Let’s assume Mateo is an .800+ OPS, 5+ WAR shortstop — now what?

[Sports Guy]

You trade him obviously 

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What if you trade the player for equally valuable players at positions where you need help more than at SS.

Ok Maybe.   But....

I do not know what the O's need that is worth trading Mateo the way he is performing.  The  O's  that  are 16-8.   Performance of the team is high.   You would be ripping a high performing  offensive and defensive player off the team that the players  depend on.

I don't  know what the O's  could get that would be worth that.

Unlike many I like the potential of Wells, Gibson, Bradish, GRod and Kremer.  

[Hank Scorpio]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You trade him obviously 

I agree. I think the return could be substantial.

[Billy F-Face3]

It's a great problem to have. All I know is that I enjoy watching him play right now. I'm not naive though... I also know that at some point in the future, he will probably be playing for a new team. I don't know when that will be or how long we have him as an Oriole. But for right now, I am enjoying the ride. It's fun to see him sprint around the bases for the Orioles.

From a purely business aspect of a GM's point of view, I think you take the calls when you get them but you hold your ground for what the team wants, and if no one offers proper value, you stick with what you have. If they do, then well, you know how things happen in the league.

[Jammer7]

You could go in any direction, honestly. You have to be deliberate as an organization when the time comes, either way. On one hand, not one prospect is a sure thing at SS. Mateo, if he is the .800 OPS 5+WAR guy, might be the guy you can build around in the infield. He might have 5-7 good years left. That would give you the C, SS and CF you want on your championship run. You can plug in pieces and parts around that to make that deep long run. Those contracts won’t escalate the payroll beyond our reach. The scary thing is there is more untapped potential with Mateo, offensively. He has legitimate pop if he can stay gap to gap.

On the other hand, you trade him and hope the pieces you pick up stay healthy and maybe one of them has the impact Mateo has right now, but in a few years…maybe. You hope Gunnar and/or Jackson Holliday do not outgrow the MIF positions. A lot can happen along the way to becoming the SS we already have.

It comes down to when are they going to plant their flag firmly in the ground and say they are ready to go to war with the guys they have. Or are we going to keep stockpiling prospects on top 100 lists that take 2-3 years to season into MLB players.

We don’t need to make the decision yet, but it is coming. And it’s a great question. For me, time to stand up and take the Yankees and Astros lunch money. I run with Mateo for now, and explore what he wants for an extension at season’s end. If it makes sense, maybe you do it. Depends on a lot of things we do not know, and likely won’t. Either way, be decisive and deliberate. 

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Ok Maybe.   But....

I do not know what the O's need that is worth trading Mateo the way he is performing.  The  O's  that  are 16-8.   Performance of the team is high.   You would be ripping a high performing  offensive and defensive player off the team that the players  depend on.

I don't  know what the O's  could get that would be worth that.

Unlike many I like the potential of Wells, Gibson, Bradish, GRod and Kremer.  

My question didn’t really relate to trading Mateo right now, since he hasn’t put up an .800+, 5 rWAR season.  I don’t think another team would value him that way right now, despite the several posters here who are ready to assume that Mateo has now permanently turned over a new leaf offensively.  I think most GMs would need to see more than 25 games of great play.  

[24fps]

If Elias' strategy is to grow the bats and trade for the arms, then maybe it's time to see some evidence of that.  If Mateo can continue to show that he's turned a big corner, then yeah, you trade him for pitching obviously. 

If Elias had a more balanced approach to organizational development, I would be a lot more inclined to keep Mateo because he's an exciting player to watch.

[sevastras]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My question didn’t really relate to trading Mateo right now, since he hasn’t put up an .800+, 5 rWAR season.  I don’t think another team would value him that way right now, despite the several posters here who are ready to assume that Mateo has now permanently turned over a new leaf offensively.  I think most GMs would need to see more than 25 games of great play.  

I wouldn’t trade him until after the season at this point. I really like the guy, but I also liked Schoop and Pie.  Just because I like them for what I perceive them as, as a person, doesn’t change my business decision.  I am fairly certain after Elias traded Mancini that he also doesn’t car what anyone thinks. As tough as that was, there was no reason to extend him and why not get a return for him?  I don’t care if Mateo puts up 7 war this season and next, no chance I would sign him to an extension. Can’t afford another Chris Davis situation where you have to keep someone just because you are paying him a lot of money. I hope the best for Mateo, but like I said, there are some really good options in the wings who will cost less next year or the year after. Felt the same way about Mullins but there hasn’t been a legitimate replacement for him. 

