10% of the season

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I don't think anyone thinks that this is a 90 win team as currently constructed.  Not with the pitching issues this team has.

 

I wouldn't say that 90 is our median outcome but it's certainly in the range of what we're capable of. Basically last year's 83 wins plus addition-by-subtraction of Odor and Lyles, full season of Adley, easier schedule, and contributions from Gunnar, Grayson, and Benson could add up to 90.

[Aristotelian]

Who is Benson? I meant Gibson. 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I wouldn't say that 90 is our median outcome but it's certainly in the range of what we're capable of. Basically last year's 83 wins plus addition-by-subtraction of Odor and Lyles, full season of Adley, easier schedule, and contributions from Gunnar, Grayson, and Benson could add up to 90.

I think it's in the range.  The pitching needs to get ironed out for that to happen though.

The offense has been a really pleasant surprise.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I don't think anyone thinks that this is a 90 win team as currently constructed.  Not with the pitching issues this team has.

 

I would say that I don't think they're a 90 win team with the way the starting pitchers are currently performing.  But, that assumes that the current available starters will continue to perform in the same way.  Kremer has been better in the past so he could find his footing and get back to being a decent starter.  Rodriguez certainly has the talent and time to improve.  Irvin was much better the last two years, even if those years did have some question marks.  Hall is still on the farm and Means continues to rehab.  Bradish will be back soon.

So I don't think it's "as currently constructed", so much as "if we don't see improvement from the starting pitching.

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

I would say that I don't think they're a 90 win team with the way the starting pitchers are currently performing.  But, that assumes that the current available starters will continue to perform in the same way.  Kremer has been better in the past so he could find his footing and get back to being a decent starter.  Rodriguez certainly has the talent and time to improve.  Irvin was much better the last two years, even if those years did have some question marks.  Hall is still on the farm and Means continues to rehab.  Bradish will be back soon.

So I don't think it's "as currently constructed", so much as "if we don't see improvement from the starting pitching.

But this isn't necessarily true.  We all agree that the pitching has not been as good as hoped.  But they ARE on a 90 win pace even with what it is doing and the defensive struggles.

The offense can't carry the entire load, so the pitching needs to improve.  The real question is does anyone think the current pitching can improve.  I think perhaps it can, but may need some ASB assistance to shore up the results further.  But I also do not think what we have seen through 16 games is what we are.

As I said earlier, I think we have to give it 50 games.  IF our offense is still mashing and our defense improves but pitching is holding this team back, then I think we can expect moves.

In the short run, I am impressed that the O's have quickly moved to bring back Grayson and also to send Irvin down.  Pitching is going to be the determining factor, but there is no reason to panic that the O's cannot compete as constructed.  Maybe that is right, but it is too early to tell.  Small sample or not, they have so far overcome themselves.

[Sports Guy]

Let’s not forget something when you are hammering on the pitching..the defense has sucked.

Part of the reason the pitching was so good last year was because of the defense. Right now, that has taken a step back and the OF in particular is killing us, which of course hurts when you have a flyball pitching staff.

Last year, OAA had the Os at +2 and 15th in the league overalls. This year they are next to last, -9.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by Sports Guy

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s not forget something when you are hammering on the pitching..the defense has sucked.

Part of the reason the pitching was so good last year was because of the defense. Right now, that has taken a step back and the OF in particular is killing us, which of course hurts when you have a flyball pitching staff.

Hays is in the first percentile in OAA and has just generally been terrible out there so far. You have to keep his bat in the lineup right now but his defense is a major concern for me especially LF at home. They need a corner outfielder to step up defensively. 

[24fps]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I do.   The pitching will get straighten out.

Because Mike Elias and ownership has left no doubt in anyone's mind that they will do whatever it takes?

I agree with everybody else who points out that 10% is far to small a sample size to infer anything meaningful.  We've had a much longer time to draw conclusions about those whose job it would be to straighten out the pitching.

[wildcard]

Kyle Gibson is on pace to go 30-0.   But Gerrit Cole and Shane McClanahan are on pace for 40-0.

[Daddy-O's]

It is amazing how much expectations have changed in a year.  

[Sydnor]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

Hays is in the first percentile in OAA and has just generally been terrible out there so far. You have to keep his bat in the lineup right now but his defense is a major concern for me especially LF at home. They need a corner outfielder to step up defensively. 

Hays’ defense has been mostly by reputation for a few seasons now, and this season is the continuation of a downward trend. I’d like to think he won’t be as bad as he has been thus far because he’d be at around -30 OAA for the season. However, given that he was at -6 OAA for the season last year, I’m hoping he can get to below average instead of terrible.

[NCRaven]

57 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Kyle Gibson is on pace to go 30-0.   But Gerrit Cole and Shane McClanahan are on pace for 40-0.

I know you're joking, but neither will get 40 starts in the modern game.  So, make it 35-0 at best. 

 

[Just Regular]

Adley off days: 0

Gunnar has gotten the Decision Science of Rest treatment I expected.    The Adley deployment has been interesting...how long will it go?

I like his chances even vs. the elite Trout/Vlad/Judge type guys to stay near the league OBP lead.     You have to figure he'll wear down more than them in time though.

I joked in the offseason about hoping for Gunnar 162 games and 700 PA...maybe I had the wrong guy.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s not forget something when you are hammering on the pitching..the defense has sucked.

Part of the reason the pitching was so good last year was because of the defense. Right now, that has taken a step back and the OF in particular is killing us, which of course hurts when you have a flyball pitching staff.

Last year, OAA had the Os at +2 and 15th in the league overalls. This year they are next to last, -9.

 

My instinct is you are right, though the stats are mixed.  The team ERA is 5.27, but the FIP is 4.53.    On the other hand the opposing hitters have a .340 xwOBA compared to a .342 wOBA, which is a trivial difference.   But watching the games and duly making note of the good and bad defensive plays, my gut tells me that though only 4 “unearned” runs have been scored, the impact has been much greater.  

[Flash- bd]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Who is Benson? I meant Gibson. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bensokr01.shtml

Back from retirement?