Phillies series

[Just Regular]

We catch a break on paper as Wheeler-Nola fell the last 2 days.    Fangraphs Team Stats sees PHI 1st in pitching WAR, and 20th in hitting WAR...it is Aaron Nola's walk year.    WAA sees them low at 1B/3B/LF, but some guy named Harper recently played his first career 1B game, so they may not be able to use Mountcastle this year.    A third baseman, on the other hand...

MLB SP (30 IP minimum for Sanchez) Active roster k-bb rank:

(67) Kremer v. (50) C. Sanchez

(97) Gibson v. (94) Taijuan, a head to head for Gibson basically with the guy Dombrowski replaced him with keeping pushing coming off the 2022 NL championship.

(53) Bradish v. (82) Suarez

Like many of the NL wildcard contenders, they have had some bad runs recently to keep the Mets and Padres and .475 baseball on the fringes of a tournament berth.     For today, the NL East holds zero wildcards.

Both ERA and Stuff+ consider Bradish one of the best pitchers in the league, and we'll see if his breakout continues.    He and Grayson have opened up a big lead on the excitement to see what happens next this turn through the rotation scale.    Touching up McClanahan some, our Bats helped move the AL ERA lead up to 2.70.

[dystopia]

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I could see us laying an egg in this series after the intensity of the 4 games against the Rays. I'd be happy if we got 1. And Bautista and Cano are unavailable today which doesn't help.

[bpilktree]

You don’t like to go into a season looking to win just 1 out of 3 but I will take it this series.   We are coming off the biggest series of the season going 3-1 so possible let down for team.  Then you add in the bullpen situation with no Bautista, Cano, and Baumann probably for 2 of the 3.  

[Aristotelian]

Hope it's not a trap series. Phillies are a solid club. Might come down to the number of HR Schwaber hits. I like our chances if we can get to their bullpen tied or with the lead. 

[86this]

33 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I could see us laying an egg in this series after the intensity of the 4 games against the Rays. I'd be happy if we got 1. And Bautista and Cano are unavailable today which doesn't help.

Treat it like game 5 of the '83 World Series.  McGregor for the complete game!

[Baltimorecuse]

41 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I could see us laying an egg in this series after the intensity of the 4 games against the Rays. I'd be happy if we got 1. And Bautista and Cano are unavailable today which doesn't help.

I think the way Hyde mixes up the line up keeps everyone focused.  You never know what you'll get out of your starter, or see what their starter will do, until the game starts.  

I like our mo.

Edited July 24, 2023 by Baltimorecuse
grammer

[Billy F-Face3]

Gotta consider Bautista and Cano unavailable for this series if you care about their health for the duration of the series. They were already pitched too much before the Tampa Series and we piled on the workload anyway because of how important the head to head matchup was with Tampa. 

Baumann might be unavailable for game 1 after how many pitches he threw yesterday.

It helps having a guy like Irvin who can basically cover 6 or 7 innings if you need him, and save the rest of the bullpen.

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

Gotta consider Bautista and Cano unavailable for this series if you care about their health for the duration of the series. They were already pitched too much before the Tampa Series and we piled on the workload anyway because of how important the head to head matchup was with Tampa. 

Baumann might be unavailable for game 1 after how many pitches he threw yesterday.

It helps having a guy like Irvin who can basically cover 6 or 7 innings if you need him, and save the rest of the bullpen.

*duration of the season 

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Gotta consider Bautista and Cano unavailable for this series if you care about their health for the duration of the series. They were already pitched too much before the Tampa Series and we piled on the workload anyway because of how important the head to head matchup was with Tampa. 

Baumann might be unavailable for game 1 after how many pitches he threw yesterday.

It helps having a guy like Irvin who can basically cover 6 or 7 innings if you need him, and save the rest of the bullpen.

Would be a good day to have Kremer go 5, Irvin go 4

[dystopia]

21 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Gotta consider Bautista and Cano unavailable for this series if you care about their health for the duration of the series. They were already pitched too much before the Tampa Series and we piled on the workload anyway because of how important the head to head matchup was with Tampa. 

Baumann might be unavailable for game 1 after how many pitches he threw yesterday.

It helps having a guy like Irvin who can basically cover 6 or 7 innings if you need him, and save the rest of the bullpen.

 Bautista didn’t throw an obscene amount of pitches in his last 4 outings, if that means anything. Even the one where he went two innings he was quite efficient, only threw 15. 

[Frobby]

The Phillies are 28-14 since June 2, and not to be underestimated.  They swept the Rays a couple of weeks ago.  

Tonight’s starter Cristopher Sanchez has kind of come out nowhere, posting a 3.06 ERA in 7 starts after pitching to a 4.35 ERA in AAA.  He’s been super stingy with walks, giving out only 6 free passes in 35 innings after walking 29 in 49.2 innings in AAA.   My sense is that this is a guy we need to be patient with, driving up his pitch count and seeing if we can’t get some walks.  Sanchez hasn’t thrown more than 87 pitches in a game, so it would be nice to keep him to 5 innings or less.

Taijuan Walker is having a typical Taijuan Walker season, at 4.11 ERA, 105 ERA+. He’s pitched very well against the Orioles in his career, 2.45 ERA in 8 starts, but he last faced them in 2021 so there’s a lot of players in our lineup who weren’t on those teams.  Walker had a slow start this year, then a very dominant June, but has taken a step back in July, yielding 10 ER in 18 IP.

Ranger Suarez wax activated mid-May and has been similar to Walker, pitching to a 4.07 ERA, 106 ERA+ but having been a bit worse in July, allowing 15 ER in 22 IP over 4 starts.

None of the three starters tend to go deep in games very often.   Sanchez averages 5.05 IP/start, Walker 5.37, and Suarez 5.62.   The Phillies’ bullpen is solid though unspectacular, so hopefully we can get to their middle relievers and do some damage.

Overall, it’s a pretty evenly matched series.

 

[LA2]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Gotta consider Bautista and Cano unavailable for this series if you care about their health for the duration of the series. They were already pitched too much before the Tampa Series and we piled on the workload anyway because of how important the head to head matchup was with Tampa. 

Baumann might be unavailable for game 1 after how many pitches he threw yesterday.

It helps having a guy like Irvin who can basically cover 6 or 7 innings if you need him, and save the rest of the bullpen.

Bautista and Cano not available all series? I'm pretty sure that Hyde will expect them to be ready for the third game, if needed.

As for Baumann, yes of course: no way he's pitching after 2.2 innings / 38 pitches yesterday.

Fujinami had a day off to lick his psychic wounds and maybe work on something w the coaches. Against the Phillies, he has what so far has seemed to be a typical line in a SSS 1.1 inning: 3 of the 4 outs were Ks, but there were also 1 BB, 2 H and 1 ER.

He'll be part of the sufficiently-rested, 2 RH/2 LH 2nd-string back end of the 'pen: Perez, Baker and Coulombe. Not having pitched since July 18th, our Cole will definitely be deployed if one of the starters can't go more than 4 or 5 IP. His ERA has dropped in a straight line from 7.18 to 5.40 over the last 4 appearances (18.1 IP).

Edited July 24, 2023 by LA2

[FlipTheBird]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer but I could see us laying an egg in this series after the intensity of the 4 games against the Rays. I'd be happy if we got 1. And Bautista and Cano are unavailable today which doesn't help.

This post is a lie. You are always a downer and seem to revel in it.

[DirtyBird]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

None of the three starters tend to go deep in games very often.   Sanchez averages 5.05 IP/start, Walker 5.37, and Suarez 5.62.   The Phillies’ bullpen is solid though unspectacular, so hopefully we can get to their middle relievers and do some damage.

Overall, it’s a pretty evenly matched series.

 

Do you have stats on our offense vs bullpens? It seems like we have not been doing much damage against them recently.

[Rbiggs2525]

I think it’s good we are getting two left handed starters. A good chance today to rest some players and play McCann, Mateo, Westburg, Mountcastle, Urias. Will need big night out of bullpen.