Heston Kjerstad 2023

[AnythingO's]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I kind of felt this before anyway but Kjerstad > Cowser. Now, that doesn’t mean I don’t like Cowser or don’t think he won’t be good or that I don’t want to hand him a starting job next year but if I had to trade one or the other, I’m trading Cowser and if I could only start one on OD next year, it’s Kjerstad.

I know Cowser may be the more complete player but I’m still taking Kjerstad’s power as the one skill I feel will translate the most/best out of any skill either possesses and they both possess a lot of skill.

This is the way I feel as well, but I have been a HK booster all along. I feel like HK's power is better but CC has higher SLG at AAA as well as higher OBP. Go figure. The thing is HK has a rep of below average speed but his Fangraphs Spd rating is higher than CC's. Westburg (6.6), Ortiz (6.5), HK (6.0), CC (4.9). Now their rating seems more tied to baserunning so decision making factors in. My eyes say HK is faster than CC but the sprint speed and scout ratings don't agree. I believe HK will be at least average in RF and his bat will play in 2024 ROY race.

[bluedog]

2 hours ago, deward said:

I don't know how O'Hearn fits into the long-term plan; he wasn't really supposed to be here contributing at this level. Elias definitely has a puzzle to try and put together for next year.

It won't all happen at once, but maybe this is the plan longer term?

Norby replaces Mateo

Ortiz replaces Urias

Holliday replaces Frazier

Cowser replaces Hicks

Kjerstad replaces Santander

Mayo replaces either Ohearn or Mountcastle

Basallo replaces McCann

Beavers replaces Hayes

Bradfield Jr replaces Mullins

[NCRaven]

I suspect that Mountcastle's eventual replacement at 1B (and I'm a huge Mountcastle booster) is Samuel Basallo.  Unfortunately, he's a lefty hitter and righty fielder.  So a right handed bat will need to be found at another position.  Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday, our best young infielders, also hit lefty.  As do Kjerstad, Cowser, and Beavers.  Elias really went hard after left-handed bats in the draft.  Fabian is a righty, but I'm not particularly high on his bat.  A righty bat with power may have to come in free agency or trade once they move on from Hays.

[Malike]

35 minutes ago, bluedog said:

It won't all happen at once, but maybe this is the plan longer term?

Norby replaces Mateo

Ortiz replaces Urias

Holliday replaces Frazier

Cowser replaces Hicks

Kjerstad replaces Santander

Mayo replaces either Ohearn or Mountcastle

Basallo replaces McCann

Beavers replaces Hayes

Bradfield Jr replaces Mullins

No top teams have totally homegrown lineups. It would sure be nice, but it's a pipe dream. Some/many will bust.

[Roy Firestone]

I think Kjerstad will replace Santander and maybe sooner than we think.

[Roy Firestone]

And dont sleep on Coby Mayo...who may end up being our best power hitter for the future.

[AnythingO's]

9 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I think Kjerstad will replace Santander and maybe sooner than we think.

I kinda agree but there seems to be a feeling that Santander is the glue for this team and he has been around as long as Hays and Mullins. Maybe he is next year's "veteran" presence in ARB 3 and we keep his switch-hitting bat 1 more year and QO for a pick. That said, could Ant replace O'Hearn and share 1B/DH with Mounty? ME has some decisions to make.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Mountcastle has a career 7.3% BB%, 7.8% this year. Kjerstad had a high walk rate in 100 PA of A ball last year, but was 8.6% in A+, 7.3% in AA and 8.0% in AAA. Kjerstad probably (hopefully) does have a better batting eye, but I’m not expecting him to walk much. He’s aggressive swinging at strikes early in the count and is going to put a lot of balls in play. He’ll probably have a similar BB rate to Mountcastle but hopefully a better K rate.
 
Kjerstad is not a patient hitter in the same mold as Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Holliday. His K/BB rates will depend on where his MLB chase and whiff rates land ultimately, but likely they will be averagish and what is going to carry his offensive profile is his contact quality, like Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Hays, Santander. 

Maybe 2023 Ryan O’Hearn is a better comp that Mountcastle, but with better contact rates. 

I tend to think of walk rate as only one element of plate discipline.  Mountcastle swings at 41.5% of pitches outside the strike zone, and that’s abysmal.  I’ll predict that Kjerstad will be much better in that respect.  

[AnythingO's]

12 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

And dont sleep on Coby Mayo...who may end up being our best power hitter for the future.

I think Mayo and Holiday get the Gunnar August 31 treatment in 2024 to preserve ROY status for 2025. 2024 is for HK and CC and Ortiz.

[NCRaven]

15 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

And dont sleep on Coby Mayo...who may end up being our best power hitter for the future.

I'd like to see Mayo get some time in right field next season.  His big arm fits there and he will have less ground to cover in Camden Yards than he would in left.

[accinfo]

3 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I think Mayo and Holiday get the Gunnar August 31 treatment in 2024 to preserve ROY status for 2025. 2024 is for HK and CC and Ortiz.

I think Mayo may get that but if Holliday does anything in April in Norfolk he will be up in May next year.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

I think Kjerstad will replace Santander and maybe sooner than we think.

I know this team is enjoyable to watch, but Elias has some hard choices to make this off-season. They just can't keep players like Kjerstad, Cowser and Urias relegated to seldom used bench player or stuck at Norfolk forever.

Plus players like Santander and Hays are only going to get more expensive the closer they reach free agency. Pitching depth is always a need and it's an area where the organization isn't overflowing with prospects.

It won't be surprising to me to see a player like Hays or Santander traded. And I have to think some prospects are going to be trade bait too.

[Bemorewins]

25 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I think Mayo and Holiday get the Gunnar August 31 treatment in 2024 to preserve ROY status for 2025. 2024 is for HK and CC and Ortiz.

I seriously don’t see that happening for either especially Holliday. We are on the clock in terms of time that we have to retain the services of Adley and Gunnar. With Holliday’s immense talent/rise/potential there is no way that we keep him down most of next year. We are going to need to maximize our championship window. We are now in win now mode. When Gunnar came to the club last year, we were not.

[RZNJ]

58 minutes ago, Malike said:

No top teams have totally homegrown lineups. It would sure be nice, but it's a pipe dream. Some/many will bust.

We’re pretty close now.

1B Mountcastle

2B Westburg

SS Henderson

C Rutschmann

LF Hays

CF Mullins

That’s 6 of 9.   It’s not far fetched to think it could be 7 or 8 of 9 by next April.  

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

No top teams have totally homegrown lineups. It would sure be nice, but it's a pipe dream. Some/many will bust.

We do.  Like right this second.