Fangraphs article on why their projections hate us

[Hallas]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wait-fangraphs-is-too-low-on-the-orioles-again/

 

Good explanation here.

 

The offense is doing better than projections because of clutch hitting, which has been shown to be only a *very* marginally repeatable skill.  So they think the offensive projections make sense.

 

On the pitching side, however, the gist is that Fangraphs isn't doing a great job of projecting Orioles bullpen usage, and Hyde/the Orioles bullpen management is likely to result in the O's beating its run prevention projections.  Clemens' conclusion is that betting markets are probably overvaluing the O's offense, and Fangraphs is underselling the O's pitching, so Clemens thinks that more or less splitting the difference makes sense.  The current moneyline on a WS win is +750, or ~11.7%, and Fangraphs projection says we have about a 5.5% chance.  So splitting the difference they came up with 7.2%, about equal to the Rays.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Hallas

[dzorange]

I personally love reading the write ups Fangraphs does when they do an Orioles-specific article. Hell, one of the main guys is an Orioles fan. Another one is named Mike Baumann. Perhaps another reason to not like Fangraphs, for some.

There's a difference between their numbers that hate the Orioles and their analysis.

Edited September 20, 2023 by dzorange

[Moose Milligan]

 

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

I'm sure you'd enjoy sniffing this girl's farts.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, dzorange said:

I personally love reading the write ups Fangraphs does when they do an Orioles-specific article. Hell, one of the main guys is an Orioles fan. Another one is named Mike Baumann. There's a difference between their numbers that hate the Orioles and their analysis.

Clemens himself was the lone Fangraphs writer who picked the Orioles to win the AL East in their preseason poll.  Not that I’m faulting the other writers; very few people including our own posters saw this season coming.  I’m mostly annoyed at their so-called power rankings that seem to disregard things like actually winning games and beating other teams. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

I'm sure you'd enjoy sniffing this girl's farts.

Probably.

I'm reading Ben Clemens' article here and it's an ungodly, awful, like...stream of consciousness that just keeps rambling and going off in different tangents.  It's a horribly written article.

[dzorange]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Clemens himself was the lone Fangraphs writer who picked the Orioles to win the AL East in their preseason poll.  Not that I’m faulting the other writers; very few people including our own posters saw this season coming.  I’m mostly annoyed at their so-called power rankings that seem to disregard things like actually winning games and beating other teams. 

All power rankings are pretty much just click bait to begin with

[Hallas]

I was thinking about the offensive overperformance and I had an epiphany: the Orioles seem to do much better when facing a pitcher a second time. Anecdotally, pitchers seem to cruise for 2-3 innings, and then in the 4th or 5th, the O's get a runner on, the pitcher has to pitch from the stretch for the first time that day, and their mechanics get thrown off sync and they allow more hits. And I went through the splits and that appears to be the case; .303 wOBA against starters the first time through, .346 2nd time through compared to a league average of .323.  Even higher the 3rd and 4th times through.  If this is a repeatable skill then it would explain why the Orioles are outperforming their underlying stats offensively. The O's perform about how you'd expect them to against relievers, so that means that a disproportionate number of hits against them are coming in during a starter's 2nd or 3rd time through the order. Compressing a team's hits in 3 or so innings is going to lead to more runs scored versus an even distribution of hits.

 

This *feels* like a repeatable skill to me, though what feels right versus what is actually the case aren't always aligned.

 

This is probably more exploitable in the playoffs because you can blow your bullpen more regularly due to the rest schedule.  We'll see how it goes though.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wait-fangraphs-is-too-low-on-the-orioles-again/

 

Good explanation here.

 

The offense is doing better than projections because of clutch hitting, which has been shown to be only a *very* marginally repeatable skill.  So they think the offensive projections make sense.

 

On the pitching side, however, the gist is that Fangraphs isn't doing a great job of projecting Orioles bullpen usage, and Hyde/the Orioles bullpen management is likely to result in the O's beating its run prevention projections.  Clemens' conclusion is that betting markets are probably overvaluing the O's offense, and Fangraphs is underselling the O's pitching, so Clemens thinks that more or less splitting the difference makes sense.  The current moneyline on a WS win is +750, or ~11.7%, and Fangraphs projection says we have about a 5.5% chance.  So splitting the difference they came up with 7.2%, about equal to the Rays.

I want to pin this next bit to every game thread for the rest of the season.

Quote

They have the sixth-best batting average in baseball, but the best batting average with runners in scoring position (.288!). With runners in scoring position and two outs, they’re second in the majors. They’re third in wOBA with RISP as compared to 10th overall. With runners on base, their slugging percentage jumps by 23 points, as opposed to eight points for all teams in aggregate.

 

[nvpacchi]

Fangraphs with their usual thumbing their nose at the Orioles this season in the post season power ranking article.  If you feel the need to be offended, go read it, but I'll leave this doozy.

The O’s biggest weakness is in their rotation, where they don’t have a top shelf ace to carry them through the postseason. Still, they’ve finally broken out of their long rebuilding cycle and look like a team that will be in the mix for a World Series for the foreseeable future.

cue Rodney Dangerfield....

Not sure what else Bradish and GRod have to do on top of having some of the best 2nd halves among AL starters.  Im taking them over Eovaldi/Montgomery and the gap ain't large btwn Glasnow/Eflin and Framber/Verlander

 

 

 

[24fps]

16 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

Fangraphs with their usual thumbing their nose at the Orioles this season in the post season power ranking article.  If you feel the need to be offended, go read it, but I'll leave this doozy.

The O’s biggest weakness is in their rotation, where they don’t have a top shelf ace to carry them through the postseason. Still, they’ve finally broken out of their long rebuilding cycle and look like a team that will be in the mix for a World Series for the foreseeable future.

cue Rodney Dangerfield....

Not sure what else Bradish and GRod have to do on top of having some of the best 2nd halves among AL starters.  Im taking them over Eovaldi/Montgomery and the gap ain't large btwn Glasnow/Eflin and Framber/Verlander

 

 

 

Still Tier 3 I see...

The O's have 6.9% WS odds but the Tier 2 Rangers are at 4.6% and the Tier 1 Rays are at 6%.  Makes sense to me. 

At this point I'm really curious as to why Fangraphs is working overtime to undermine its credibility.  When it comes to predictions most fair-minded people are happy to factor in a liberal amount of slack, after all.  And if a long-standing, professional media organization like Fangraphs still thinks it's okay to demand its audience wade through lengthy and exceedingly obscure process for buy-in then it deserves every frickin' thing it gets.

[Moose Milligan]

Fangraphs sucks. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Still Tier 3 I see...

The O's have 6.9% WS odds but the Tier 2 Rangers are at 4.6% and the Tier 1 Rays are at 6%.  Makes sense to me. 

At this point I'm really curious as to why Fangraphs is working overtime to undermine its credibility.  When it comes to predictions most fair-minded people are happy to factor in a liberal amount of slack, after all.  And if a long-standing, professional media organization like Fangraphs still thinks it's okay to demand its audience wade through lengthy and exceedingly obscure process for buy-in then it deserves every frickin' thing it gets.

They aren't?

Are you suggesting that ignoring their internal projection and ab-libbing the O's higher would make them more credible?

[O's84]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fangraphs sucks. 

Cito must work for them.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They aren't?

Are you suggesting that ignoring their internal projection and ab-libbing the O's higher would make them more credible?

At this point, probably so.  Because their internal projection essentially disregards what’s actually happened over a 162 game season.