What made Gunnar the #1 prospect in baseball and where is that guy?

[Sports Guy]

I was thinking the Hudler homer.  And someone else hit it to where Rex did recently too.

[Bemorewins]

57 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

OPS now higher than Adley's, 4 years younger.  

Hope this lights a fire in Adley's belly! 

I think his fire is fine and so is he. Baseball is a game of streaks. Right now he is just a little colder and maybe somewhat fatigue from playing every game save 2. 

They both weren't #1 prospects in the game by accident.

[Teddy OBP]

12 minutes ago, hutchead said:

It's actually tied for the 6th longest according to this link:

https://www.theballparkguide.com/blog/2023/02/02/the-10-longest-home-runs-at-oriole-park-at-camden-yards-the-ballpark-guide/

(And this list only includes 2015 and later)

Wow. Correa’s ball was ridiculous - into the SRO behind the bullpen.

[Flash- bd]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think his fire is fine and so is he. Baseball is a game of streaks. Right now he is just a little colder and maybe somewhat fatigue from playing every game save 2. 

They both weren't #1 prospects in the game by accident.

Yeah, I know, like I always say, I've got Wieters trauma, and Adley's exit velocity / underlying numbers worry me.

But want to believe I am just letting Wieters trauma overcome me and that this is just a slump. 

Still, 4 years younger and a similar production level, you have to say Gunnar is likely to be the more valuable player. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Yeah, I know, like I always say, I've got Wieters trauma, and Adley's exit velocity / underlying numbers worry me.

But want to believe I am just letting Wieters trauma overcome me and that this is just a slump. 

Still, 4 years younger and a similar production level, you have to say Gunnar is likely to be the more valuable player. 

He's more likely to have the higher WAR total at the end of his career.

If you are looking at the six years of team control (which to me is the sensible route) I'd go with Adley.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Flash- bd said:

Yeah, I know, like I always say, I've got Wieters trauma, and Adley's exit velocity / underlying numbers worry me.

But want to believe I am just letting Wieters trauma overcome me and that this is just a slump. 

Still, 4 years younger and a similar production level, you have to say Gunnar is likely to be the more valuable player. 

I will choose to enjoy them BOTH. If Adley "only" ends up being a .400 on base with lower exit velo numbers and 15/22 home run a year power, I will take that out of my #2 hitter. Especially at C. We have Mullins and Gunnar and Santander (to a degree) to hit around him now. And we have Coswer, Kjerstad, and Holliday who are all projected to be top of the lineup to middle of the order hitters for the future. We are going to be an elite offense. We were built through the draft and through development to become one.

All I know about Adley is since he joined the team the Orioles have improved dramatically and been a winning outfit. You can call that a coincidence if you so wish, I don't. Adley is a winner!

[Flash- bd]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's more likely to have the higher WAR total at the end of his career.

If you are looking at the six years of team control (which to me is the sensible route) I'd go with Adley.

I would go with Gunnar on the six years of team control too (as the 4 years difference is more interesting I think we can agree in terms of what it signifies for the room for--rapid--growth / projection). 

But I hope I am wrong, and want Adley to be the star we all expected him to be. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

I would go with Gunnar on the six years of team control too (as the 4 years difference is more interesting I think we can agree in terms of what it signifies for the room for--rapid--growth / projection). 

But I hope I am wrong, and want Adley to be the star we all expected him to be. 

I'm expecting Adley's defense to rebound and be the main difference.

[Flash- bd]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I will choose to enjoy them BOTH. If Adley "only" ends up being a .400 on base with lower exit velo numbers and 15/22 home run a year power, I will take that out of my #2 hitter. Especially at C. We have Mullins and Gunnar and Santander (to a degree) to hit around him now. And we have Coswer, Kjerstad, and Holliday who are all projected to be top of the lineup to middle of the order hitters for the future. We are going to be an elite offense. We were built through the draft and through development to become one.

All I know about Adley is since he joined the team the Orioles have improved dramatically and been a winning outfit. You can call that a coincidence if you so wish, I don't. Adley is a winner!

 I definitely agree that Adley is a winner and I do think there is some causality there, and that it's not just pure coincidence, though how much is hard to measure. 

I'll be happy if Adley is a .800-.900 OPS hitter. I'll be content if he's a .800-.850 averaging more in the lower .800s. I'll be disappointed if he's a below .800 OPS guy. I know he's a winner and he's going to be a valuable player but of course, I want him to be a bit more than an above average, valuable player, I want him to be something closer to what we dreamed him to be. 

[Flash- bd]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm expecting Adley's defense to rebound and be the main difference.

I think Gunnar will be very valuable defensively too and I wonder if catcher's defensive value isn't exaggerated in both directions (ie I don't think Wieters was quite as valuable as WAR made him out to be in his best seasons mostly on defensive value, nor do I think Adley is quite as valuable defensively as WAR said he was last season nor quite as poor defensively as the metrics have him this season), I'm skeptical of the metrics there. 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Flash- bd

[Tony-OH]

17 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

I think Gunnar will be very valuable defensively too and I wonder if catcher's defensive value isn't exaggerated in both directions (ie I don't think Wieters was quite as valuable as WAR made him out to be in his best seasons mostly on defensive value, nor do I think Adley is quite as valuable defensively as WAR said he was last season nor quite as poor defensively as the metrics have him this season), I'm skeptical of the metrics there. 

Gunnar is going to be every good 3B at some point. He has all the tool and just needs consistency. He was never Machado defensively at SS in the minors so I'm surprised with his struggles at time this year. 

But he has all the tools and work ethic to get there. His defense has already come around from earlier in the year when I think he was taking his bat struggles to the field.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Gunnar is going to be every good 3B at some point. He has all the tool and just needs consistency. He was never Machado defensively at SS in the minors so I'm surprised with his struggles at time this year. 

But he has all the tools and work ethic to get there. His defense has already come around from earlier in the year when I think he was taking his bat struggles to the field.

And a lot of that was just bad throws but it’s not like he lacks for arm strength. Just had some lazy mechanics and likely, as you said, some mental hurdles.

[OriolesMagic83]

20 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

Yeah, I know, like I always say, I've got Wieters trauma, and Adley's exit velocity / underlying numbers worry me.

But want to believe I am just letting Wieters trauma overcome me and that this is just a slump. 

Still, 4 years younger and a similar production level, you have to say Gunnar is likely to be the more valuable player. 

Gunnar is likely to have better offensive numbers but I think overall Adley will be more valuable.  It's ridiculous that people think anything less than Ripken level career would be a failure.  I would be ecstatic if Gunnar has a Decinces type career. 

[Roy Firestone]

9 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Gunnar is likely to have better offensive numbers but I think overall Adley will be more valuable.  It's ridiculous that people think anything less than Ripken level career would be a failure.  I would be ecstatic if Gunnar has a Decinces type career. 

DeCinces (who is my friend) never had Gunnar's ability...never had that kind of power. Doug never had 30 HR or 100 RBI for us...and I think, barring injury Gunnar will do it regularly if he learns to hit or ignore the slider in the dirt...

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

DeCinces (who is my friend) never had Gunnar's ability...never had that kind of power. Doug never had 30 HR or 100 RBI for us...and I think, barring injury Gunnar will do it regularly if he learns to hit or ignore the slider in the dirt...

If he learns to hit the slider in the dirt, they can reserve a place for his HOF plaque next to Vlad’s.