Ohtani Rental?

[foxfield]

I am as optimistic as anyone here…well maybe @wildcard, but I am also not blinded by the facts. Winning the AL East is no cakewalk for anyone and as good as this year has gone so far, every single team in the East is still capable of winning the East and or taking a wildcard slot. 
 

The good news is that we are in first place and control our destiny. The bad news is the team in last place is still very good. It has been awhile, but the Orioles now get to play from the top spot. The Hope obviously is that they hold onto it. 
 

But nothing is over. The only thing that is crystal clear is that all 5 of them are not going to make the playoffs. No matter how deserving. 

[LTO's]

28 minutes ago, accinfo said:

Bob Nightengale was on Haney's show today and said he spoke with the owner of the Angels just 2 days ago and he isn't going to trade Ohtani.  That they make $20 million on him in things like attendance, advertising, etc and they are still in a pennant race.  

Well now we know he's getting traded 

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, EddeeEddee said:

I'm guessing the teams probably most willing to overpay for Ohtani are the Rangers and the Dodgers.  But they are probably the two teams the Angels least want to trade him to -- one the all too familiar divisional rival and the other the storied in-town rival the Angels will always play second fiddle to.  

But the Rangers really make sense because at least they aren't the Dodgers -- or the Astros.  And the Rangers have the prospects to overpay and have more of an all-in mentality this season than any of the other teams (again, except maybe the Dodgers).  The risk is that Ohtani decides he likes playing for the Rangers and signs a long term contract with them -- especially if they go on to the WS with Ohtani -- battling the Angels for the AL West for years to come.  

I think the O's, Rays, Braves and even the Red Sox are probably too conservative to pull off a trade for him.  The Reds may be tempted but perhaps think he won't provide enough of a difference on his own.  The Blue Jays and Yankees most certainly want him but probably don't have the prospects to pull it off.  The dark horse teams I think are the Phillies and, of course, the crazy ass Padres.  

Now watch the Mariners, Brewers or Guardians pull it off.

Why not the Guardians? I can't think of a single team in playoff contention that needs Ohtani's bat more than Cleveland. And they have a ton of young pitching. 

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Well now we know he's getting traded 

Which means we're in for another 41 pages of this thread  

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Why not the Guardians? I can't think of a single team in playoff contention that needs Ohtani's bat more than Cleveland. And they have a ton of young pitching. 

Cleveland is pretty similar to the Rays, they don't really spend and they depend on their prospects. Unlike the Rays, or Orioles, they don't have a the type of farm where losing several top 10 guys isn't a huge deal. 

[EddeeEddee]

10 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Why not the Guardians? I can't think of a single team in playoff contention that needs Ohtani's bat more than Cleveland. And they have a ton of young pitching. 

For one thing I think Cleveland realizes they don't have enough offense to break through even if they added Ohtani.  It's a very risky move for a team that's both 2 games under .500 and a small market club.  If they were 5-10 games over .500 with another good bat or two already in the lineup then it would be a different story.  

[HakunaSakata]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Cleveland is pretty similar to the Rays, they don't really spend and they depend on their prospects. Unlike the Rays, or Orioles, they don't have a the type of farm where losing several top 10 guys isn't a huge deal. 

I think Ohtani could probably be had for one top prospect and other lesser prospects. I get what you're saying about them being protective of their prospect, but if the Angels called and offered Ohtani to me for r G.Williams or Bibee, a lower level prospect, and agreed to take on the bulk of J.Bell's salary I would be VERY tempted to say yes. For what it's worth, the BTV website lists both Bibee and Williams as having almost the same median value as Ohtani. 

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Listening to MLB radio this morning, Steve Phillips cited a report that the Angels do not want to send him to any "direct competitors" i.e. no Dodgers, no team in their division.

In that case, it would also mean they don't want to trade him to their nearest wildcard competitors either, being 4 games out. And they might be looking for players who can help their team sooner rather than later to along with the prospect to build their future around.

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, RVAOsFan said:

I can hear it now, O's fans in Camden Yards yelling out the "O" in Ohtani as his name is announced over the PA system coming up to the plate.... whoops wake up man get back to work.

I didn't even think of that. That would be fun!  I like the way you think.

[scbalt52]

Cowser/Kjerstad, Norby, Povich for Ohtani

 

Whichever one isn't traded between Cowser & Kjerstad is up. We're essentially the same team with Ohtani added for the push. Sucks to lose on a potential good outfielder but kind of logjammed anyway. The Angels might say that isn't enough still but it's rental, it's enough. If they hang on to him for more that's fine, they're just going to ride him to the end then. 

Not saying I think this should be done but the more I think on it I'd be fine with it. Think it increases our chances this year and doesn't hurt us much in this 5-year-ish window. Then you hope he likes it and try to sign him for gobs of money in the offseason. If he doesn't, we're fine. Might still be the #1 farm system.