[Sydnor]

Under this hypothetical, I’d extend him. Other than Ortiz, I don’t know if the team has another major league quality defensive SS in the system (I haven’t seen Holliday and have no opinion because of that). Before he took his account private, Jon Shepherd was called an idiot for saying that he and some scouts he had talked to thought Gunnar would end up in an OF corner. I’m not there yet, but what if they are correct. I also am in the extension camp because I think a Mateo extension would be pretty reasonable even under this hypothetical. A Mateo, Henderson, Ortiz infield has a lot of potential defensively and could serve as a strong foundation for competing over the next several years under this assumption.

[Il BuonO]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

Ok Maybe.   But....

I do not know what the O's need that is worth trading Mateo the way he is performing.  The  O's  that  are 16-8.   Performance of the team is high.   You would be ripping a high performing  offensive and defensive player off the team that the players  depend on.

I don't  know what the O's  could get that would be worth that.

Unlike many I like the potential of Wells, Gibson, Bradish, GRod and Kremer.  

Pitching. Pitching is what they need. An AS quality SS possibly packaged with a prospect or two may bring them back an ace. 

Again, pitching. Starting pitching.

Because….any potential Gibson had is about five years past due. The other guys? Sure. I’m willing to wait and see, but none of them (including Rodriguez) is an ace. Gibson has never been that.

[Jagwar]

I could be wrong but I think many in this thread are overestimating the type of return Mateo might deliver in a trade, because I'm not sure about how other GM's would value his body of work. Yes, a gold glove, 800 OPS, 5 WAR lightning bolt is highly coveted. But Mateo has yet to show that he is that player for the long run. 

I personally would try to trade him at the deadline if Ortiz shows that he can hit ML pitching, but I wouldn't be shocked if the return is underwhelming. (Unless there is a GM out there who overpays)   

[IPlayGM]

6 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

I could be wrong but I think many in this thread are overestimating the type of return Mateo might deliver in a trade, because I'm not sure about how other GM's would value his body of work. Yes, a gold glove, 800 OPS, 5 WAR lightning bolt is highly coveted. But Mateo has yet to show that he is that player for the long run. 

I personally would try to trade him at the deadline if Ortiz shows that he can hit ML pitching, but I wouldn't be shocked if the return is underwhelming. (Unless there is a GM out there who overpays)   

To me this is the key part. In a bubble, you would say no to trading a guy who is doing what he is doing, and hypothetically continuing. But taking a step back and looking at this organizationally, trading has to be the decision at some point, the question shifts to when? In my opinion, one of the many reasons Ortiz is up is to see if he can hit enough to make Mateo go on the block. Holliday is the future SS. If Ortiz hits, you maximize organizational strength and trade Mateo earlier. I could see it as early as the trade deadline (unlikely), but to me the off-season is more likely.  Now if Ortiz doesn’t hit, then that becomes a different scenario/timeframe.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, IPlayGM said:

To me this is the key part. In a bubble, you would say no to trading a guy who is doing what he is doing, and hypothetically continuing. But taking a step back and looking at this organizationally, trading has to be the decision at some point, the question shifts to when? In my opinion, one of the many reasons Ortiz is up is to see if he can hit enough to make Mateo go on the block. Holliday is the future SS. If Ortiz hits, you maximize organizational strength and trade Mateo earlier. I could see it as early as the trade deadline (unlikely), but to me the off-season is more likely.  Now if Ortiz doesn’t hit, then that becomes a different scenario/timeframe.

I am waiting to see Ortiz range at SS.   It doesn't look like Gunnar has Mateo range at SS.    If Mateo is to be traded I want someone to knock him out of the SS position.   Mateo's contract demand could make the O's move on from him but that is yet to develop.

[Jagwar]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am waiting to see Ortiz range at SS.   It doesn't look like Gunnar has Mateo range at SS.    If Mateo is to be traded I want someone to knock him out of the SS position.   Mateo's contract demand could make the O's move on from him but that is yet to develop.

Who does have Mateo's range at short?

In my estimation it is all about aggregate value and wins. If Elias trades Mateo, you're giving up a player offering significant production. But can you exceed the overall value/wins by inserting Ortiz and acquiring players (especially pitching)?

[InsideCoroner]

I think you keep him for now and then if he stays this hot, trade him with a year+ left to maximize the return. I’m not convinced this club will lock anyone up long term, so get what you can for him.

I kept waiting for him to start flailing at everything once more, but I read how he overhauled his swing in the offseason, got rid of his leg kick, staying on the ball and pulling it more. And so far it’s remarkable. He’s swinging at nearly 25% less pitches outside the zone, and he’s top 75 in MLB in both average exit velo and hard hit ball percentage. He’s a hell of a lot of fun to watch, that’s for sure.