Snell/Hader package

[Malike]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not elite in terms of IP though, which was his point.

This was exactly my point, not sure how it was so easily missed.

The argument was we don't have pitchers who can pitch late in games consistently enough and we can't win if we don't have guys who can pitch 6+ innings in each start consistently in the playoffs. The data shows that most teams have a really fast hook in the playoffs and a bullpen who can shut guys down.

[Malike]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

 

37IP 12 ER is a 2.92 ERA. That's not exactly mediocre like you're trying to make it look, especially against another elite team and under that pressure. 

Yeah, you missed the point.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

This was exactly my point, not sure how it was so easily missed.

The argument was we don't have pitchers who can pitch late in games consistently enough and we can't win if we don't have guys who can pitch 6+ innings in each start consistently in the playoffs. The data shows that most teams have a really fast hook in the playoffs and a bullpen who can shut guys down.

Even the pitchers who show they can go deep in games during the reg season get quick hooks. 
 

The Astros were a little different in 2022 iirc but generally speaking, you hope for 15-18 outs from your starter and he’s out of there.

[HakunaSakata]

44 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

By that same standard,  Wells has .193 babip, SIERA of 3.74, xFIP of 4.10 and FIP of 4.55. Obviously due to inducing weak contact he's going to be a consistent FIP/xFIP beater, but no one maintains a .193 babip and almost no one maintains an 85.1 LOB%.

Completely agree and I wasn't implying that we still didn't need to bolster our starting pitching. Just that the situation wasn't quite as dire as it was being made out to be. We don't need to make a blockbuster trade, we just need to add another solid / dependable arm (preferably a LHP). The only exception (for me) would be if we have an opportunity to get a youngish arm that we believe in under team control for a number of years.

[bluedog]

On 6/27/2023 at 11:56 AM, HandsomeQuack said:

Bieber's K rate has gone from 33% to 25% to 18% over three seasons. That is really, really bad for a guy in his 20s. E-Rod has had a very good season but was very average the last two years. All the Miami guys are under team control for a number of seasons, so I doubt they are going to part with any of them.

All that is to say that outside of Ohtani, the market is going to be made of Snells, Giolitos, etc., as well as the guys listed above, and the team will have to work within that. There aren't going to be any TOR arms available, so they will be well served to kick the tires on the 2s and 3s that do become available.

You know, I am not certain that any starter that will actually be available (I don't think Ohtani will be) represents a big enough upgrade that I'd want to trade any of our "A" prospects. (For me, that's Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, ERod, Ortiz, Hall and Norby). If we can get Snell for lesser prospects, great (I doubt we can), but otherwise I am fine going to war with what we have over bringing in more "average" starters, especially if they are rentals.

I feel like a more likely option is Elias swapping high quality prospects - a major league ready positional player for a major league ready starting pitcher. What pitching prospects are out there that we'd immediately slot in a the major league level which might be attainable?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, bluedog said:

You know, I am not certain that any starter that will actually be available (I don't think Ohtani will be) represents a big enough upgrade that I'd want to trade any of our "A" prospects. (For me, that's Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, ERod, Ortiz, Hall and Norby). If we can get Snell for lesser prospects, great (I doubt we can), but otherwise I am fine going to war with what we have over bringing in more "average" starters, especially if they are rentals.

I feel like a more likely option is Elias swapping high quality prospects - a major league ready positional player for a major league ready starting pitcher. What pitching prospects are out there that we'd immediately slot in a the major league level which might be attainable?

I assume you forgot to list Holliday with the A prospects?

[bluedog]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I assume you forgot to list Holliday with the A prospects?

Holliday is S tier / Omega level. He doesn't belong on any "A" prospect list

Seriously though, I assume Holliday is untouchable.

I would enjoy hearing your opinion on what pitching prospects you'd think would be available and immediately help our rotation.

Edited June 28, 2023 by bluedog

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Holliday is S tier / Omega level. He doesn't belong on any "A" prospect list

Seriously though, I assume Holliday is untouchable.

I would enjoy hearing your opinion on what pitching prospects you'd think would be available and immediately help our rotation.

I’m not sure what pitching prospects but I would target pitching rich teams like Cleveland and Miami.

Max Mayer and Jake Eder are 2 potential guys.

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, bluedog said:

You know, I am not certain that any starter that will actually be available (I don't think Ohtani will be) represents a big enough upgrade that I'd want to trade any of our "A" prospects. (For me, that's Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, ERod, Ortiz, Hall and Norby). If we can get Snell for lesser prospects, great (I doubt we can), but otherwise I am fine going to war with what we have over bringing in more "average" starters, especially if they are rentals.

