I would have given Pablo Lopez this deal 10 times out of 10

[RZNJ]

52 minutes ago, banks703 said:

We don't know what the comparative comp would have been for Pablo Lopez. Miami received a 2b in return for him. It was widely speculated that it would have taken Mullins but that doesn't mean that is where a deal began and ended with them. 

 

Personally, I think Urias is the comp for Arraez.  

I don't think the Marlins think Urias is the comp for Arraez.     Talk was that they wanted Mullins.

[banks703]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And ace?  I don’t think you know who Pablo Lopez is.

Agreed that Pablo isn't an Ace, especially not in the AL but I think that he is currently better than at least three of today's rotation pieces. 

 

He recently turned 27 years old. If Urias and Stowers would have netted the O's Pablo Lopez, I would have made that deal. I might have even considered Urias and Santander for Lopez+.

 

With how rapidly the salaries of SP have increased and appear to be continuing to increase, guys with ML success for around $18mil per year are becoming more rare, especially when considering that he is locked up for five years counting this year. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

Interesting take.. what gives you the impression that he wouldn't have agreed to an extension in Baltimore? 

 

 

 

It just hasn't really ever happened. They signed Means to an extra year when he went down with TJS. I think they were talking to Tillman about an extension, but he wound up getting a 1-year deal in 2018. 

When have the Orioles signed a starting pitcher to a long-term extension? Especially following a trade? Whether it's ownership or management, it just hasn't really happened here. Usually, that's because pitchers take a look at the state of the team and the homer-friendly ballpark and say no thanks. That's obviously different right now, so it's perhaps slightly more likely, but nothing historically tells us it would happen. 

It's why I'm against trading for any SP with less than 3 years of control unless we're really, REALLY looking like a for real playoff team. It's just not worth nuking the farm system for a 2-year rental. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by interloper

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say that Urias is the best Arraez comp, but Arraez is < Mullins. 

Says who?  Arraez has been worth 11.5 rWAR, 8.0 fWAR and is barely 26 years old. Mullins has been worth 9.8 rWAR, 10.5 fWAR and is 28.5 years old.  The Arbitrators who heard Arraez’s case awarded him a salary that’s $2 mm more than Mullins is making, and even the Twins’ offer was $900 k above what Mullins is making.  

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Agreed that Pablo isn't an Ace, especially not in the AL but I think that he is currently better than at least three of today's rotation pieces. 

 

He recently turned 27 years old. If Urias and Stowers would have netted the O's Pablo Lopez, I would have made that deal. I might have even considered Urias and Santander for Lopez+.

 

With how rapidly the salaries of SP have increased and appear to be continuing to increase, guys with ML success for around $18mil per year are becoming more rare, especially when considering that he is locked up for five years counting this year. 

Lopez was a fine target. I touted getting him for over a year.

But he became overrated on this site. He’s a good pitcher but he’s not an ace, a #1 and probably not a #2, at least not a very good #2.  He’s a borderline 2/3 guy who was close to free agency.

 

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

It just hasn't really ever happened. They signed Means to an extra year when he went down with TJS. I think they were talking to Tillman about an extension, but he wound up getting a 1-year deal in 2018. 

When have the Orioles signed a starting pitcher to a long-term extension? Especially following a trade? Whether it's ownership or management, it just hasn't really happened here. Usually, that's because pitchers take a look at the state of the team and the homer-friendly ballpark and say no thanks. That's obviously different right now, so it's perhaps slightly more likely, but nothing historically tells us it would happen. 

It's why I'm against trading for any SP with less than 3 years of control unless we're really, REALLY looking like a for real playoff team. It's just not worth nuking the farm system for a 2-year rental. 

Can any one trade that the Orioles make "nuke" their farm system with the depth and level of talent that is there right now? Even if we gave up 3 top 100 players, we would still have 4 left. Which is more than many teams including just about all in our division.

[Just Regular]

With one Arb year left that might have been near 1/10 or 1/12, I guess roughly this one is about the same as Bassitt's 3/63 for free agent years, except MIN is making that guarantee 1.9 seasons earlier.

If John Means can return for 1.4 good seasons, it might be about the ballpark he can get to.

Edited April 17, 2023 by Just Regular

[orioles22]

He may have been a 2 or 3 before, but he would be a 1 for us, and he's pitching like a  1 for the Twins. I think he was worth the gamble and was our best chance to fill that role.

[emmett16]

9 hours ago, interloper said:

Sure, but the Orioles have absolutely no track record of successfully extending players, much less starting pitchers. I don't think we succeed in getting him to agree to this in Baltimore, but we'll never know. 

Ever been to Minneapolis in April?  JK - it’s an amazing town.  But the winters, early spring, and late fall age not for the faint of heart.  They do support the hall of their teams, however.  

[emmett16]

18 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

He may have been a 2 or 3 before, but he would be a 1 for us, and he's pitching like a  1 for the Twins. I think he was worth the gamble and was our best chance to fill that role.

He was a stud in WBC.  Havnt checked on him recently but he was sitting 1-2mph faster than last years avg during the tournament.  I really wish he was on the roster. 

[emmett16]

25 minutes ago, orioles22 said:

He may have been a 2 or 3 before, but he would be a 1 for us, and he's pitching like a  1 for the Twins. I think he was worth the gamble and was our best chance to fill that role.

He was a stud in WBC.  Havnt checked on him recently but he was sitting 1-2mph faster than last years avg during the tournament.  I really wish he was on the roster. 

[emmett16]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Lopez was a fine target. I touted getting him for over a year.

But he became overrated on this site. He’s a good pitcher but he’s not an ace, a #1 and probably not a #2, at least not a very good #2.  He’s a borderline 2/3 guy who was close to free agency.

 

Not sure the definition of Ace, but he leads MLB in Ks, has a 1.73 era, 2.71 FIP, and a.808 WHIP.  He has not been an “ace” in the past but sure is pitching like one this year beginning with the WBC.  Will he sustain it, I dunno but MN must be giddy right now with what they got even having given up an 11 WAR player. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Not sure the definition of Ace, but he leads MLB in Ks, has a 1.73 era, 2.71 FIP, and a.808 WHIP.  He has not been an “ace” in the past but sure is pitching like one this year beginning with the WBC.  Will he sustain it, I dunno but MN must be giddy right now with what they got even having given up an 11 WAR player. 

Well the definition of an ace certainly isn’t, be a solid guy for most of your career and then have a few great starts to begin a season.

[emmett16]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well the definition of an ace certainly isn’t, be a solid guy for most of your career and then have a few great starts to begin a season.

He turned 27 last month and his stuff has  improved steadily.  I’d say he’s fairly projectable having already logged 5 years MLB by age 26 at a 3.7 FIP. Increased velocity and increased control.  

Edited April 18, 2023 by emmett16

[Sports Guy]

30 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He turned 27 last month and his stuff has  improved steadily.  I’d say he’s fairly projectable having already logged 5 years MLB by age 26 at a 3.7 FIP. Increased velocity and increased control.  

Saying 5 years is extremely deceiving.

He has one season over 22 starts. He has one season where he eclipsed 112 innings.

3.7 FIP isn’t an ace. It’s good to very good but it’s not an ace. He has a career ERA+ of 109 and he’s coming off his worse FIP and ERA+ season since 2019.

He is also is coming off his worst str% in 3 years, although it was still above average (you mentioned control, which is the only reason I mention this)

Hes not an ace. He has never been an ace and it’s unlikely he will ever be one. He can still be a very good pitcher though but no need to pretend he’s something that he’s not.