Cease vs everyone else

[Chicago White Sox]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I tend to agree but guys like, for example, Norby, Stowers and Povich have upside to be impact players but there is obviously more risk and less of a certainty.

Do they want 1-2 guys with 3-5 WAR potential or do they want 3-5 guys with 1-5 WAR potential?  
 

 

Who are these second tier prospects with 5 WAR potential?

[Chicago White Sox]

Wow, that Nola contract just shows how costly high end pitching will be this winter.  No doubt Nola has a longer track record, but he is coming off a very similar season to Cease and just got a monster deal.  He may have even taken less to go back to Philadelphia and still exceeded MLBTR & Fangraphs’ contract projections.

Also, FWIW, Nightengale is reporting that Dodgers are pursing Cease.  While I’m sure that is our side trying to create leverage through the media, it does suggest there are active discussions happening and that a potential deal could come before the Winter meetings.

[24fps]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wow, that Nola contract just shows how costly high end pitching will be this winter.  No doubt Nola has a longer track record, but he is coming off a very similar season to Cease and just got a monster deal.  He may have even taken less to go back to Philadelphia and still exceeded MLBTR & Fangraphs’ contract projections.

Also, FWIW, Nightengale is reporting that Dodgers are pursing Cease.  While I’m sure that is our side trying to create leverage through the media, it does suggest there are active discussions happening and that a potential deal could come before the Winter meetings.

Spotrac has Cease getting $8.3 million in 2024 with another year of control afterward.  That's pretty cheap, and given that, my guess that a dozen teams will at least check in with 4-5 showing genuine interest.  I think the Sox will get good value regardless and the only question is which way Getz wants to go.  The O's have lots of flexibility to put together different kinds of deals which is why I like their chances.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Who are these second tier prospects with 5 WAR potential?

No, I mean you if still get a guy like Cowser or Ortiz but the rest of the deal is filled in with the larger question marks/ML players.

But guys like Norby and Stowers can be 2-3 WAR guys and that’s valuable.

When you see larger deals in MLB, you almost always see a ML player in the deal. We, as fans, may not like that but it happens and it happens quite frequently.  I’m guessing most WS fans would have rather have gotten some kind of a lottery ticket prospect vs Nicky Lopez but the team valued that Ml contributor.

Will they keep up with that same thought?  Is a guy like Dean Kremer valuable to them? A decent starter who eats innings and has a lot of service time. I’m sure you would rather have Connor Norby but again, the ML team may not feel that way.

 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wow, that Nola contract just shows how costly high end pitching will be this winter.  No doubt Nola has a longer track record, but he is coming off a very similar season to Cease and just got a monster deal.  He may have even taken less to go back to Philadelphia and still exceeded MLBTR & Fangraphs’ contract projections.

Also, FWIW, Nightengale is reporting that Dodgers are pursing Cease.  While I’m sure that is our side trying to create leverage through the media, it does suggest there are active discussions happening and that a potential deal could come before the Winter meetings.

You wonder if the WS wait for some of the top FA to sign?

[Orioles0615]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I’d offer quantity ….Cowser, Willems, Povich, Norby, and Stowers

Cowser is quantity now ?

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Cowser is quantity now ?

He’s the key piece as opposed to giving up 2 of our top 5. 

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You wonder if the WS wait for some of the top FA to sign?

I think this deal makes it pretty clear what free agent pitching is going to cost and my guess is many teams quickly pivot to the trade market to get ahead of the curve there.  Obviously there could be a bit more leverage by waiting, but I’d rather move quickly with a larger pool of theoretical buyers if I feel I have the more desirable trade asset (which I believe we have if the Mariners aren’t dealing their young arms).

[Just Regular]

I think Cease is high enough up the talent chain, he'll basically get a moment as "best available" once Ohtani-Yamamoto-Snell land.

Its probably due diligence for Cease bidders to gain clarification on whether MIL is moving Burnes, and TB Glasnow.     

[OriolesMagic83]

45 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think this deal makes it pretty clear what free agent pitching is going to cost and my guess is many teams quickly pivot to the trade market to get ahead of the curve there.  Obviously there could be a bit more leverage by waiting, but I’d rather move quickly with a larger pool of theoretical buyers if I feel I have the more desirable trade asset (which I believe we have if the Mariners aren’t dealing their young arms).

Elias will do the old Orioles standard of percolating until all the good players are signed or traded. 

[Pickles]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Elias will do the old Orioles standard of percolating until all the good players are signed or traded. 

Guess we'll just have to be satisfied with another 100 win season.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Guess we'll just have to be satisfied with another 100 win season.

And first round exit in the playoffs.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

And first round exit in the playoffs.

The fact is, having a stud FA starter wouldn’t have won us that Rangers series.   And getting one now or not won’t necessarily determine whether we win a playoff series next year.  I’d like to get someone, but making the playoffs and then getting somewhere depends on a whole array of things going well, and no one thing will decide it.  

[dystopia]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The fact is, having a stud FA starter wouldn’t have won us that Rangers series.   And getting one now or not won’t necessarily determine whether we win a playoff series next year.  I’d like to get someone, but making the playoffs and then getting somewhere depends on a whole array of things going well, and no one thing will decide it.  

Agree 100%. Amazing how “the playoffs are a crapshoot” suddenly went out the window. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Just now, dystopia said:

Agree 100%. Amazing how “the playoffs are a crapshoot” suddenly went out the window. 

Amazing how 100 win seasons are guaranteed from 2023 forward.