Specific Trade Ideas

[CaptainRedbeard]

Two trade ideas which won’t happen for a variety of reasons, but operating under the assumptions that the (1) the Padres will be willing to move impending FA to reshape their current 2023 team (without throwing in the towel this year) and improve their 2024 team, and (2) the Cardinals are willing to move Goldschmidt but otherwise focused on their 2024 roster. In short, both teams are more focused on getting back controllable MLB players than exclusively prospect capital. Unlikely but there is some logic to it for both teams, as neither is looking to rebuild and definitely envision themselves as buyers this offseason / contenders in 2024.

(1) Snell and Hader for Santander, Irvin and prospects outside the top 100

The Padres are very weak at DH/1B and know that Snell and Hader are headed for FA this offseason, while Santander is under control next year. Irvin plugs the hole in the rotation vacated by Snell as a cheap, controllable back-end SP that profiles well as a flyball pitcher in their stadium, providing some payroll flexibility for pursuing FA this offseason. It weakens their 2023 roster overall, but doesn’t gut it if they are able to snag a WC spot. Depends on how much they like Santander and how much Irvin has rebuilt his value in recent weeks, and whether they’d rather rebuild the farm vs. get Santander for the rest of this year / next year.

(2) Goldschmidt, Montgomery, Hicks for Kremer, Mountcastle and prospects outside top 100

Kremer pitching well recently makes this more of a possibility as the centerpiece from the Cards’ perspective as they desperately need controllable SP. It all hinges on whether they see any value in Mountcastle, who is now healthy and still has great Statcast batted ball data, and willingness to part with Goldschmidt, which has been much discussed. This would fill holes for them and clear salary to add FA SP this offseason, and there are plenty available. Kremer and Mountcastle both probably need to finish July strong for this to be at all realistic. 

FWIW, if you like the baseball trade simulator, both of these clear without adding any prospects from the Orioles side. I don’t think that’s accurate, but I do think the years of control on the Orioles’ MLB players make this realistic enough that they wouldn’t require any top 100 prospects that we are loathe to part with. 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[Billy F-Face3]

Anthony Santander is the every day catalyst for our ability to score runs. Blake Snell is part time pitcher with a ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP of 1.68 in the playoffs from last season, and he only plays 5 innings once every week. NEXT.

[webbrick2010]

Santander is not going to be traded, jeez is anyone even watching the team actually play games?

[bpilktree67]

13 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Santander is not going to be traded, jeez is anyone even watching the team actually play games?

He will but most likely not until this off season.  They won't pay an an outfielder/ first baseman around 12 million next season and then let him walk the following off season.  

[RVAOsFan]

Don't we usually have a "Hot Stove" thread up around this time of year or is it still too early? A catch all for who is being traded and what team is talking to who etc..

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Two trade ideas which won’t happen for a variety of reasons, but operating under the assumptions that the (1) the Padres will be willing to move impending FA to reshape their current 2023 team (without throwing in the towel this year) and improve their 2024 team, and (2) the Cardinals are willing to move Goldschmidt but otherwise focused on their 2024 roster. In short, both teams are more focused on getting back controllable MLB players than exclusively prospect capital. Unlikely but there is some logic to it for both teams, as neither is looking to rebuild and definitely envision themselves as buyers this offseason / contenders in 2024.

(1) Snell and Hader for Santander, Irvin and prospects outside the top 100

The Padres are very weak at DH/1B and know that Snell and Hader are headed for FA this offseason, while Santander is under control next year. Irvin plugs the hole in the rotation vacated by Snell as a cheap, controllable back-end SP that profiles well as a flyball pitcher in their stadium, providing some payroll flexibility for pursuing FA this offseason. It weakens their 2023 roster overall, but doesn’t gut it if they are able to snag a WC spot. Depends on how much they like Santander and how much Irvin has rebuilt his value in recent weeks, and whether they’d rather rebuild the farm vs. get Santander for the rest of this year / next year.

(2) Goldschmidt, Montgomery, Hicks for Kremer, Mountcastle and prospects outside top 100

Kremer pitching well recently makes this more of a possibility as the centerpiece from the Cards’ perspective as they desperately need controllable SP. It all hinges on whether they see any value in Mountcastle, who is now healthy and still has great Statcast batted ball data, and willingness to part with Goldschmidt, which has been much discussed. This would fill holes for them and clear salary to add FA SP this offseason, and there are plenty available. Kremer and Mountcastle both probably need to finish July strong for this to be at all realistic. 

