Another Exercise - Give it a try

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you think that Holliday will be a better defensive SS than Henderson or Ortiz, or are you just one of these people who thinks Holliday will play SS “because they didn’t draft him to play 2B?”   If it’s the latter, that’s just stupid.  

I think its foolish and naive for anyone to not think where and why he was drafted 1st won’t come into play.

That being said, he obviously has to show he can be a ML caliber defensive SS, which they obviously believe he will be or else they may not have taken him #1.

I think Gunnar was a very good defensive SS but I didn’t find him to be an elite, GG guy either. He may develop into it and his arm covers up things but I think his defense gets slightly overrated on here.

I also don’t think Holliday has to be “better” than those guys.  What he has to do is be good because we also have to take into consideration, how much better is Gunnar at third be Mayo (or whoever else)? How much better at second is Westburg/Ortiz over Holliday or someone else.

People are getting too fixated on the idea of so and so will be better at position x but that isn’t the only consideration when building the team.

If Holliday continues to develop and he ends up as good at SS as the organization believes he will be and believed he would be when they drafted him, he will be the SS. 

If Holliday doesn’t improve over there and Mayo shows to be a very good defensive third baseman and Gunnar proves to be an all world defensive SS than things change.

But while I do think Mayo can be a ML third baseman, I don’t think he will be better than Gunnar and I think he will be our best first base option.

And I think Holliday will continue to improve at SS and show that he can be an average to above average defensive SS.

 

[TopGunnar]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  Looks like I’m first.

1 Holliday 2B

2 Westburg 3B

3 Henderson SS

4 Mayo 1B

5 Basallo DH

6 Rutschman C

7 Kjerstad RF

8 Beavers LF

9 Bradfield CF

 

Damn that’s a nice lineup 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think its foolish and naive for anyone to not think where and why he was drafted 1st won’t come into play.

That being said, he obviously has to show he can be a ML caliber defensive SS, which they obviously believe he will be or else they may not have taken him #1.

I think Gunnar was a very good defensive SS but I didn’t find him to be an elite, GG guy either. He may develop into it and his arm covers up things but I think his defense gets slightly overrated on here.

I also don’t think Holliday has to be “better” than those guys.  What he has to do is be good because we also have to take into consideration, how much better is Gunnar at third be Mayo (or whoever else)? How much better at second is Westburg/Ortiz over Holliday or someone else.

People are getting too fixated on the idea of so and so will be better at position x but that isn’t the only consideration when building the team.

If Holliday continues to develop and he ends up as good at SS as the organization believes he will be and believed he would be when they drafted him, he will be the SS. 

If Holliday doesn’t improve over there and Mayo shows to be a very good defensive third baseman and Gunnar proves to be an all world defensive SS than things change.

But while I do think Mayo can be a ML third baseman, I don’t think he will be better than Gunnar and I think he will be our best first base option.

And I think Holliday will continue to improve at SS and show that he can be an average to above average defensive SS.

 

I agree with one aspect of what you say.  The O’s will aim for the best overall defensive alignment, not just try to have the best defender at SS.   Those two things will usually go together, but not always.  The deltas at 2B and 3B factor in to the decision.   Fair point there.  Offense counts in determining who’s in the lineup (Ortiz or Westburg), but once that decision is made, best defensive alignment is the goal.  

I simply don’t buy any “they wouldn’t have drafted him first if they thought he’d only be a 2B” logic.   You’re trying to win games, not justify some past decision.   
 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree with one aspect of what you say.  The O’s will aim for the best overall defensive alignment, not just try to have the best defender at SS.   Those two things will usually go together, but not always.  The deltas at 2B and 3B factor in to the decision.   Fair point there.  Offense counts in determining who’s in the lineup (Ortiz or Westburg), but once that decision is made, best defensive alignment is the goal.  

I simply don’t buy any “they wouldn’t have drafted him first if they thought he’d only be a 2B” logic.   You’re trying to win games, not justify some past decision.   
 

Elias stated on draft day that Holliday being a ML SS is a reason they drafted him. Now, maybe they still take him, we don’t know that but we know they liked a lot of other guys. They paid a lot of money and passed up everyone in the draft for this kid and his position had a lot to do with it.

Those are just facts and ignoring facts just isn’t logical.

