Cease vs everyone else

[sportsfan8703]

Who is our 2025 OF currently?

Santa is a FA after this season, and the safe play was to let him just play out the upcoming season, and hope he gives us great production. A QO comp pick would be dream scenario.

Mullins, and Hays, will be FA after the 2025 season. It does not make sense to let them just play out things and hope for a QO comp pick at best. It would make the most sense to trade them next offseason. 

So 2025 is looking like,

CF - EBJ

LF - Cowser

RF - Kjerstad

In the mix - Stowers, Norby, Beavers, Fabian, Hilliard

That’s a lot of talent that we have to replace after this season. We’re not just going to run out and sign a FA COF. This is why Elias can’t trade any of our top 5 and EBJ. They fill immediate holes. 

Cease makes a lot of sense. It’s 50/50. A calculated gamble each way. Would we rather gamble on one of Wells/Irvin/Hall being our 5th SP till July 31, or that Dylan Beavers pops off and is ready to be our OD LF/RF in 2025?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Who is our 2025 OF currently?

Santa is a FA after this season, and the safe play was to let him just play out the upcoming season, and hope he gives us great production. A QO comp pick would be dream scenario.

Mullins, and Hays, will be FA after the 2025 season. It does not make sense to let them just play out things and hope for a QO comp pick at best. It would make the most sense to trade them next offseason. 

So 2025 is looking like,

CF - EBJ

LF - Cowser

RF - Kjerstad

In the mix - Stowers, Norby, Beavers, Fabian, Hilliard

That’s a lot of talent that we have to replace after this season. We’re not just going to run out and sign a FA COF. This is why Elias can’t trade any of our top 5 and EBJ. They fill immediate holes. 

Cease makes a lot of sense. It’s 50/50. A calculated gamble each way. Would we rather gamble on one of Wells/Irvin/Hall being our 5th SP till July 31, or that Dylan Beavers pops off and is ready to be our OD LF/RF in 2025?

He clearly can trade guys.  Saying he can’t is flat out wrong.

There are a lot of ways they could acquire an OFer if they need to. I’m not concerned about that and no one else should be either.

[Bird Lady]

What are the chances of Cease being Jack Flaherty II?

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He clearly can trade guys.  Saying he can’t is flat out wrong.

There are a lot of ways they could acquire an OFer if they need to. I’m not concerned about that and no one else should be either.

He can’t trade Cowser. Cowser is needed so much for LF. Our LF is so big that it basically requires a CF to play there. So while Cowser isn’t a CF, he can be a Hays level LF. 

I wish we would just hand out FA bucks, but that ain’t happening. I think we know what the CWS want. We’ve been negotiating with them since last year’s trade deadline. They have an idea of what we’re offering. Glasnow, and the Japanese pitcher need to go likely before the market on Cease heats up. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

He can’t trade Cowser. Cowser is needed so much for LF. Our LF is so big that it basically requires a CF to play there. So while Cowser isn’t a CF, he can be a Hays level LF. 

I wish we would just hand out FA bucks, but that ain’t happening. I think we know what the CWS want. We’ve been negotiating with them since last year’s trade deadline. They have an idea of what we’re offering. Glasnow, and the Japanese pitcher need to go likely before the market on Cease heats up. 

Yea, he obviously can trade Cowser. Saying he can’t makes zero sense.

Beavers is a guy some think could play CF..maybe he’s the LFer in 2025?  Maybe they trade for another OFer?  Maybe they just sign someone?

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Bird Lady said:

What are the chances of Cease being Jack Flaherty II?

Not very high.

[sportsfan8703]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, he obviously can trade Cowser. Saying he can’t makes zero sense.

Beavers is a guy some think could play CF..maybe he’s the LFer in 2025?  Maybe they trade for another OFer?  Maybe they just sign someone?

 

I don’t think Beavers can play CF. I doubt that Kjerstad or Beavers can handle LF in OPACY. That’s why Cowser has so much value to us. He’s LH, which helps us use the dimensions of our ballpark, and he’s athletic enough to be a Hays/Brady like LF. 

We can’t just say we’re going to trot out Norby, Mayo, Beavers, and Kjerstad in LF at OPACY. 

When saying we won’t trade away Cowser, it’s not just his bat and prospect ranking that is too much to trade, but he’s our best/only fit in our system for LF in the future. 

[RZNJ]

If you see what they aren’t doing with Santander I’d say there is a very good chance that at least Mullins and maybe Hays are still here in 25.   I do think, absent a trade, that probably Kjerstad and Cowser are in that mix along with maybe Mayo.  I think it’s very optimistic to think EBJ will be ready but it’s possible.  Beavers should be in the picture as well.   
 

With Beavers, Kjerstad, and Cowser likely corner outfielders and the possibility that Mayo might even get a try in RF there is definitely depth enough to include one in a trade.    On the other hand, if Elias feels strongly enough about certain prospects not to include them in certain trades he gets my benefit of the doubt.

 

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If you see what they aren’t doing with Santander I’d say there is a very good chance that at least Mullins and maybe Hays are still here in 25.   I do think, absent a trade, that probably Kjerstad and Cowser are in that mix along with maybe Mayo.  I think it’s very optimistic to think EBJ will be ready but it’s possible.  Beavers should be in the picture as well.   
 

