoona, against whom he had his worst outing of the year back on April 21.    Should be a good test.

 

[btdart20]

The word of the day when looking at Povich's Even/Odd phenomenon:  Apophenia.  

 

[ChosenOne21]

Povich is like the Star Trek movies. Even numbered ones are good