[RZNJ]

This whole narrative that they drafted Holliday #1 overall partly because they thought he would be a ML SS defensively and therefore that’s where he should play is INSANE.   I agree that if Holliday is virtually equal to Henderson defensively that it would make sense to have Henderson at 3B and Westburg at 2B.   I think everyone agrees with that.   Holliday appears very sure handed.   He’s only 19.   If he plays SS over Henderson it’s because he’s as good a SS or better NOT because he was drafted 1:1 as a SS.

I don’t think Henderson is a prima doña but he has claimed and earned the SS job.  He also sees himself as the SS.  I don’t care about Hollidays pedigree.  It would be nice if Henderson believed that Holliday should be the SS over him.

As we’ve heard many times before, part of the value of someone being a SS is because they usually have the athleticism to more easily move to another position.   Holliday moving to 2B doesn’t mean the Orioles made a mistake on draft day or that he isn’t a ML SS.  It means they have someone better there already.  That’s a good thing. To be determined. On merit.  Not draft position.

Edited November 5, 2023 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias stated on draft day that Holliday being a ML SS is a reason they drafted him. Now, maybe they still take him, we don’t know that but we know they liked a lot of other guys. They paid a lot of money and passed up everyone in the draft for this kid and his position had a lot to do with it.

Those are just facts and ignoring facts just isn’t logical.

You draft a guy who can play SS because that preserves the best options.  You don’t know on draft day who will be the better SS, Gunnar or Holliday.  You don’t know on draft day whether Ortiz will hit enough to justify being in the everyday lineup. But those things enter into who eventually plays SS.  

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You draft a guy who can play SS because that preserves the best options.  You don’t know on draft day who will be the better SS, Gunnar or Holliday.  You don’t know on draft day whether Ortiz will hit enough to justify being in the everyday lineup. But those things enter into who eventually plays SS.  

Let’s just say this…when the Orioles drafted Holliday, guarantee you that Elias would have said, i expect him to be our starting SS by OD 2025.0

Guarantee you that he felt that way.

Now, will Holliday work? Will he be a guy that tries to improve his defense or will he let that part of his game lapse?  My assumption that he ends up the SS has always been based around the idea that I think he improves and becomes as good defensively as they believed he could when they drafted him.

And sure, Ortiz was more of an unknown and Gunnar looked to be a third baseman when Holliday as drafted. Things have changed some..no doubt about that.

But Ortiz (who I doubt is even here to be involved in this discussion) is elite defensively at multiple positions and Gunnar is probably better at third vs SS even if he is good to very good at SS.  And he’s also more likely to grow out of SS too. 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

Holliday 2B

Cowser LF

Rutschman C

Henderson 3B

Kjerstad RF

Mayo 1B

Basallo DH

Ortiz SS

Bradfield CF

 

 

I like this with Westburg as IF/OF. Beavers, Norby and Cook could all be options and Horvath should be knocking on the door by '26. Lots of scenarios for a completely home grown lineup at all positions.

[Big Al]

1. LF Bradfield

2. 2b Holliday 

3. 3b Henderson

4. 1b Mayo 

5. DH Kjerstad

6. C  Rutchman

7. RF Cowser 

8. SS Ortiz 

9. CF Mullins

Bench: Westburg, Horvath, Basallo, Josenberger 

[Sydnor]

1. Henderson (3B)

2. Holliday (SS)

3. Rutschman (C)

4. Mayo (1B)

5. Santander (DH)

6. Kjerstad (RF)

7. Westburg (LF)

8. Cowser (CF)

9. Ortiz (2B)

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Orioles kept one of the outfielders in the Josh Reddick/Michael Brantley role in Houston (though I’d be most surprised by Mullins because of the aging curve and defense). Basically everything Elias has done to this point mirrors Houston, so I decided to keep Santander, but it could have been any of them. It’s also why I’m not sure he’ll give a three-year contract to a pitcher. I don’t think Houston gave more than a two-year deal to a starter (Morton got 2, Miley got 1, Sipp got 3, but he was a reliever and that was after he signed for 1 IIRC). I also just wanted to be a little different.