FWIW, if you like the baseball trade simulator, both of these clear without adding any prospects from the Orioles side. I don’t think that’s accurate, but I do think the years of control on the Orioles’ MLB players make this realistic enough that they wouldn’t require any top 100 prospects that we are loathe to part with. 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

The reason these deals don’t happen is because you’re not getting any of these guys without giving up a couple legit prospects. Trying to deal quantity over quality is not going to work. And nobody wants Ryan Mountcastle.

[FlipTheBird]

57 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Anthony Santander is the every day catalyst for our ability to score runs. Blake Snell is part time pitcher with a ERA of 4.61 and a WHIP of 1.68 in the playoffs from last season, and he only plays 5 innings once every week. NEXT.

While I also do not think Santander will be traded in season, I do not give a rat’s rear end about Blake Snell’s 2022 playoff numbers, at least in terms of evaluating him as a potential addition.

[Three Run Homer]

On 7/15/2023 at 11:02 PM, Bemorewins said:

The Dodgers definitely have the ammo, but why would they give players for him for 2 months and the post season when they can sign him in the offseason?

 

If the Dodgers wait until the offseason AND if the Angels don't trade him, they would have to give up a draft pick to sign him.   And Ohtani would obviously increase their chances of winning a World Series this season.  I guarantee you that none of the top teams have the mindset of "why bother, the Braves are unbeatable this season".  

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

While I also do not think Santander will be traded in season, I do not give a rat’s rear end about Blake Snell’s 2022 playoff numbers, at least in terms of evaluating him as a potential addition.

If the whole idea behind trading for a pitcher is to improve our chances to win in the playoffs, then wouldn't that pitcher's results in recent playoffs matter? Or no?

[FlipTheBird]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

If the whole idea behind trading for a pitcher is to improve our chances to win in the playoffs, then wouldn't that pitcher's results in recent playoffs matter? Or no?

It was 13.1 innings, man. That’s too small to even be considered a SSS.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, johnrambo said:

Lmao. If the Angles offered an Ohtani Rental for Ortiz and Norby you would be a fool to turn that down. 

Your dreaming….they will want 4-5 guys including some blue chip guys.

[Aristotelian]

40 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

He will but most likely not until this off season.  They won't pay an an outfielder/ first baseman around 12 million next season and then let him walk the following off season.  

They paid Frazier $8m. They have plenty of money to spend if they thought Santander was worth it. If they trade him it should be for the return, not for the money. They can also give him QO and you know Elias covets draft picks so any trade is going to have to be good.

[Billy F-Face3]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

They paid Frazier $8m. They have plenty of money to spend if they thought Santander was worth it. If they trade him it should be for the return, not for the money. They can also give him QO and you know Elias covets draft picks so any trade is going to have to be good.

Let's also point out the fact that ticket prices at Camden Yards have just skyrocketed in recent weeks. They're charging for tickets in the front 10 rows of prices exceeding hundreds of dollars, and in some cases $400.

When I went to my first game in Camden Yards, we got the 2nd row behind home plate for $30 a ticket and that was when the Yankees were in town in late May and the stadium was packed full. Now a days, that's unheard of.

I don't know if their strategy is working, but you would think if they're able to sell tickets at what they cost now, then they should be making more than enough money to be able to pay for the best players in the near future.

I just fear that many fans are getting priced out of going to games and won't be there cheering on the team.

[Bemorewins]

26 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

If the Dodgers wait until the offseason AND if the Angels don't trade him, they would have to give up a draft pick to sign him.   And Ohtani would obviously increase their chances of winning a World Series this season.  I guarantee you that none of the top teams have the mindset of "why bother, the Braves are unbeatable this season".  

Even with Ohtani, the Dodgers would not be the favorite to beat them in October. The Dodgers VERY MUCH value their prospects and are not in a win it now at all cost mode. 

Would they rather give up a draft pick or 2/3/4 of their top 100 prospects? Which is more valuable given where they draft?

They are likely to be an even stronger/better team next year by adding their top prospects WITH Ohtani. No?

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Let's also point out the fact that ticket prices at Camden Yards have just skyrocketed in recent weeks. They're charging for tickets in the front 10 rows of prices exceeding hundreds of dollars, and in some cases $400.

When I went to my first game in Camden Yards, we got the 2nd row behind home plate for $30 a ticket and that was when the Yankees were in town in late May and the stadium was packed full. Now a days, that's unheard of.

I don't know if their strategy is working, but you would think if they're able to sell tickets at what they cost now, then they should be making more than enough money to be able to pay for the best players in the near future.

I just fear that many fans are getting priced out of going to games and won't be there cheering on the team.

This is true. I am going to the game tonight. When I brought the tix originally I got them for something like30/40% off with the special the Orioles were running. I then realized I need more tix for the group I am going with and went back to buy a few more, the price had more than doubled. That same ticket that I originally paid $23 for was now $50. 

I guess supply and demand.