Cease vs everyone else

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, he’s definitely ahead of Means and has the upside to be ahead of everyone.

Your second paragraph is a bit of a strawman. First of all, it’s one game. In any one game, things happen both Lucky and not lucky.

However, there has been countless research done showing pitchers can’t control balls in play. There is something to be said about them being able to control contact but not placement and regardless of both of those, if the defense sucks behind you, it obviously will hurt you. That’s not even debatable. 

A ball with a lower exit velocity is more likely to be an out than a higher one. That’s not debatable either, but you saying a pitcher can’t control balls in play contradicts that. 
 

Of course the Means game I referred to was just one game, but that’s not the point and you didn’t really answer the question I posed. The question was, did Means actually pitch a good game or was it all the result of luck? I think everyone would say the former. Similarly, if a pitcher gives up 8 runs in 2 innings, did he just get incredibly unlucky or did he just make bad pitches? Probably the latter. 
 

And speaking of strawmans, nobody said bad defense wouldn’t hurt a pitcher. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

A ball with a lower exit velocity is more likely to be an out than a higher one. That’s not debatable either, but you saying a pitcher can’t control balls in play contradicts that. 
 

 

Are you suggesting DiPS isn't valid?

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Are you suggesting DiPS isn't valid?

No, did I misgender it?

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I get that the White Sox are going full rebuild, so Cease should be available. But IMO there are better, more reliable pitchers out there that should be on our trade radar. George Kirby and Logan Gilbert on the Mariners, for example.  

Kirby has 5 years of service remaining, Gilbert has 4.   The price for either would be extremely high, significantly higher than Cease IMO because of the service time differential.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

No, did I misgender it?

I have no idea what you mean by this.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

A ball with a lower exit velocity is more likely to be an out than a higher one. That’s not debatable either, but you saying a pitcher can’t control balls in play contradicts that. 
 

Of course the Means game I referred to was just one game, but that’s not the point and you didn’t really answer the question I posed. The question was, did Means actually pitch a good game or was it all the result of luck? I think everyone would say the former. Similarly, if a pitcher gives up 8 runs in 2 innings, did he just get incredibly unlucky or did he just make bad pitches? Probably the latter. 
 

And speaking of strawmans, nobody said bad defense wouldn’t hurt a pitcher. 

He was lucky…and he was good. People seem to think luck is a bad word. There is always luck.

But you eliminate the element of luck by doing things that can control well.

Look I get it, you don’t want to put much weight on newer school stats but that doesn’t diminish the stat. 
 

Cease is a very good starter with upside to be more. He is under contract for 2 more years and  is attainable for a team that needs pitching and won’t pay big money for it.  He is a clear and obvious strong target for the Os and one I believe they will go after, as they reportedly did at the deadline.

The other thing that people are forgetting is that he has been pitching for what is arguably the worst organization in the sport. Get him to a real organization who is doing a good job with pitchers and you can likely get more out of him.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

Kirby has 5 years of service remaining, Gilbert has 4.   The price for either would be extremely high, significantly higher than Cease IMO because of the service time differential.  

Plus, the Mariners aren’t desperate.  They just missed the playoffs and have one of the youngest, deepest rotations in baseball.   

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is a flawed way at looking at Cease or any SP for that matter.  First, ERA is a bad metric to evaluate pitchers IMO, especially ones who play in offensive-oriented parks and behind shitty defenses.  You need to adjust for those uncontrollable factors or you’ll be understating Cease’s production.

Second, Dylan’s pitch mix changed substantially in 2022 with much heavier usage of his slider.  That slider was the most valuable pitch in baseball in 2022 per Statcast and by wide margin.  Not sure you can luck your way into a pitch that dominant.  And what he did his first few seasons where he was still developing is mostly irrelevant to his go-forward expectations.

At the end of the day, GMs will have to decide whether Cease can regain the dominance of his slider.  My view is if you can spin a pitch to that ability over 180 innings, it doesn’t simply go away.  The spin rate on his slider last year was very similar to 2022, but the shape of it was different.  His command was also off and he wasn’t locating it quite as well.  The good news is his extension and release point were different last year and those are mechanical things than can be fixed.  

Obviously there is no guarantee there, but this why teams have biometric specialists to help identify such opportunities.  My guess is most front offices in need of SP see a TOR starter who they can get for 75 cents on the dollar.  It will require taking on some risk, but the price for two cheap years of a Cy Young type pitcher coming off a great season would be far higher than what Cease will ultimately go for.

And I haven’t seen it stated here, but Dylan is a guy who would almost certainly receive a QO after the 2025 season if healthy.  So on top of whatever he gives you, there is a strong chance (I’d put it at ~75% given his durability) of receiving a 1st round pick if he were leave in 2026.  That should also be reflected in the broader assessment.

