Dunning Worries Me If He Is The Game One Starter

[baltfan]

I am assuming Dane Dunning is the starter for Saturday.  Even if he isn't, it seems likely he will start a game.  Dunning seems to have a lot of the traits of pitchers the Orioles struggle against.  He throws a sinker with an avg velocity of 91 mph.  Repeatedly we have seen the Orioles struggle against low velocity pitchers.  Fortunately, they tend to hit ground ball pitchers quite well to the tune of 119 sOPS+ (OPS+ vs. the rest of the league against that split).   However, they only have a 91 sOPS+ against Finesse pitchers (definition of Finesse Pitcher on BR is bottom 1/3 in Ks + BB - apparently this is adjusted per PA).  I cannot find out who are finesse pitchers in the AL this year, though Dunning looks like he might upon his strikeout rate.  His is also right-handed, and somewhat surprising to me the Orioles hit worse against righties than lefties vs the rest of the league 100 sOPS+ vs. 106 sOPS+.   

Now, maybe the fact that the Orioles know he is the likely starter they are preparing for his pitch mix, but it definitely could lead to a frustrating Saturday.

BTW, the Rangers has an sOPS+ above 110 for everything but ground ball pitchers which they have a 96 sOPS+ against.  I guess that would bode better for using Gibson vs. Kremer.  

[Malike]

I think you can sum up the rest of the season as - They're all good.

[glenn__davis]

7 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think you can sum up the rest of the season as - They're all good.

Yep.  In order to win the tournament you need to beat good teams.  Should be a fun challenge.

[Sports Guy]

He has very good numbers vs the Os

[dzorange]

Rangers fans are probably even more worried about Dunning. He's never been good against lefties, at all. O's are gonna throw a bunch of lefties against him. I think the O's are set up pretty well Game 1.

[dzorange]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has very good numbers vs the Os

Four innings in 2023 against the O's, all out of the bullpen. O's were up 7-1 in this game after 2.5 innings in Texas.

Edited October 6, 2023 by dzorange

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, dzorange said:

Rangers fans are probably even more worried about Dunning. He's never been good against lefties, at all. O's are gonna throw a bunch of lefties against him. I think the O's are set up pretty well Game 1.

Our lefty hitters are a combined 8-43 vs him.

Gunnar hasn’t faced him.

As a team, with those players currently here, the slash line vs him is 167/219/333/552

Only 60 at bats.

[baltfan]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He has very good numbers vs the Os

Yep. https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/36080/dane-dunning

[baltfan]

44 minutes ago, Malike said:

I think you can sum up the rest of the season as - They're all good.

Meh, given my druthers I would rather the Orioles face the high velocity pitchers vs the soft tosses, and that is the opposite of how most fans of teams feel. 

[e16bball]

Gotta figure it’s probably a maximum of two times through the lineup for Dunning. 

They’ve got 3 lefties in the bullpen (Burke, Smith, Chapman) who are pretty tough on LH hitters, and I think they’ll use them liberally in Game One with the knowledge that they likely won’t be quite so necessary if Montgomery starts Game Two.

I imagine they’ll each get a whack at the Gunnar-through-Mullins portion of our lineup against RHPs.

One of the interesting questions for me is whether Hyde would put both Mountcastle and O’Hearn in the starting lineup against Dunning (sending Hicks to the bench) or would hold back Mountcastle as an effort to deter (or attack) a Bochy move to a middle-innings LHP reliever. 

[Malike]

2 hours ago, baltfan said:

I am assuming Dane Dunning is the starter for Saturday.  Even if he isn't, it seems likely he will start a game.  Dunning seems to have a lot of the traits of pitchers the Orioles struggle against.  He throws a sinker with an avg velocity of 91 mph.  Repeatedly we have seen the Orioles struggle against low velocity pitchers.  Fortunately, they tend to hit ground ball pitchers quite well to the tune of 119 sOPS+ (OPS+ vs. the rest of the league against that split).   However, they only have a 91 sOPS+ against Finesse pitchers (definition of Finesse Pitcher on BR is bottom 1/3 in Ks + BB - apparently this is adjusted per PA).  I cannot find out who are finesse pitchers in the AL this year, though Dunning looks like he might upon his strikeout rate.  His is also right-handed, and somewhat surprising to me the Orioles hit worse against righties than lefties vs the rest of the league 100 sOPS+ vs. 106 sOPS+.   

Now, maybe the fact that the Orioles know he is the likely starter they are preparing for his pitch mix, but it definitely could lead to a frustrating Saturday.

BTW, the Rangers has an sOPS+ above 110 for everything but ground ball pitchers which they have a 96 sOPS+ against.  I guess that would bode better for using Gibson vs. Kremer.  

I think it will be interesting if they pitch Means in this series. A guy who doesn't miss bats or strike anyone out vs. a team that doesn't chase and doesn't strike out.

[baltfan]

14 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Gotta figure it’s probably a maximum of two times through the lineup for Dunning. 

They’ve got 3 lefties in the bullpen (Burke, Smith, Chapman) who are pretty tough on LH hitters, and I think they’ll use them liberally in Game One with the knowledge that they likely won’t be quite so necessary if Montgomery starts Game Two.

I imagine they’ll each get a whack at the Gunnar-through-Mullins portion of our lineup against RHPs.

One of the interesting questions for me is whether Hyde would put both Mountcastle and O’Hearn in the starting lineup against Dunning (sending Hicks to the bench) or would hold back Mountcastle as an effort to deter (or attack) a Bochy move to a middle-innings LHP reliever. 

I hope the Orioles go for maximizing defense which to me means Hays in left and, gulp, Santander in right.  That’s right, I said it, I am more comfortable with him there than Hicks. 

[Malike]

16 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Gotta figure it’s probably a maximum of two times through the lineup for Dunning. 

They’ve got 3 lefties in the bullpen (Burke, Smith, Chapman) who are pretty tough on LH hitters, and I think they’ll use them liberally in Game One with the knowledge that they likely won’t be quite so necessary if Montgomery starts Game Two.

I imagine they’ll each get a whack at the Gunnar-through-Mullins portion of our lineup against RHPs.

One of the interesting questions for me is whether Hyde would put both Mountcastle and O’Hearn in the starting lineup against Dunning (sending Hicks to the bench) or would hold back Mountcastle as an effort to deter (or attack) a Bochy move to a middle-innings LHP reliever. 

If Montgomery isn't getting strike calls a foot off the plate as he did in his first start, he's no lock to go 7 IP. One of the things Bochy is apparently famous for is his masterful handling of his bullpen in the post season.

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

I think it will be interesting if they pitch Means in this series. A guy who doesn't miss bats or strike anyone out vs. a team that doesn't chase and doesn't strike out.

Would be surprised if they didn’t use him.  The alternative would be Kremer who gives up a lot of homers.  

[Malike]

Just now, baltfan said:

Would be surprised if they didn’t use him.  The alternative would be Kremer who gives up a lot of homers.  

Means does too...