[Billy F-Face3]

13 minutes ago, scbalt52 said:

Cowser/Kjerstad, Norby, Povich for Ohtani

 

Whichever one isn't traded between Cowser & Kjerstad is up. We're essentially the same team with Ohtani added for the push. Sucks to lose on a potential good outfielder but kind of logjammed anyway. The Angels might say that isn't enough still but it's rental, it's enough. If they hang on to him for more that's fine, they're just going to ride him to the end then. 

Not saying I think this should be done but the more I think on it I'd be fine with it. Think it increases our chances this year and doesn't hurt us much in this 5-year-ish window. Then you hope he likes it and try to sign him for gobs of money in the offseason. If he doesn't, we're fine. Might still be the #1 farm system.

This is along the lines I was thinking. We can't play everyone. Frankly I prefer to keep the power bat that Kjerstad has in the long run of things, and Cowser is a more highly regarded (#15) prospect around the league so he would commamd a better return anyway.

Only problem is that injuries to Ced and Hicks have thrown a wrench in this line of thinking. Which is probably another reason we have seen Elias take an approach to just collect a bunch of cheap AAAA players rather than go for the big fish difference maker. Even so, I like the outfield depth we have in AAA and AA even if we were to lose Cowser to add Ohtani.

I would also consider selling Armbruester instead Povich because we need lefty starters. And then supplement and sweeten on down the line from depth positions as needed.

And all of this is prefaced with the intention of trying to win Shohei over to the franchise and a serious effort to sign him after winning a Championship. Minimum AAV offer will have a be no less than $32 million for him to consider signing.

 

If I'm Elias, I'm asking Brandon Hyde to leverage his friendship with Ohtani's former manager in Joe Maddon and make a phone call to get some insight and some inside info about Shohei in the clubhouse... What he likes, what he prefers, what he dislikes, how he prepares? Etc.

I would also be thinking about how to integrate Shohei's trainer/translator into the clubhouse to go with Fujinami and his man. Ohtani has been with his translator/trainer since he was 18 years old.  He's important. And I'd ask Fujinami about his perspective with the idea of Ohtani being in the clubhouse just to see how everyone would get along as teammates.

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

This is along the lines I was thinking. We can't play everyone. Frankly I prefer to keep the power bat that Kjerstad has in the long run of things, and Cowser is a more highly regarded (#15) prospect around the league so he would commamd a better return anyway.

Only problem is that injuries to Ced and Hicks have thrown a wrench in this line of thinking. Which is probably another reason we have seen Elias take an approach to just collect a bunch of cheap AAAA players rather than go for the big fish difference maker. Even so, I like the outfield depth we have in AAA and AA even if we were to lose Cowser to add Ohtani.

I would also consider selling Armbruester instead Povich because we need lefty starters. And then supplement and sweeten on down the line from depth positions as needed.

And all of this is prefaced with the intention of trying to win Shohei over to the franchise and a serious effort to sign him after winning a Championship. Minimum AAV offer will have a be no less than $32 million for him to consider signing.

 

If I'm Elias, I'm asking Brandon Hyde to leverage his friendship with Ohtani's former manager in Joe Maddon and make a phone call to get some insight and some inside info about Shohei in the clubhouse... What he likes, what he prefers, what he dislikes, how he prepares? Etc.

I would also be thinking about how to integrate Shohei's trainer/translator into the clubhouse to go with Fujinami and his man. Ohtani has been with his translator/trainer since he was 18 years old.  He's important. And I'd ask Fujinami about his perspective with the idea of Ohtani being in the clubhouse just to see how everyone would get along as teammates.

We can play everyone once they trade the players they should trade (Santander, Mountcastle, Mateo, etc.) in the offseason. There's also no guarantee that all of those players succeed. GMs and scouts will tell you it's often safety in numbers with prospects (i.e., play the percentages). In a perfect world, Cowser would be in the OF and Kjerstad would be in the OF or at 1B when they break camp next season. 

The leveraging friendship / intergrating the trainer/translator seems quite a bit cart before the horse to me. I mean it's not like Ohtani has to sign off on a trade. And I've never seen a bad thing reported or written about him so I'm really not sure why you would need to vet his character. I don't think anyone in this thread has questioned whether or not Ohtani would add value as a player and leader in this thread. They've just questioned whether trading high end prospects for him makes sense (for this team). 

[Malike]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hundreds of millions?

Who the heck are you sending over?

A 55 ranked prospect is worth what, 42M?  Are you sending them five of them?

I mean we got 5 players for Machado in a walk year and he wasn't nearly on the level of Ohtani. Who are you sending over? If you guys don't think the pieces we can send them are valuable, why would they? Do you think you know something they don't?

[ORIOLE33]

I wouldn't give up neither of our top two prospects for a rental. If we have a long term deal in place, I'd definitely be willing to part with at least one of our top prospects and then some. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Malike said:

I mean we got 5 players for Machado in a walk year and he wasn't nearly on the level of Ohtani. Who are you sending over? If you guys don't think the pieces we can send them are valuable, why would they? Do you think you know something they don't?

Did the O's get even one level 55 prospect for Machado?  (at the time of the trade)