If the Orioles DFA’d Mateo…

[e16bball]

7 minutes ago, owknows said:

2 Bags of balls.. nothing less

Pretty weird concept. You almost never see fans drastically undervalue their team’s players, but that’s where things are with Mateo, it seems. We all get it, people would rather see Ortiz or Westburg (or can’t wait to see Jackson Holliday). 

But Mateo is 4th on the team in both rWAR and fWAR since the start of 2022. He’s 12th among MLB SS in rWAR and 16th in fWAR during that span. There are several teams for whom he would instantly be the everyday SS — and that’s even factoring in all the dramatic ups and downs, without needing some team to dream on the remaining upside (the “April” version of Mateo). 

I’m not saying you get anything huge back for him, but Eduardo Escobar is old, expensive, hasn’t hit much this year, and can’t play SS — and he just brought back two top 20 prospects from LAA, including one guy who looks genuinely interesting. There’s no way you couldn’t at least get something similar for Mateo. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, e16bball said:

Pretty weird concept. You almost never see fans drastically undervalue their team’s players, but that’s where things are with Mateo, it seems. We all get it, people would rather see Ortiz or Westburg (or can’t wait to see Jackson Holliday). 

But Mateo is 4th on the team in both rWAR and fWAR since the start of 2022. He’s 12th among MLB SS in rWAR and 16th in fWAR during that span. There are several teams for whom he would instantly be the everyday SS — and that’s even factoring in all the dramatic ups and downs, without needing some team to dream on the remaining upside (the “April” version of Mateo). 

I’m not saying you get anything huge back for him, but Eduardo Escobar is old, expensive, hasn’t hit much this year, and can’t play SS — and he just brought back two top 20 prospects from LAA, including one guy who looks genuinely interesting. There’s no way you couldn’t at least get something similar for Mateo. 

What MLB teams are going to give a starting position to a guy that has a 69 OPS+ (78 career)

Andrelton Simmons, by comparison, had a career OPS+ of 87.

How many MLB starters hit that poorly?

[crawjo]

What a bad premise for a poll. There is a 0.0 percent chance the Orioles DFA a guy who is a plus defending shortstop with 21 steals. Absolutely no chance. None. Zero. What an absurd thing to even contemplate. 

[Hank Scorpio]

He’s not just a defense first shortstop. He’s a defense ONLY shortstop.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, crawjo said:

What a bad premise for a poll. There is a 0.0 percent chance the Orioles DFA a guy who is a plus defending shortstop with 21 steals. Absolutely no chance. None. Zero. What an absurd thing to even contemplate. 

Stranger things have happened.  I agree it’s not that likely, but the guy has literally had no value for almost two months.  He’s got a .367 OPS since May 1, and no amount of defense can make up for that.  The only reason NOT to DFA him is that (1) you think he’ll snap out of it, or (2) you think he could being value in a trade.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

He’s not just a defense first shortstop. He’s a defense ONLY shortstop.

And he's not Simmons.

[RVAOsFan]

I would not be on board with that move at all. He is the exact kind of player contenders add at the trade deadline for depth speed / defense. We are a contender, why would we let this kind of guy go? 
 

Now do this thread over with Frazier. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

He’s not just a defense first shortstop. He’s a defense ONLY shortstop.

Some people seem not to realize that there’s a difference between a .650 OPS and a .350 OPS.   At .650, a great defensive SS can have some value.  At .350, he can’t.  And that’s what Mateo has done for two months.  I feel like he should be able to do better than this, but it’s been an awfully long stretch.  

[e16bball]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What MLB teams are going to give a starting position to a guy that has a 69 OPS+ (78 career)

Not sure what qualifies as a “starter” in your book, but there are 18 guys in MLB with at least 175 PAs and an OPS+ of 70 or lower. They represent the following teams:

MIA

NYY

CHW (x2)

MIL

HOU (x2)

OAK (x2)

DET (x3)

LAA

KCR

WAS

ARI

BAL

BOS

To my eye, very few of those players are also elite defensively at SS with 80 speed. Without a deeper dive, I can’t opine as to how many of them are also presently underperforming their xWOBA by 35 points or so.

[Hank Scorpio]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Some people seem not to realize that there’s a difference between a .650 OPS and a .350 OPS.   At .650, a great defensive SS can have some value.  At .350, he can’t.  And that’s what Mateo has done for two months.  I feel like he should be able to do better than this, but it’s been an awfully long stretch.  

Agree… but they’re not going to DFA him.

He is no spring chicken either, per se. I think as a baseball player he is what he is. Excellent defensively and terrible offensively. And fast as greased lightning, but that won’t last forever.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Agree… but they’re not going to DFA him.

He is no spring chicken either, per se. I think as a baseball player he is what he is. Excellent defensively and terrible offensively. And fast as greased lightning, but that won’t last forever.

He’s one of the most confusing players I’ve ever watched.  Plenty of guys can’t hit.  But you rarely if ever see one of those guys put up a 1.062 OPS for a month, or an .887 OPS for two months as he did last year.  He’s the most Jeckyll and Hyde guy I’ve ever seen.  

[Hank Scorpio]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

He’s one of the most confusing players I’ve ever watched.  Plenty of guys can’t hit.  But you rarely if ever see one of those guys put up a 1.062 OPS for a month, or an .887 OPS for two months as he did last year.  He’s the most Jeckyll and Hyde guy I’ve ever seen.  

It is baffling, for sure. He was laying off breaking pitches and driving strikes. It’s tough to have THAT big of a delta in your OPS month over month. He is a very valuable bench guy, they should def keep him over Frazier… but neither of them are in danger I wouldn’t think.

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Mateo has a good amount of value as a utility player, especially for a playoff team.  Plays like today where Mateo scored on a ball a lot of players would have barely got to 3rd.  Those plays aren't common in the regular season but are a lot more common in the postseason, where the value of scoring 1 run is magnified.

UTi players tend to play multiple positions.

[forphase1]

I went with I wouldn't care either way.   I think he still has value as a backup/defensive replacement/pinch runner.  But my fear of keeping him on the team is the desire by whomever makes the lineup to keep starting him.   I'd rather us DFA him than to keep starting him 4+ times a week.  Best options are to trade him or make him seriously a part time player,  but I doubt the team will do that,  though I hope they do. 

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, crawjo said:

What a bad premise for a poll. There is a 0.0 percent chance the Orioles DFA a guy who is a plus defending shortstop with 21 steals. Absolutely no chance. None. Zero. What an absurd thing to even contemplate. 

As i said, it’s a hypothetical but he’s basically a below replacement player over the last month or 2.

Ortiz can be as valuable with the glove.

So, you can argue  that keeping solely to pinch run is a waste of a roster spot.

Now, I tend to agree that we should trade him but obviously, the Orioles wouldn’t DFA him without trying to trade him first and if no one wants him and they don’t need/want him on the roster, DFA is the way they would need to go.