Jump to content

AL Playoff Race - 9 weeks left- now 1 week


eddie83

Recommended Posts

I did something along these lines last year. Of course last year it was about whether the Orioles could get a WC spot. Much more at stake this year.  I marked the 5 week mark on each teams schedules. The end of the 5 week mark is Labor Day weekend. Schedules run Monday-Sunday. I included games left for today but not those games on schedule.  
 

 

AL playoff race 

AL East                         GB             GL 

BAL         63-41                                58
TB           63-44                 1.5          55


TOR        59-46                 4.5          57


BOS        56-48                 7.0          58


NYY         55-49                 8.0         56

AL Central 
MINN      54-52                                56
CLE         52-53                 1.5          57

AL West
TEX         60-45                                57
HOU        59-46                 1.0          57


LAA          54-51                 6.0         57
SEA          53-51                 6.5         58

AL WC
TB             63-44

TOR          59-46

HOU         59-46
——————
BOS           56-48              2.5
NYY           55-49              3.5
LAA            54-51              5.0
SEA            53-51              5.5
CLE            52-53              7.0

 

 

SCHEDULES

BAL 
@TOR (4)    NYM (3)
HOU (3)    @SEA (3)
@SD (3)    @OAK (3)
TOR (3)    COL (3)
CWS (3)    @ARZ (3)                 5
@LAA (3)    @BOS (3)
STL (3)    TB (4)
@HOU (3)    @CLE (4)
WAS (2)    BOS (4)

TB 
@NYY (3)    @DET (3)
STL (3)    CLE (3)
@SF (3)    @LAA (3)
COL (3)    NYY(3)
@MIA (2)    @ CLE (3)               5
BOS (3)    SEA (4)
@MIN (3)    @BAL (4)
LAA (3)    TOR (3)
BOS (2)    @TOR (3)
    

TOR
BAL (4)     @BOS (3)
@CLE (4)    CHC(3)
PHI (2)     @CIN (3)
@BAL (3)     CLE (3)
WAS (3)     @COL (3)                5
@OAK (3)     KC (3)
TEX (4)     BOS (3)
@NYY (3)    @TB (3)
NYY (3)    TB (3)

BOS
@SEA (3)    TOR (3)
KC (4)     DET (3)
@WAS (3)     @NYY (3)
@HOU (4)    LAD (3)
HOU (3)    @KC (3)                  5
@TB (3)    BAL (3)
NYY (4)     @TOR (3)
@TEX (3)    CWS (3)
TB (2)    @BAL (4)

NYY
TB (3)    HOU (4)
@CWS (3)    @MIA (3)
@ATL (3)    BOS (3)
WAS (3)    @TB (3)
@DET (4)    @HOU (3)              5
DET (3)    MIL (3)
@BOS (4)    @PIT (3)
TOR (3)    ARZ (3)
@TOR (3)    @KC (3)

—————————————————
MIN
@STL (3)    ARZ (3)
@DET (4)    @PHI (3)
DET (2)    PIT (3)
@MIL (2)    TEX (4)
CLE (3)     @TEX (3)               5
@CLE (3)     NYM (3)
TB (3)    @CWS (4)
@CIN (3)    LAA (3)
OAK (3)    @COL (3)

CLE
@HOU (3)    CWS (3)
@TOR (4)    @TB (3)
CIN (2)    DET (4)
LAD (3)    @TOR (3)
MIN (3)    TB (3)                       5
MIN(3)    @LAA (4)
@SF (3)    TEX (3)
@KC (3)    BAL (4)
CIN (2)    @DET (3) 

——————————————————

TEX
CWS (3)    MIA (3)
@OAK (3)    @SF (3)
LAS (3)    MIL (3)
@ARZ (2)    @MINN (4)
@NYM (3)    MIN (3)                   5
HOU (3)    OAK (3)
@TOR (4)    @CLE (3)
BOS (3)    SEA (3)
@LAA (3)    @ SEA (4) 

HOU
CLE (3)    @NYY (4)
@BAL (3)     @LAA (3)
@MIA (3)    SEA (3)
BOS (4)    @DET (3)
@BOS (3)    NYY (3)                  5
@TEX (3)    SD (3)
OAK (3)    @KC (3)
BAL (3)     KC (3)
@SEA (3)    @ARZ (3)

LAA
@ATL (3)    SEA (4)
SF (3)    @HOU (3)
@TEX (3)    TB (3)
CIN (3)    @NYM (3)
@PHI (3)    @OAK (3)                5
BAL (3)    CLE (4)
@SEA (3)    DET (3)
@TB (3)    @MIN(3)
TEX (3)    OAK (3)

SEA
BOS (3)    @LAA (4)
SD (2)    BAL (3)
@KC (4)    @HOU (3)
@CWS (3)    KC (3)
OAK (3)    @NYM (3)               5
@CIN (3)    @TB (4)
LAA (3)    LAD (3)
@OAK (3)    @TEX (3)
HOU (3)    TEX (4)
 

 

Edited by eddie83
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unless i missed something, Orioles have Lost the fewest of Any of the teams. So their destiny is more in their own hands than otherwise because the games to be played to make it up to the other teams total games played,  can be won.  But if games are already played and lost, even if they  win the rest of the games to be played, they are still stuck with the loss total.   Another  reason to strengthen the team before trading deadline has passed, so an improved team. at least on paper.  plays those extra games.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Natty said:

The O's keep winning.

