Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

[forphase1]

Nothing has changed.  Elias knew all of these facts that are new to US.  What wasn't a good deal for Cease a month ago STILL isn't a good deal for Cease, just because the natives are restless.  What WE know has changed, that's it.  This does not make a Cease trade more or less likely than it was before we happened to know about both Bradish and Means.  

[24fps]

32 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

I personally care about Orioles baseball from 2025-2030 enough to not offer excess value for Dylan Cease in a desperation move. Not to say a move isn't there to be made, but just like before, they need to be considerate of short term and long term priorities.

This is a good point. To the degree there’s a silver lining to this news, it’s first day of Spring Training and there are still enough external options available to have a variety of choices on how to deal with what’s clearly a substantial hit.

Burnes ended any willingness I had to overpay, even a little, for Cease. Fair value deal?  Sure, but otherwise I would rather look for a stopgap. 

[sportsfan8703]

 We did just settle with O'Hearn in Arbtration and negotiated to gain a team option for next year.  Could that be a pre-cursor to trading Kjerstad in a Cease deal?  

Edited February 15 by sportsfan8703

[ThisIsBirdland]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

 We did just settle with O'Hearn in Arbtration and have a team option on next year.  Could that be a pre-cursor to trading Kjerstad in a Cease deal?  

Arbitration hearings/settlements are just getting resolved right now.

[sportsfan8703]

Kjerstad, Norby, and the #32 pick for Cease.  

I can't find if the #32 pick can be traded, one way or the other.  I'm assuming that since its awarded, like a comp pick, that it should be able to be dealt.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

12 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Nothing has changed.  Elias knew all of these facts that are new to US.  What wasn't a good deal for Cease a month ago STILL isn't a good deal for Cease, just because the natives are restless.  What WE know has changed, that's it.  This does not make a Cease trade more or less likely than it was before we happened to know about both Bradish and Means.  

Yup, the price was already too high for Elias and it just went up, so the Bradish replacement (assuming there even is one) is clearly not going to be Dylan Cease, but rather someone like Michael Lorenzen.

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Kjerstad, Norby, and the #32 pick for Cease.  

I can't find if the #32 pick can be traded, one way or the other.  I'm assuming that since its awarded, like a comp pick, that it should be able to be dealt.  

Almost certainly wouldn't be enough, and I don't think the O's want to move Kjerstad. Could be wrong though, just my hunch.

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Almost certainly wouldn't be enough, and I don't think the O's want to move Kjerstad. Could be wrong though, just my hunch.

Right now Kjerstad is ticketed for AAA.  He's no longer a luxury.  Just like Norby.  We need to use these prospects as currency now.  Can't afford not to, unless we're going to pony up for Snell/Montgomery.  

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Yup, the price was already too high for Elias and it just went up, so the Bradish replacement (assuming there even is one) is clearly not going to be Dylan Cease, but rather someone like Michael Lorenzen.

I wouldn't say the price definitely went up. 

If the White Sox are still inclined to move Cease, they may be willing to lower their ask as we get closer to OD. 

Or not.  But I wouldn't say their price went up, based on the O's internal situation. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Kjerstad, Norby, and the #32 pick for Cease.  

I can't find if the #32 pick can be traded, one way or the other.  I'm assuming that since its awarded, like a comp pick, that it should be able to be dealt.  

If the White Sox get realistic on what return to expect for Cease that could do it, but I think they are going to ask for one pitcher to be included in the package.

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Right now Kjerstad is ticketed for AAA.  He's no longer a luxury.  Just like Norby.  We need to use these prospects as currency now.  Can't afford not to, unless we're going to pony up for Snell/Montgomery.  

No, we don't.  No reason to panic.  Elias knew about the injuries long before today and had ample time to make moves if he was going to do so.  When you panic you make mistakes and bad choices.  Panicking and trading a possible future star isn't a good move to make.  If Kjerstad was off limits before today, this news being broken to the public doesn't change that.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

No, we don't.  No reason to panic.  Elias knew about the injuries long before today and had ample time to make moves if he was going to do so.  When you panic you make mistakes and bad choices.  Panicking and trading a possible future star isn't a good move to make.  If Kjerstad was off limits before today, this news being broken to the public doesn't change that.  

We can be prompted to make a move and not panic at the same time.  Kjerstad and Norby are spare parts for this season.  Why jeopardize a year where we have Adley, Gunnar, and Holliday, all on the same team?  Look at the pick won with Gunnar as a bonus.  Then hope that Holliday can win a pick.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I wouldn't say the price definitely went up. 

If the White Sox are still inclined to move Cease, they may be willing to lower their ask as we get closer to OD. 

Or not.  But I wouldn't say their price went up, based on the O's internal situation. 

Getz had no real leverage before the Bradish injury, now he does. 

If Elias reaches back out to him now, he would be a fool to not try to take advantage of the situation.

[ThisIsBirdland]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Right now Kjerstad is ticketed for AAA.  He's no longer a luxury.  Just like Norby.  We need to use these prospects as currency now.  Can't afford not to, unless we're going to pony up for Snell/Montgomery.  

Why is Kjerstad ticketed for AAA? I think the majority of projections have him making the team.

Holliday, Mayo and Basallo may all be ticketed for the minors. Should we include them in trades for Cease?

It's not all about 2024. It may very well be some sort of trade/signing or a mix and match of Wells + Irvin with McDermott/Povich/Johnson stepping up as needed. But I'm doubtful it'll be a move of desperation.

With that said, over on the WS board (it's as insufferable as you'd expect), their one insider who has always been reasonable with our posters caught my attention with this: