Bowden: Burnes potential suitors including Os

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

He only had a year remaining but had only made 7 starts, with a 5.80 ERA, before suffering a broken arm that ended his 2019 season.  So, though he’d been an ace in the past, his status was a bit diminished at the time of that trade.  

Hmmm. I think I'm stumped then. Everyone else I thought of had two years left on their contract. It seems like Burnes might be a bit unique i that regard. 

[Billy F-Face3]

According to Baseball Trade Simulator, the Trade value of Burnes is 33.8.  The trade value of Coby Mayo is 43.7.

We could probably trade Mayo for Burnes plus get a couple of prospects back in return. Would any of you guys trade Mayo for Burnes?

That's a tough one for me. Burnes is a legit Major League Ace.

The Brewers need 1B, 3B, and 2B most of all. They want a good bat. We could fill their needs and get an Ace in return.

Playing around with the Trade Similator, it says a even deal for Burnes could get done by offering Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Ramon Urias, and then one of either Cade Povich/Bryan Baker. If we took Ortiz out of the deal, we could probably get it done with Povich included in that plus Baker and someone like McDermott, or Wells, or a multitude of other players around the same trade value listed (even Noah DeNoyer). Jud Fabian is also another option to work with, although the Brewers already have a number of outfield prospects they can develop.

[ChosenOne21]

5 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

According to Baseball Trade Simulator, the Trade value of Burnes is 33.8.  The trade value of Coby Mayo is 43.7.

We could probably trade Mayo for Burnes plus get a couple of prospects back in return. Would any of you guys trade Mayo for Burnes?

That's a tough one for me. Burnes is a legit Major League Ace.

The Brewers need 1B, 3B, and 2B most of all. They want a good bat. We could fill their needs and get an Ace in return.

Playing around with the Trade Similator, it says a even deal for Burnes could get done by offering Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Ramon Urias, and then one of either Cade Povich/Bryan Baker. If we took Ortiz out of the deal, we could probably get it done with Povich included in that plus Baker and someone like McDermott, or Wells, or a multitude of other players around the same trade value listed (even Noah DeNoyer). Jud Fabian is also another option to work with, although the Brewers already have a number of outfield prospects they can develop.

That's one of the problems with trade simulator: five eights isn't as good as a 40. Value concentrated in a single player is so much better than value spread out. The Brewers aren't doing the Norby+ deal. They'd probably do the Mayo one.

[ThisIsBirdland]

42 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

That's one of the problems with trade simulator: five eights isn't as good as a 40. Value concentrated in a single player is so much better than value spread out. The Brewers aren't doing the Norby+ deal. They'd probably do the Mayo one.

The calc giving Cade Povich the same value as Bryan Baker is also a pretty good demonstration of its worth.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

That's one of the problems with trade simulator: five eights isn't as good as a 40. Value concentrated in a single player is so much better than value spread out. The Brewers aren't doing the Norby+ deal. They'd probably do the Mayo one.

Depends who you talk to. There are guys insisting that Norby has lost any value due to age/being stuck at AAA. Even though he’s dropped out of the top 100 status in some poles.

Honestly, Elias isn’t giving up any of our top 5 in a trade for one year of any player. Our secondary guys would be top 5 in most teams prospect rankings. Fans dont get that and all you have to do is look at feedback on Twitter from White Sox fans about him and Ortiz. You’d think Ortiz is destined to be a utility infielder best case rather than a top 50 prospect and potential an all star SS. Plus they blame his age for another reason to devalue him like he’s 27.

 

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

The calc giving Cade Povich the same value as Bryan Baker is also a pretty good demonstration of its worth.

Not sure why that's a problem. Povich has a ton of question marks and Baker is an above average reliever with many years of team control.

If you'd rather have Povich in the organization than Baker, that's fine. But when you bake in the risk, I don't think the trade values valuation is necessarily wrong.

[forphase1]

7 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

 

We could probably trade Mayo for Burnes plus get a couple of prospects back in return. Would any of you guys trade Mayo for Burnes?

No way.  Not trading Mayo for ANY 1 year rental. 

[Roll Tide]

18 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Not sure why that's a problem. Povich has a ton of question marks and Baker is an above average reliever with many years of team control.

If you'd rather have Povich in the organization than Baker, that's fine. But when you bake in the risk, I don't think the trade values valuation is necessarily wrong.

Baker is not an above average middle reliever…..maybe average but he spent a good part of the season in AAA

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Not sure why that's a problem. Povich has a ton of question marks and Baker is an above average reliever with many years of team control.
 

I certainly wouldn’t say Baker was “above average” last year.  There’s a reason he spent almost all of the final two months of the season in the minors.  

Povich has way more upside than Baker, but also carries a lot of risk.  
 

[interloper]

Baker is the poster child for reliever volatility.

[ChosenOne21]

55 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Baker is not an above average middle reliever…..maybe average but he spent a good part of the season in AAA

Average reliever ERA: 4.17
Baker: 3.60

Average reliever K/9: 9.1
Baker: 10.2

Average reliever HR/9: 1.09
Baker: 0.80

Average reliever WHIP: 1.324
Baker: 1.267

I will admit Baker gives up an above average amount of walks, but the overall package is clearly above average for a relief pitcher. As to whether or not he's an above average middle reliever, I guess that depends on how you define that. A quick glance shows his ERA to be average for all pitchers who pitched in the sixth or seventh inning.

I can't imagine there are many if any bullpens where he wouldn't have a role.

Edited December 9, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

No way.  Not trading Mayo for ANY 1 year rental. 

Agreed. Burnes is good, but long term this could end up being this generation’s John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander trade. 

Maybe if there was a real chance at signing Burnes to a contract, but I don’t see that happening. 

[ChosenOne21]

55 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I certainly wouldn’t say Baker was “above average” last year.  There’s a reason he spent almost all of the final two months of the season in the minors.  

Povich has way more upside than Baker, but also carries a lot of risk.  
 

I would guess the average reliever spends some time in the minors each year

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Not sure why that's a problem. Povich has a ton of question marks and Baker is an above average reliever with many years of team control.

If you'd rather have Povich in the organization than Baker, that's fine. But when you bake in the risk, I don't think the trade values valuation is necessarily wrong.

Forget the trade simulator.  Would you trade Cade Povich to get Bryan Baker?

[ChosenOne21]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Forget the trade simulator.  Would you trade Cade Povich to get Bryan Baker?

Personally I'd rather roll the die on Povich, but I can imagine a team not really believing in him and wanting to stabilize their bullpen.