The Ray's are collapsing. 

Love it. 

The Jays and the Sox are surging. Going to be an interesting finish. If the Jays win today and we lose, they are 3.5 behind us with a 4-game set and we don't match up particularly well, right now.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A .500 finish gets us to 97 wins by my calculation.

I think I’d take that. Probably doesn’t win the division, but gets us the first wild card spot. Of course, we should be gunning for the division. I’m just being realistic given our schedule, injuries, and pitching struggles.  

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Malike said:

The Jays and the Sox are surging. Going to be an interesting finish. If the Jays win today and we lose, they are 3.5 behind us with a 4-game set and we don't match up particularly well, right now.

Angeles just took a 3-run lead in the top of the 10th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Toronto lost 3-2. Orioles could pick up a full game on them today.

That's huge. Did not want to go into TOR possibly being only 3.5 ahead. I am REALLY worried about this TOR series. It's a terrible match up right now. I'd be thrilled w/ a split.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at these numbers and the implication that the division and the best record in the AL are really the Orioles to lose, a front office decision to not add to this team at the deadline seems inexcusable. This is a chance to place the 2023 team in the best possible position to make a deep playoff run. These opportunities don't present themselves very often. I hope Elias appreciates that fact.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, dtk9119 said:

That's huge. Did not want to go into TOR possibly being only 3.5 ahead. I am REALLY worried about this TOR series. It's a terrible match up right now. I'd be thrilled w/ a split.

Another high-stakes series. It seems like it's been one after the other the past few weeks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

Another high-stakes series. It seems like it's been one after the other the past few weeks.

When you’re good, things matter more. And there isn’t a pushover in the division so they don’t get the added bonus of a couple extra games (though admittedly fewer than in year’s past) against a team that’s tanking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Posts

    • I will ask you the same thing that I asked him (and he did not answer) - What team could/would give them a package (that he suggests) that gives the Tigers a prospect comparable to Mayo plus Kjerstad plus more prospects? Dylan Cease was moved for nowhere near that. I agree that it might require a Mayo/Basallo level prospect as in one. But I don’t see starting pitchers in 2024 commanding that kind of trade value (that was suggested) given the injury risks/probabilities.
    • Fedde versus Suarez Fedde versus Kremer? Who would you pick for the #3 starter?   What is a 1/2 of season of success really worth?    
    • Ultimately it does make sense since he threw 43 pitches to throw him Thursday vs Cubs and then send him down.    It would push Suarez to 6 days rest and keep Grayson on 5. Then just have to see who they start Tuesday to see who goes Sunday. They could get cute and have a pen game as well. Hate to say it but one advantage of Burnes pitching Sunday is he can’t pitch in ASG.  
    • I’d probably want to isolate Fedde in a trade and make it less complicated. Norby and McDermott seems fair for him.  I believe Fedde has 2.5 season left. So that’s 3 playoffs. Similar to what Bud Norris had when we traded for him. 
    • For me, it’s an easy yes and I’d probably go for the enhanced package to add Brebbia for a couple DSL players (excepting Jordan Sanchez, Adriander Meija, Elvin Garcia, Keeler Morfe, and Esteban Meija). - Fedde is probably similar to Kremer or maybe a slight notch below, but better than Suarez and Irvin I think.  He improves the 4 spot in the rotation this year and next year with the extra year of control.  If he gives us a 4.15 ERA over this year and next, that may not be sexy but it is valuable. - Kopech “stuff” modeling metrics are off the charts - he is 5th out 157 qualified relievers.  He has a 3.39 SIERA. He’s controlled through next year. Perhaps, most importantly, he can be optioned this year. - Brebbia has a a 2.75 SIERA, 3.14 FIP, and 3.19 xFIP. His Stuff+ is 105.  He makes our bullpen better. - All three will benefit from better defense with the Orioles. - I’m not super high on Norby or Beavers.  I’m not sure what Norby’s carrying took is. Theoretically, it’s his hit tool but he is striking out 29% of the time. He is also not a particularly patient hitter.  He has middling exit velocities and most of his AAA home runs wouldn’t be home runs at Camden Yards. His defense has been known to be a weakness.  Beavers is far from a sure thing to stick in the MLB at all, much less become an average regular or better. I’m not sure the White Sox make this deal but I would (particularly if it transacted now and we got an extra month).
    • No better alternatives.    Keep evaluating him until we get another starter.  If he gets annihilated again, send him down regardless.
    • Have to see if today they announce Tuesdays SP or not. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...