I feel like a more likely option is Elias swapping high quality prospects - a major league ready positional player for a major league ready starting pitcher. What pitching prospects are out there that we'd immediately slot in a the major league level which might be attainable?

I agree with some of this. IF and that’s a very big IF, no difference making starters are available then I don’t want us to do something just for the sake of it.

But I don’t believe that this will be the case. IMO if Eduardo Rodriguez returns to the mound by the deadline (which he should he’s making his first rehab start tomorrow) AND shows anywhere close to the form that he had this season pre-injury, if I’m the O’s I am seriously considering acquiring him. He is an upgrade over anything that we have (he was pitching at a Cy Young level (before the injury) and he is a LHP with post season experience. 

There are 2 things that I disagree with strongly about this post however.

1) Hall is barely even a prospect at this point. He’s off most top 100 list now, has NEVER dominated AAA, has lost velo this year, cannot go deep into games to save his life, and will be 25 soon. I seriously doubt that you can get much of anything for him. He would have to almost be like a throw-in as part of a package with much better pieces going to get anything ace of value.

2) I think you may be reading the market wrong from this perspective. The most valuable asset in the game is young, controllable starting pitching because it cost so much to acquire valuable assets otherwise. I can’t see ANY team being willing to trade their young top pitching prospects. Not the Marlins, Dodgers, Guardians, Rays, NONE. They would be willing to deal a player whose FA clock has already started ticking than to deal you a Eury Perez, an Andrew Abbott, a Taj Bradley or a Gavin Williams. Those guys are worth their weight in gold because they are not that many of them.

We have seen from our own pitching prospects (or the lack their of) that starting pitching is not easy to develop, especially not elite pitching.

[bluedog]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure what pitching prospects but I would target pitching rich teams like Cleveland and Miami.

Max Mayer and Jake Eder are 2 potential guys.

Looks like Cleveland has two near major league ready Top 100 prospects (Espino and Gavin Williams - who's already up) and 6 solid starters (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Logan Allen and Bibee). They desperately need hitting, so it looks like there could be a fit between the O's and the Guards. Good one.

[bluedog]

28 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

2) I think you may be reading the market wrong from this perspective. The most valuable asset in the game is young, controllable starting pitching because it cost so much to acquire valuable assets otherwise. I can’t see ANY team being willing to trade their young top pitching prospects. Not the Marlins, Dodgers, Guardians, Rays, NONE. They would be willing to deal a player whose FA clock has already started ticking than to deal you a Eury Perez, an Andrew Abbott, a Taj Bradley or a Gavin Williams. Those guys are worth their weight in gold because they are not that many of them.

We have seen from our own pitching prospects (or the lack their of) that starting pitching is not easy to develop, especially not elite pitching.

The Guardians have a huge need for hitting. I don't know how they trade for hitting upgrades without moving some of their pitchers (who wants to trade a quality hitter to the guardians for one of their bad hitters?)

I agree that pitchers are more valuable than hitters, but that doesn't mean you can't trade for young pitchers - they just cost more.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, bluedog said:

The Guardians have a huge need for hitting. I don't know how they trade for hitting upgrades without moving some of their pitchers (who wants to trade a quality hitter to the guardians for one of their bad hitters?)

I agree that pitchers are more valuable than hitters, but that doesn't mean you can't trade for young pitchers - they just cost more.

They would trade Bieber. They are not trading Gavin Williams.

[HakunaSakata]

5 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Looks like Cleveland has two near major league ready Top 100 prospects (Espino and Gavin Williams - who's already up) and 6 solid starters (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Logan Allen and Bibee). They desperately need hitting, so it looks like there could be a fit between the O's and the Guards. Good one.

Espino is out for AWHILE and McKenzie might be too (TBD). Yes they need hitting, I can't imagine them trading Bibee, Allen or Williams.

[bluedog]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Espino is out for AWHILE and McKenzie might be too (TBD). Yes they need hitting, I can't imagine them trading Bibee, Allen or Williams.

Quantrill? He is struggling this year, but was 23 and 8 with a ~3.00 ERA / 1.20 WHIP the prior two years...

[bluedog]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

They would trade Bieber. They are not trading Gavin Williams.

Yeah I am not suggesting Williams, but I am saying they have too many arms (injuries not withstanding) to use them all once healthy.

I don't really want Bieber, but Civale or Quantrill?