Orioles related trade rumors and speculation leading up to the deadline

[Alasdaire]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Not saying that I would necessarily make that deal. But question could be asked conversely: Can you fault Elias for saying yes and taking advantage of the opportunity right in front of him?

Fair question.

Honestly, yes. Cease doesn't step into this rotation and automatically shut things down. He is league average this year. So you're doing it for the stability he brings and his long-term value. But there are questions about him over the long term.

Most importantly, the O's only have one or two trades like this in them. And the capital it would cost to acquire a player like this now means you don't have that same capital available if a better opportunity presents itself this winter.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Gurgi said:

Whats the worst that can happen if we dont make a trade?  We are forced to go into next year with all our prospects?

We tailspin out of first place and fall out of the wild card race in a stunning collapse not seen since the 1964 Phillies, the Warehouse is egged because Elias didn't do anything and we head into 2024 with all of our prospects.

[Yardball85]

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

Speaking of saying something without saying something.

[Gurgi]

1 minute ago, Alasdaire said:

Fair question.

Honestly, yes. Cease doesn't step into this rotation and automatically shut things down. He is league average this year. So you're doing it for the stability he brings and his long-term value. But there are questions about him over the long term.

Most importantly, the O's only have one or two trades like this in them. And the capital it would cost to acquire a player like this now means you don't have that same capital available if a better opportunity presents itself this winter.

Also what happens if we let the prospects start succeeding at the MLB level?  I think they would then have even more value.  I dont see a lot of our guys getting too ripe and starting to rot.  

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That's the single most charitable take possible.  LOL.

BWAR has him under 1 WAR with 75% of the season played so not according to BWAR.

And since when has a win been worth 10 mil?

bWAR is the inferior WAR, as has been discussed here a lot.

A lot of his value is no doubt tied into his glove.

FG has him worth over 12M right now with a 1.5 WAR.  I said on pace for a 2+ WAR season and up to 20M. That’s not 10M per win. A win is around 8M or so.

Either way, he is worth his contract and isn’t having some awful year. 
 

Even last year, his OAA was on par with Mateo. He’s an elite defensive player.

[interloper]

Just now, ThisIsBirdland said:

Speaking of saying something without saying something.

LOL. How many times can these guys tweet the same thing? It's honestly incredible. 

[crawjo]

1 minute ago, Gurgi said:

Whats the worst that can happen if we dont make a trade?  We are forced to go into next year with all our prospects?

Yes, we continue to have the best farm system in baseball. National reporters who cover baseball will all say the Orioles should be aggressive. It is what they are paid to say and think. But Elias needs to be careful not to overpay. It would be different if the Orioles were a veteran team looking to make one more push. But this is the first year of their window, not the last. 

[Gurgi]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

We tailspin out of first place and fall out of the wild card race in a stunning collapse not seen since the 1964 Phillies, the Warehouse is egged because Elias didn't do anything and we head into 2024 with all of our prospects.

Yeah maybe.  I am willing to take that chance.  I just dont see us collapsing that much.  

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, Yardball85 said:

 

A+ insider info (as usual) from Heyman. 

[sevastras]

6 minutes ago, jrobb21613 said:

Ortiz, Norby and Basallo  should get it done for Cease

One good year and everyone loves Cease. Might as well be Ubaldo Jiménez if you ask me. One good year and league averageish the rest of the career. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Whats the worst that can happen if we dont make a trade?  We are forced to go into next year with all our prospects?

Orioles are built for the future and aren’t in a position to go for it now because their core of players are about to be free agents or washed up.

Elias isn’t going to make a desperate trade to chase a pennant this year. This isn’t the 2017 Orioles grasping at one last chance (and failing) to sneak into the playoffs. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[banks703]

25 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

I have always thought Cease makes the most sense.  My guess is that they swapped ideas on Verlander and when they realized the Mets' ask they figured they might as well spend those prospects on someone younger/cheaper.

This would be my preference. Cease makes almost too much sense unless they are foolishly sending pitching back to Chicago. You dip into your top 10 for Cease for sure. 

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

LOL. How many times can these guys tweet the same thing? It's honestly incredible. 

Heyman being Heyman. lol 

[dystopia]

Carlson doesn’t even fill a need, why the frick do we want him? I’m certainly not trading Wells or Povich for him. He’s not even that good.