MVP consideration for Felix

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Both versions of WAR (1) like strikeouts better than groundouts, and (2) don’t care about blown saves.  

Agree with both statements, except that I don’t think rWAR cares about K vs. GB. They just care about RA vs. xRA.

But as to (1), I like strikeouts better than groundouts too.

And as to (2), I think in some ways, saves are a bit like RBIs, because a lot comes down to sequencing. Give up that solo HR when you’re up 3, doesn’t matter, save isn’t blown. Give it up in a one run game, you failed.

For example, Britton was pretty bad in an early season game against BOS in 2016: leadoff homer to Betts, single to Pedroia, wild pitch, BB to Bogaerts. Then gets a DP out of Ortiz and a K to get out of it. Good thing he had a 3-run lead, and good thing those results came in that order. Is that effort (which earned him a SV) a better performance than the one where Felix had to eat a BS on the McKenna/Duvall game in a similar early season tilt at Fenway?

Is it a talent to time your mistakes well? I know some people who know a lot (Jim Palmer, for one) seem to think that there is a specific knack or strategy for that type of thing. Maybe there is.

Anyway, I just found it interesting that Felix is on such a remarkable pace. Just hopeful that he’ll keep it up.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, e16bball said:

Agree with both statements, except that I don’t think rWAR cares about K vs. GB. They just care about RA vs. xRA.

But as to (1), I like strikeouts better than groundouts too.

And as to (2), I think in some ways, saves are a bit like RBIs, because a lot comes down to sequencing. Give up that solo HR when you’re up 3, doesn’t matter, save isn’t blown. Give it up in a one run game, you failed.

For example, Britton was pretty bad in an early season game against BOS in 2016: leadoff homer to Betts, single to Pedroia, wild pitch, BB to Bogaerts. Then gets a DP out of Ortiz and a K to get out of it. Good thing he had a 3-run lead, and good thing those results came in that order. Is that effort (which earned him a SV) a better performance than the one where Felix had to eat a BS on the McKenna/Duvall game in a similar early season tilt at Fenway?

Is it a talent to time your mistakes well? I know some people who know a lot (Jim Palmer, for one) seem to think that there is a specific knack or strategy for that type of thing. Maybe there is.

Anyway, I just found it interesting that Felix is on such a remarkable pace. Just hopeful that he’ll keep it up.

I think whether it’s a talent to time your mistakes well is irrelevant when it comes to something like MVP.   A pitcher who is perfect in save situations is more valuable than a pitcher who blows 5 saves.   You want to discuss who was more dominant, that’s a different discussion.