Santander Speculation

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You keep saying that.  Yet RZNJ already provided the stats that show that is completely false.  Santander shows no significant splits as a SH.

I have no idea what RZ says, which is great.

That said, as I mentioned earlier, in 2 of his 4 full years, he did show a bad split. 

2019 and 2023 he was good on both sides. That wasn’t the case in 2021 and 2022.

 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I have no idea what RZ says, which is great.

That said, as I mentioned earlier, in 2 of his 4 full years, he did show a bad split. 

2019 and 2023 he was good on both sides. That wasn’t the case in 2021 and 2022.

 

Right, nothing but some noise.  There is no significant splits in how AS hits as a SH.

RZ provided his career splits: 758/785 vs RH/LH respectively.  That's not significant.

His splits in 2023: 790/798 vs RH/LH respectively.

Fact is, he's a solid hitter from both sides of the plate, so you're just demonstrably wrong to keep implying he somehow doesn't hit well from both sides of the plate.

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have no idea what RZ says, which is great.

That said, as I mentioned earlier, in 2 of his 4 full years, he did show a bad split. 

2019 and 2023 he was good on both sides. That wasn’t the case in 2021 and 2022.

 

'21 he had only a 32 point difference and it was a reverse split. Did you mean a different year?

2022 indeed had a large 200 point split but he hit .720 vs RHP, so it was more that he crushed LHP that year than that he hit poorly vs RHP. In view of his career, 2022 looks like an anomaly. 2023 was in line with his overall career showing a slight bias toward LHP. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Sorry, I had originally responded to Frobby's post (in response to Sports Guy) where the hypothetical was Santander for a bullpen arm. It was also in the context of whether Santander is "replaceable" and whether trading him would involve a hit to the MLB team. I think it would because in a Santander trade we are likely getting prospects back (and likely not very good ones). 

I think Santander has value to the right team. I would expect a decent farm system to yield one top five and a couple other guys. Just cause the Orioles dont want to pay him doesnt mean that he has less value. As mentioned, hes a 30 homer 95 RBI guys thats a decent fielder.

I just used the Dodgers as they are an example of a free spender with an adequate system

 

I'd ask for Stone or Frasser, Wrobleski, and Y Fernandez. If they balk at that I'd settle for Ryan or Knack, Bruns, and Wrobleski.

I think there will be a drop off from Santander to Kjerstad at least initially. I think Kjerstad is the better option long term and the reason to not overpay Santander.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Right, nothing but some noise.  There is no significant splits in how AS hits as a SH.

RZ provided his career splits: 758/785 vs RH/LH respectively.  That's not significant.

His splits in 2023: 790/798 vs RH/LH respectively.

Fact is, he's a solid hitter from both sides of the plate, so you're just demonstrably wrong to keep implying he somehow doesn't hit well from both sides of the plate.

Oh I agree that it’s noise. I agree that in any given season, that data only matters so much largely because of sample sizes.

The thing is though, when you (not you you, but general you) make statements like “being a SHer is a huge advantage”, that’s not true if the hitter shows they don’t hit well from one side of the plate or another. 
 

Santander has shown, in 2 years, that his production on one side of the plate is subpar. My point is that in those seasons, it’s not an advantage that he is a SHer. In 2021, iirc, he had  693 OPs vs lefties. The Os would have been better off having a Ryan Mountcastle type guy platooning with him vs sending AS up there.

Im not trying to pick on AS here. For me, this is more of a general conversation about SHers. There is a reason Mullins got better giving up hitting RHed. Most players can’t do both well on a consistent level.

Now, if you get the guy who can do well consistently, that is where you have an advantage. 

[Aristotelian]

30 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think Santander has value to the right team. I would expect a decent farm system to yield one top five and a couple other guys. Just cause the Orioles dont want to pay him doesnt mean that he has less value. As mentioned, hes a 30 homer 95 RBI guys thats a decent fielder.

I just used the Dodgers as they are an example of a free spender with an adequate system

 

I'd ask for Stone or Frasser, Wrobleski, and Y Fernandez. If they balk at that I'd settle for Ryan or Knack, Bruns, and Wrobleski.

I think there will be a drop off from Santander to Kjerstad at least initially. I think Kjerstad is the better option long term and the reason to not overpay Santander.

 

 

Yes, I agree Santander probably has some value and can get a return and Dodgers are a good target. Still, the strong possibility of a QO/comp pick is a factor. If Dodgers don't cooperate, I would lean toward the keep case and would not be surprised if Elias does, too.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, I agree Santander probably has some value and can get a return and Dodgers are a good target. Still, the strong possibility of a QO/comp pick is a factor. If Dodgers don't cooperate, I would lean toward the keep case and would not be surprised if Elias does, too.

Me thinks your going to be disappointed. I don't believe the comp pick is as strong as you are boasting. So Elias would have to be sure he would draw interest as they dont want to pay him $21 million.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Yes, I agree Santander probably has some value and can get a return and Dodgers are a good target. Still, the strong possibility of a QO/comp pick is a factor. If Dodgers don't cooperate, I would lean toward the keep case and would not be surprised if Elias does, too.

Would you forfeit a pick to sign Santander to a long term deal?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you forfeit a pick to sign Santander to a long term deal?

Forget the pick…would you sign him to a 2-5 year deal at 20ishM a year to begin with, if you are the Os?

Edited October 31, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Forget the pick…would you sign him to a 2-5 year deal at 20ishM a year to begin with, if you are the Os?

If you're the O's, of course not.  But there are 29 other teams, and it only takes one.

[Pickles]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you forfeit a pick to sign Santander to a long term deal?

The 100th pick in the draft would not be the determining factor in such a deal.

[E-D-D-I-E]

On 10/27/2023 at 11:21 PM, DirtyBird said:

I say we have a problem. We need a 40 HR, .900 OPS, intimidating bat in the middle of the lineup - not just a bunch of streaky low .800’s OPS guys.

I would argue that the numbers put up by Santander can be made up by players on the field in 2024. Will Kjerstad and Westburg hit 5 homers combined? Will Mountcastle and Mullins miss significant amounts of time again? Will Henderson stink until June again (5 homers)? IMO, Santanders production will be made up from players on the roster and allow more roster flexibility.

[E-D-D-I-E]

On 10/28/2023 at 10:56 AM, wildcard said:

If something has happened in both of the last two years it is something that should be planned for in the up coming season.  I agree it might happen or not but if you are a GM I think it goes into your planning.

We will see if Elias follow's that strategy. There is no way we should trust John Means for more than 15 starts. 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The 100th pick in the draft would not be the determining factor in such a deal.

Braves spent 3M back in 2016 for the 76th pick.  Dodgers spent 2.75M for the 74th pick in 2015.

The pick in question also might be higher than 100.

Quote

A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period.

It's an additional cost.

[E-D-D-I-E]

23 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

He’s fine..he’s productive and he’s also replaceable.

 

On a team that has issues with left handed pitching, replacing him will be much tougher than replacing Santander. Mountcastle was one of the top hitter in the majors vs Lefties, in 23'. Also a big advantage with Soler or Hernandez over Santander.