AL Rookie of the Year Watch

[Aristotelian]

Gunnar's hot June has gotten him back in the ROY race. Appears to be a three man race with good arguments for each player. 

Gunnar 1.6 WAR, .239/.343/.802, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 123 OPS+

Yoshida 1.2 WAR, .307/.377/.856, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 130 OPS+

Jung 2.2 WAR, .274/.327/.818, 15 HR, 44 RBI, 123 OPS+

Solid edge to Jung but Gunnar is in striking distance and lots of baseball to be played. Gunnar has the lowest AVG, but second OBP and HR. His 1.088 June pace would be the best single month of any of the three. Yoshida leads in all slash lines but is last of the three in WAR, probably due to being below average outfielder. Jung leads in HR, RBI, and WAR. Jung has slumped a bit in June whereas Gunnar has been gaining steam, but Gunnar's slow start may be too much to overcome. In a close race would voters give it to a 29 year old Japanese vet versus an actual competitive rookie? 

[Malike]

I feel like they use the counting stats more than the metrics. If Gunnar's line doesn't look a bit better he's likely not going to win, especially with the hype surrounding him this season. He's settling in and like you said the numbers are improving and if they keep trending up, he's got a real chance. The others need to slump a bit.

[Moose Milligan]

Yoshida will have the edge with the pretty slash line if he keeps it up. Voters haven’t historically cared about Japanese imports winning the award. 
 

Then again, it a WAR race. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yoshida will have the edge with the pretty slash line if he keeps it up. Voters haven’t historically cared about Japanese imports winning the award. 
 

Then again, it a WAR race. 

He's a LF/DH the offensive bar for him should be higher.

[Malike]

Yoshida is also a few weeks away from being a 30-year-old "rookie" with 7 years of pro ball in Japan under his belt.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

I feel like they use the counting stats more than the metrics. If Gunnar's line doesn't look a bit better he's likely not going to win, especially with the hype surrounding him this season. He's settling in and like you said the numbers are improving and if they keep trending up, he's got a real chance. The others need to slump a bit.

I think the counting stats have decreased in importance recently.  Mountcastle led all rookies in HR and i believe RBI and was nowhere near winning.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think the counting stats have decreased in importance recently.  Mountcastle led all rookies in HR and i believe RBI and was nowhere near winning.

This is true.

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's a LF/DH the offensive bar for him should be higher.

Agreed, whether "should" translates to "will" is another question. I feel like if Gunnar starts playing more SS and has some nice web gems down the stretch that could help his chances even if his slash lines come up short. 

[NedFromYork]

I have always thought there should be two awards, a Rookie of the Year and a Newcomer of the Year.

[GuidoSarducci]

20 hours ago, NedFromYork said:

I have always thought there should be two awards, a Rookie of the Year and a Newcomer of the Year.

Whats the criteria for the two?

Is there going to be a worthy "Newcomer of the Year" every year?

[MurphDogg]

I don't think Yoshida is the third person in the race, he might not even be fourth.

Hunter Brown is probably #3 for me right now, 1.5 rWAR and 1.8 fWAR, 6-4 with a 3.62 ERA, 3.22 k/bb ratio, 87 innings over 15 starts.

Yennier Cano is still ahead of Yoshia for me as well, despite his reason troubles. 2.4 rWAR and 1.4 fWAR outpaces Yoshida.

Edited July 21, 2023 by MurphDogg

[Fiver6565]

Jung is a finalist for all star starter if I'm not mistaken.  I know that is a vote based thing and fans, etc. but if he starts the All Star game, that will be a big leg up for him perception wise.  He's the frontrunner as of now but that could of course change.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Fiver6565 said:

Jung is a finalist for all star starter if I'm not mistaken.  I know that is a vote based thing and fans, etc. but if he starts the All Star game, that will be a big leg up for him perception wise.  He's the frontrunner as of now but that could of course change.

He's also playing for a great team.

I think Gunnar has a leg up as being the odds on favorite to start the season.  I don't know if Jung was on anyone's radar before the season started.

[HandsomeQuack]

FWIW, the book I'm looking at currently has Jung +150, Yoshida +250, Gunnar +450, Brown +1400. If I had to guess the eventual winner, I would still pick Jung, but the last month for him (bad) and Gunnar (good) has opened things back up. I don't know how Yoshida is still that high, there honestly might be a little value on Gunnar.

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, Fiver6565 said:

Jung is a finalist for all star starter if I'm not mistaken.  I know that is a vote based thing and fans, etc. but if he starts the All Star game, that will be a big leg up for him perception wise.  He's the frontrunner as of now but that could of course change.

Jung has a .645 OPS in the month of June and his k/bb ratio for the season is over 4.

I would be a little surprised if Jung can hang with Gunnar the rest of the season, Gunnar has already passed him in OPS.

Should be a fun race down the stretch!