Offseason trade target: Luis Robert

[FlaO'sFan]

Joking. Kind of. I am one who always values our players sky high and doesn't want to give up hardly anything in trades. At least I realize it, though.

[Jim'sKid26]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Robert would probably be a COFer for us on a regular basis and play CF at times, so the Bradfield angle is covered.

Is he as valuable as a COF? I get the RH hitter issue but now you have a couple of promising COFs in Norfolk who would be blocked who are going to be much less expensive than Robert. 

[oriolediehard]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I kind of don’t either but either Ortiz or Westburg basically have to be dealt. There is a real question as to which one is the better player long term.

I think making one a part time player for us is short changing their value, so trading them to bring back a high level guy (whether it be Robert or a pitcher) is a better way to go.

I would rather trade Ortiz, Cowser, Vavra or Stowers.

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I’m not really blocking prospects, as I would be trading one of the corner guys, which leaves room for the other one and Bradfield still has his spot.

And blocking prospects is an issue with guys like Hicks and Frazier..not players with MVP level ability who are signed cheaply through their prime years.

Interesting thought. I doubt he will be available but I'd be interested enough to see what they want

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is he as valuable as a COF? I get the RH hitter issue but now you have a couple of promising COFs in Norfolk who would be blocked who are going to be much less expensive than Robert. 

Well, there are certainly COFers that put up big WAR numbers. Is he more valuable in CF?  Probably but elite talent is elite talent and that is what he is when healthy.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

I would rather trade Ortiz, Cowser, Vavra or Stowers.

Vavra and Stowers are not guys that are in this conversation because they don’t belong in it and Vavra doesn’t belong in any trade conversation at all.

[deward]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure any reports say that he has regressed. You had the one FG article that mentioned something but I don’t think that pointed to regression. And again, that was one opinion.

Also, that was talking about him at SS, not second base.  He would be an elite defensive second baseman.

I would lean Westburg too but I don’t think Ortiz is a bad consolation prize.

This was the quote from the FG article:

I’ve dialed down the grades on Orioles infield prospect Joey Ortiz’s defense and arm by a full standard deviation. His diminutive size makes him especially agile, but he lacks any other exceptional defensive attributes.

It's just one scout's (analyst/whatever you want to call him) opinion, but it gives me pause. A lot of the argument for Ortiz is wrapped up in the idea that he's a GG caliber SS. If he's not that, then what does he do better than Westburg? Perhaps he's a little better glove at 2B, but Westburg has looked great out there to me. I don't intend to turn this into a Westburg vs Ortiz thread, my point is just that I don't consider them interchangable parts any longer for trade purposes. If anything, I'd argue that you should be grouping Westburg with Cowser and Kjerstad in terms of trade value.

[Osornot]

41 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I kind of don’t either but either Ortiz or Westburg basically have to be dealt. There is a real question as to which one is the better player long term.

I think making one a part time player for us is short changing their value, so trading them to bring back a high level guy (whether it be Robert or a pitcher) is a better way to go.

I'd go for a pitcher

[Spy Fox]

The quantity-for-quality, several prospects for an elite player trade is one we should pull off at some point for this roster to make the most sense in the coming years.

It's a clearer need on the SP front but doing something for an offensive player could work too and Robert is a good target. The price listed in the OP seemed a little steep at first glance, but I might be underrating the potential surplus value of those '26 and '27 options. 

[vab]

Any deal that involves giving up multiple top prospects should be for starting pitching, not a position player. 

[oriolediehard]

13 minutes ago, deward said:

This was the quote from the FG article:

I’ve dialed down the grades on Orioles infield prospect Joey Ortiz’s defense and arm by a full standard deviation. His diminutive size makes him especially agile, but he lacks any other exceptional defensive attributes.

It's just one scout's (analyst/whatever you want to call him) opinion, but it gives me pause. A lot of the argument for Ortiz is wrapped up in the idea that he's a GG caliber SS. If he's not that, then what does he do better than Westburg? Perhaps he's a little better glove at 2B, but Westburg has looked great out there to me. I don't intend to turn this into a Westburg vs Ortiz thread, my point is just that I don't consider them interchangable parts any longer for trade purposes. If anything, I'd argue that you should be grouping Westburg with Cowser and Kjerstad in terms of trade value.

Since Roberts is an outfielder, why trade for him when Westburg could learn to play outfield and keep Ortiz?  Kjerstad is already an outfielder. I'm not impressed with Cowser so far.  It is a major risk to trade multiple prospects for a pitcher because all pitchers are more susceptible to injury.

[banks703]

4 minutes ago, deward said:

This was the quote from the FG article:

I’ve dialed down the grades on Orioles infield prospect Joey Ortiz’s defense and arm by a full standard deviation. His diminutive size makes him especially agile, but he lacks any other exceptional defensive attributes.

It's just one scout's (analyst/whatever you want to call him) opinion, but it gives me pause. A lot of the argument for Ortiz is wrapped up in the idea that he's a GG caliber SS. If he's not that, then what does he do better than Westburg? Perhaps he's a little better glove at 2B, but Westburg has looked great out there to me. I don't intend to turn this into a Westburg vs Ortiz thread, my point is just that I don't consider them interchangable parts any longer for trade purposes. If anything, I'd argue that you should be grouping Westburg with Cowser and Kjerstad in terms of trade value.

This is pretty consistent with what a couple of posters on here have maintained with regard to Ortiz. His hands and glove are elite and as true as there has been in the org since JJ Hardy but Ortiz has far superior range. He does not have the arm of Mateo or Gunnar but I've never seen anyone report otherwise. His arm is a tick below those guys but a tick above JW, Holliday and Urias. Ramon's style of play at third is actually a really good comp for how Joey plays SS (keeping in mind that Ramon was acquired as a SS). Joey is very consistent, easily makes plays that are considered difficult and will occasionally make the spectacular play with low volume mistakes. He isn't as rangy as 2022 Jorge Mateo but he is as close to 2022 Mateo that is currently in the org, which includes 2023 Mateo. I've long compared Joey to Jack Wilson and personally prefer him to JW.

We have to keep in mind that a lot of national/online publications write articles based on very little (actual) observation of the player. There was an article from fangraphs on Holliday about two weeks back from a writer who observed 70ish plays from Jackson Holliday. 70 plays is a lot. I'd guess the writer of the piece you are referencing did not observe Joey Ortiz for 70 plays before writing the article.  

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Osornot said:

I'd go for a pitcher

You can do both.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, he’s not expensive, especially relative to production. If Robert was a FA, he would make 5-7 times his current contract. 

Elias came from an organization that trading talent for vet guys on contracts and Robert is a cheaper guy who is young and in the prime of his career.

Robert will make 12.5m in 2024, 15m 2025 with two option years at 20m.   That is more expensive than  any player the O's currently have and you are proposing to trade away several players making the minimum salary.   That does not sound like the O's to me.

[CallMeBrooksie]

13 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Since Roberts is an outfielder, why trade for him when Westburg could learn to play outfield and keep Ortiz?  Kjerstad is already an outfielder. I'm not impressed with Cowser so far.  It is a major risk to trade multiple prospects for a pitcher because all pitchers are more susceptible to injury.

Why would you put Westburg in the OF? That would be a horrible waste of his defensive talent and would sap a lot of value from him.

If you don't have a place for Westburg in your IF,  you trade him.