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Let’s assume Mateo is an .800+ OPS, 5+ WAR shortstop — now what?


Frobby

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I really wish that every time a player plays well, there wasn’t immediate speculation about trading him. Mateo is an example of why I watch baseball. Speed. Competitive fire. Power. Spectacular plays on D. He’s must see TV. Scoring from first to tie the game in the 8th the other day - on a double to LEFT FIELD??!  Freaking awesome. As a fan I just want to watch this guy as much as possible and worry about the rest later. 
 

Sometimes the economics of baseball overshadows the FUN of baseball. And there’s not a whole lot in the majors right now that is more FUN than the way Mateo is playing. So you guys speculate all you want, I’m just going to enjoy it while it lasts. 

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I have to admit, I was in favor of trading Mateo this offseason.  I thought a .600ish OPS SS w/ GG defense was what he was.  Congrats to him on making some positive changes to his swing and getting in peak shape in the offseason.

At this point, you have to keep him thru this season as he is a key part to the O's offense and defense.  If he puts up a .800ish OPS w/ GG defense, he'll have good trade value.  I would think his value might be close to Mullins.  A player who can be the key piece in getting a 2022 Pablo Lopez type pitcher. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I really wish that every time a player plays well, there wasn’t immediate speculation about trading him. Mateo is an example of why I watch baseball. Speed. Competitive fire. Power. Spectacular plays on D. He’s must see TV. Scoring from first to tie the game in the 8th the other day - on a double to LEFT FIELD??!  Freaking awesome. As a fan I just want to watch this guy as much as possible and worry about the rest later. 
 

Sometimes the economics of baseball overshadows the FUN of baseball. And there’s not a whole lot in the majors right now that is more FUN than the way Mateo is playing. So you guys speculate all you want, I’m just going to enjoy it while it lasts. 

That's OK, every time a player struggles there is immediate speculation about trading him.

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15 hours ago, Gurgi said:

When have the Orioles had to trade someone because of too much talent at the position?  Brian Roberts Jerry Hairston?  Its a great problem to have. 

To throw my 2 cents.  I say trade him.   However his speed is the asset that we cant replace so that might not be a great idea.  If the Orioles have a real shot at the post season keeping Mateo might be the wisest thing.  

Curt Schiling & Pete Harnish had no place in our MLB rotation.  

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I was giving a hypothetical illustration, not talking specifically about the O’s.  But do you think the O’s will have five starters who all exceed 2 WAR?  Last year, only Kremer did per rWAR, and nobody did per fWAR.   So far this year, only Wells and Gibson are on pace for 2+ WAR (Grayson is close per fWAR, but not per rWAR).   Sure there is reason to hope the starting pitching will improve as the year goes along, but it’s very unrealistic to think that a 4.5 rWAR pitcher wouldn’t significantly improve our rotation. 

Maybe not 5.  Means will be back in the 2nd half and will not get the number of starts to get to 2 WAR but he can be impactful in 10 to 15 starts.   Hall could earn his way to the O's rotation this year.  He may not get to 2 WAR if he only gets 100 innings in the majors but he too could be impactful.

Gibson could be traded because he is not a good 2nd half pitcher.  But his first half could be pretty good.

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It is amazing to me how 3-4 months ago, Mateo was considered "in the way" of every other up and coming prospect in the system and how he should be jettisoned (as in, given away to the highest bidder) to make room to gift the SS position to Henderson, and now a lot of posters have Mateo as a keeper unless we get major prospects in return.   I also think that they eye test says that Mateo is a better defender than Henderson as well.....not that we shouldn't have known that, but I do think that many on here didn't really appreciate the things Mateo WAS capable of.

To be fair, I'm not sure any other team was clamoring to deal for him, either, and had we traded him, we wouldn't have gotten much in return.  Personally, I wanted to see if and how he might develop further, so I'm kind of glad that he wasn't a hot commodity.

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21 hours ago, Frobby said:

1.  Extend Mateo and look to trade some of the others?

2.  Just play it year by year but keep Mateo on the roster while awaiting Holliday?

3.  Trade Mateo at what would be a really good peak value at the end of this year, and hand his job to Henderson or Ortiz for now?

Definitely not #1 at his age, and I'm skeptical of the return for #3. I would play it by ear and if he's really become Trea Turner, enjoy the 3 years at arbitration-level salaries.

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6 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think you are short changing the O's starters.

You said earlier in the thread that you like the potential of the current O's starters.  Do you think that potential is enough to carry the team deep into the post season?  If so, I like the optimism, but I don't think you have very much company in that belief.

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5 minutes ago, 24fps said:

You said earlier in the thread that you like the potential of the current O's starters.  Do you think that potential is enough to carry the team deep into the post season?  If so, I like the optimism, but I don't think you have very much company in that belief.

Just because I don't have much company does not mean I am wrong.

 Mike Yaz should be giving a chance; Holt is one of the O's best pitching  coaches  ever.   Irvin is not one of the O's top 5 starters.  I have been booed for them all.

Now I think Kremer could benefit for some time at AAA  to get his command fixed.   Nothing permanent.     Just until he shows he has his command back.   Bring Zimmerman up.

Overall I like the pitching staff.

DL Hall is not ready.  75 pitches to get through 3 innings is not what we are looking for no matter how many he strikes out.

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29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Just because I don't have much company does not mean I am wrong.

 Mike Yaz should be giving a chance; Holt is one of the O's best pitching  coaches  ever.   Irvin is not one of the O's top 5 starters.  I have been booed for them all.

Now I think Kremer could benefit for some time at AAA  to get his command fixed.   Nothing permanent.     Just until he shows he has his command back.   Bring Zimmerman up.

Overall I like the pitching staff.

DL Hall is not ready.  75 pitches to get through 3 innings is not what we are looking for no matter how many he strikes out.

Yes, Holt is a great pitching coach.  Imagine what he could do if he has some prime talent - Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, guys like that who've been batted around on here as logical targets in a Mateo trade.  That is unless your argument is that Holt is so good that he can succeed even without high-end pitching talent to work with.  Then I think you will find yourself in an even lonelier place - one where even Leo Mazzone won't talk to you.

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1 minute ago, 24fps said:

Yes, Holt is a great pitching coach.  Imagine what he could do if he has some prime talent - Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, guys like that who've been batted around on here as logical targets in a Mateo trade.  That is unless your argument is that Holt is so good that he can succeed even without high-end pitching talent to work with.  Then I think you will find yourself in an even lonelier place - one where even Leo Mazzone won't talk to you.

Look what he's done with Hall.

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