[The Goob]

1. Holliday - SS

2. Rautschman - C/DH

3. Henderson - 3B

4. Mayo - 1B/DH

5. Kjerstad - RF

6. Cowser - LF

7. Basallo - DH/1B/C

8. Westburg - 2B

9. Bradfield - CF

Bench - Catcher, Ortiz, 

The depth and athleticism of this lineup is phenomenal.  Minus Bradfield and Basallo, adding Santander/Hays, Mullins and Mountcastle I would not be surprised that this is the lineup by the end of this year.

[jamalshw]

This is really tough, but here's my guess. 

1. Jackson Holliday 2B - I guessed 2B, but could be SS. I think he's the real deal and thus will be in the top half of the order. He's not a massive thumper type and has speed so first makes sense, but ultimately could see him in any of the top 3 spots.

2. Adley Rutschman C - I know some have bumped him down and his offense wasn't quite what we hoped, but his OBP is still so strong that I want him near the top. 

3. Gunnar Henderson SS - If he builds off this year (particularly June onward), he's probably the best hitter on the team in 2024 and I'll take that to continue in 2026

4. Coby Mayo 1B - He's probably the biggest power bat in the system. I don't think he can stay at 3B, but I do believe in the bat and a switch to 1B probably goes well. I don't know that Mountcastle is gone by 2026, but Mayo has to play somewhere and I think we have an idea what Mountcastle is, and Mayo's upside is higher. 

5. Heston Kjerstad RF - I'm a big believer in Kjerstad's bat. I think the could be the thumper in the middle of the order. I toyed with him batting 4, but ultimately went 5 to add some R/L balance. 

6. Jordan Westburg 3B - Ultimately, Westburg may be a spot or two lower, but this is another R/L situation. 

7. Samuel Basallo C/DH - I think Basallo spends most of the year in AA in 2024 with a taste of AAA and then starts 2025 in AAA before making his debut later that summer. Ideally, he and Adley platoon at C and DH with both ultimately starting 150 games and staying fresh. That then leaves the backup catcher (or third catcher) to not play much at all. That may prove tricky to find a player to take the role, but we saw the team's love of having a random third catcher at times this year.

8. Colton Cowser LF - Cowser has some experience in CF which helps with the large LF. Maybe he hits higher, but it's hard to justify with the upside of the players ahead of him. I think what we saw from him in the Majors this year was a blip on the screen and he'll develop into at least a solid regular. 

9 Enrique Bradfield CF - This is the one I feel worst about. He had a good debut season (lets ignore the handful of games in Aberdeen). I think we may see a bit of a struggle in Aberdeen this year as we've seen with several prospects there. But he makes it to AA in the second half and spends 2025 split between Bowie and Norfolk. I could see him still in the minors to start 2026 with a mid year call up. In that case, maybe Cowser gets CF if he can prove it and Mountcastle is added in the lineup to give another RHH since only Mayo, Westburg and the switch hitting Rutschman hit from the right-side, making the team vulnerable to LHP. In that case, Mayo is tried in the OF. OR...I could see Norby in the OF. In either case, though the defense takes a hit. 

 

[EERinthe804]

1 Holliday 2B

2 Rutschman 1B

3 Henderson SS

4 Kjerstad RF

5 Mayo DH

6 Westburg 3B

7 Cowser LF

8 Basallo C

9 Bradfield CF

[CaptainRedbeard]

All of these lineups are hilariously stacked if the prospects continue on their expected trajectories. Some of them won’t, of course. But it’s fun to dream.

Holliday is already projected for a .350 OBP in 2024 by Steamer. Him and Adley will be an insanely good 1/2 combo at the top, and Holliday could easily develop more power too. And Cowser and Bradfield Jr. could certainly become high OBP guys worthy of top of the lineup spots.

Then Gunnar’s pretty great already anywhere 1-4, and each of Mayo, Kjerstad and Basallo could become your quintessential cleanup masher types. 

If all breaks the right way, Jordan Westburg could end up a 115ish wRC+ guy and never sniff higher than batting 7th (vs. RHP at least). 

[oriole]

CF - Bradfield

2B - Ortiz

SS - Holliday

1B - Kjerstad

3B - Mayo

DH - Basallo

LF - Beavers

C - Willems 

RF - Rhodes

 

Just an alternative idea where some current cornerstone players are traded to keep the engine running. Gotta keep the small market O’s at the bottom of the league in payroll and arbitration could be too much to handle for some super stars. Obviously this exercise doesn’t allow me to speculate on how those potential trades would look like.