With Beavers, Kjerstad, and Cowser likely corner outfielders and the possibility that Mayo might even get a try in RF there is definitely depth enough to include one in a trade.    On the other hand, if Elias feels strongly enough about certain prospects not to include them in certain trades he gets my benefit of the doubt.

 

I don’t think Kjerstad, Beavers, or Mayo, can cover enough ground to play LF in OPACY. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[Orioles0615]

21 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

I'm losing faith that we're going to acquire a TOR pitcher. I'm coming around to the idea of just signing someone like Hyun Jin Ryu to a one-year deal for like 12-15 million. 

Ryu > Gibson > Lyles 

Just keep getting slightly better vets on one-year deals. Not my first choice, but I could live with it.

1. Bradish

2. Grayson

3. Means

4. Ryu

5. Kremer

Hall, Wells, Irvin to the pen. 

 

In 2 years they will have to bit the bullet then with this trend lol

 

Lyles- F tier picther

Gibson - D Tier

Ryu/Wacha - C  Tier

[RZNJ]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think Kjerstad, Beavers, and Mayo, can cover enough ground to play LF in OPACY. 

I don’t think Kjerstad or Mayo are LF options there.  Cowser and Beavers definitely are.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I don’t think Beavers can play CF. I doubt that Kjerstad or Beavers can handle LF in OPACY. That’s why Cowser has so much value to us. He’s LH, which helps us use the dimensions of our ballpark, and he’s athletic enough to be a Hays/Brady like LF. 

We can’t just say we’re going to trot out Norby, Mayo, Beavers, and Kjerstad in LF at OPACY. 

When saying we won’t trade away Cowser, it’s not just his bat and prospect ranking that is too much to trade, but he’s our best/only fit in our system for LF in the future. 

Saying Beavers can’t handle it, based on scouting reports, is just wrong.  At this point, you are just throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks. You aren’t using facts and claiming things as absolutes with very little to back things up.

[RZNJ]

Baseball America on Beavers which, obviously, assumes most home park LF are the easiest spot.

He's a plus runner who is even quicker underway and has a plus arm, with the potential to adequately handle either center or right in the majors.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Saying Beavers can’t handle it, based on scouting reports, is just wrong.  At this point, you are just throwing stuff at the wall and seeing what sticks. You aren’t using facts and claiming things as absolutes with very little to back things up.

Watch the videos of him. We have a unique LF. It requires a Hays/Cowser type. That’s saying that I think Cowser is slightly below Hays. Hays is a great fit for our park. 

Beavers is tall and lanky. He doesn’t have the start ability to get big jumps, nor the foot speed, to play LF in OPACY. Sure, he can probably play LF in 90% of other parks, but we play 81 home games in OPACY. 

As a side note, Elias has drafted to fit the new dimensions. Cowser and EBJ our great fits and defensively will be fine replacements for Gold Glovers in Hays/Mullins.  

[StottyByNature]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 No one thinks Cease is definitely the missing piece.  He’s beyond stupid to suggest that.(I know you aren’t saying that)

That said, Cease absolutely could be the missing piece.  
 

The reason I want Cease is the upside he has and his ability to miss bats, stay healthy and he has a level as a starter that many haven’t achieved.

Chances are, he won’t get to that level again but his chance of being dominant in a small sample size in October are higher than many other pitchers because of his stuff and upside.

We know this team has enough to be a playoff team. We know this team has a lot more talent coming and the team is likely to get more talented over the next 1-2 years than it was last year.

But we also know that we likely aren’t producing  a high upside starter over the course of the next 1-2 years and another high upside starter is what this team needs for a playoff run.

Cease is no guarantee and again, it’s dumb for anyone to suggest he is or that it is what anyone is saying but he’s an obtainable guy that could provide this team exactly what it needs, so he’s worth the risk.

It’s ok to have more than 1 or 2 guys with TOR ability. It’s ok to increase the margin for error and have upper echelon depth in  case of injury or unexpected poorer performance. There are no guarantees for anything. No guarantee Bradish keeps it up or GRod has a big full season or that the Os get more out of Cease. But the more guys you have with that type of ability, the better your chances are.

Going back to the thought of “winning a trade”. While it would be nice, that shouldn’t be the focus. We are past that. We are at the point where winning a trade should be defined by us making a move that makes us better and gives us a better chance to win in October. We give up a little more value to do that, so be it. 

For all the ass kissing people do to Elias, they should feel confident that he can replace 25 year old MIers and others prospects that are in that 6-20 range. He has proven he can do it. 
 

The top top guys are the ones that are harder to replace but when you have depth in those areas and you have a need, you trade out of it. 

Well said, I agree with all of this.  Any trade is a risk/reward, but you know what else is?  Counting on a prospect to become a good big leaguer.  Dylan Cease has a demonstrated track record and is a rare case where he has the stuff to come with an elite upside.  High floor and also high ceiling is unusual.  

No one knows if he is definitely going to be the missing piece and the baseball playoffs are a crapshoot anyway.  But we can say with certainty that the O's did not have the starting pitching depth last year to make a confident run in the postseason.  Cease would give us stability for the regular season and high-end potential in the postseason.  While we won 101 games last year we outplayed our run differential.  Elias is smart not to break in too many rookies at once so trading from this wave makes perfect sense.  He has three late-first rounders this year to replenish some of that talent.