It's no just his ERA. There are plenty of other underlying numbers / stats that point to Cease being a average pitcher and not a Cy Young / TOR pitcher. Guarenteed Rate Field played like a middle of the pack (14th overall) hitter's park last season so I really don't don't understand that part of your argument. Or the argument about the White Sox defense either. They ranked 14th overall last season which, for context, was just one spot ahead of the Orioles. So I certainly wouldn't say the odds were stacked against him from a home stadium / defense standpoint. 

The most obvious thing that will always make Cease's success unsustainable are his walks. When you consistently flirt with a BB/9 rate of 4 there's no margin for error in your game. So instead of blaming the defense and ballpark for his lack of success maybe you should point a finger at him for putting all those runners on base in the first place. And he's shown no signs of being able to improve on this throughout his career. 

Also there have been plenty of one hit wonder pitchers over the years. Some have even won Cy Youngs. It really would be foolish to ignore the amount that good luck sometimes factor into the equation. And we can't predict the future, but we can make educated guesses based on statistical data. And all the data points to Cease's 2022 season being an outlier. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's no just his ERA. There are plenty of other underlying numbers / stats that point to Cease being a average pitcher and not a Cy Young / TOR pitcher. Guarenteed Rate Field played like a middle of the pack (14th overall) hitter's park last season so I really don't don't understand that part of your argument. Or the argument about the White Sox defense either. They ranked 14th overall last season which, for context, was just one spot ahead of the Orioles. So I certainly wouldn't say the odds were stacked against him from a home stadium / defense standpoint. 

The most obvious thing that will always make Cease's success unsustainable are his walks. When you consistently flirt with a BB/9 rate of 4 there's no margin for error in your game. So instead of blaming the defense and ballpark for his lack of success maybe you should point a finger at him for putting all those runners on base in the first place. And he's shown no signs of being able to improve on this throughout his career. 

Also there have been plenty of one hit wonder pitchers over the years. Some have even won Cy Youngs. It really would be foolish to ignore the amount that good luck sometimes factor into the equation. And we can't predict the future, but we can make educated guesses based on statistical data. And all the data points to Cease's 2022 season being an outlier. 

We can agree that Cease has been a full time starter since 2021 and of the three seasons, 2022 is the outlier, as he enters his 4th full season at the age of 28.  

[Moose Milligan]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, he is definitely realistically obtainable. There is no doubt that they are shopping him and no doubt the Os can trade for him. 
 

And no one has ever stated that his 2022 season isn’t an outlier. If people thought his 2022 season was the norm, there would be a lot more on the table than what is being discussed.

 

As @Can_of_corn pointed out, the GM that was shopping him is gone.  Looking at this objectively, we don't know if whoever's in charge now will be shopping him or not.  If the old GM was there, I'd be more inclined to agree.

In regards to 2022, correct.  

[dystopia]

Calling him average is rather harsh. I’ll say that much. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

We can agree that Cease has been a full time starter since 2021 and of the three seasons, 2022 is the outlier, as he enters his 4th full season at the age of 28.  

I guess but I hesitate to call one of three an outlier. 

It's only three seasons.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

It's no just his ERA. There are plenty of other underlying numbers / stats that point to Cease being a average pitcher and not a Cy Young / TOR pitcher. Guarenteed Rate Field played like a middle of the pack (14th overall) hitter's park last season so I really don't don't understand that part of your argument. Or the argument about the White Sox defense either. They ranked 14th overall last season which, for context, was just one spot ahead of the Orioles. So I certainly wouldn't say the odds were stacked against him from a home stadium / defense standpoint. 

The most obvious thing that will always make Cease's success unsustainable are his walks. When you consistently flirt with a BB/9 rate of 4 there's no margin for error in your game. So instead of blaming the defense and ballpark for his lack of success maybe you should point a finger at him for putting all those runners on base in the first place. And he's shown no signs of being able to improve on this throughout his career. 

Also there have been plenty of one hit wonder pitchers over the years. Some have even won Cy Youngs. It really would be foolish to ignore the amount that good luck sometimes factor into the equation. And we can't predict the future, but we can make educated guesses based on statistical data. And all the data points to Cease's 2022 season being an outlier. 

Only 6 teams had a worse OAA than the White Sox.(Os were one of them but luckily Frazier will be gone and he was a big part of that)

And yes, according to park factors, that stadium has played about average the last 3 years.  However, over the last 3 years, it’s 8th in homers but does a good job of suppressing other extra base hits.

The park is particularly tough on lefties, ranking 25th the last 3 years.  It is 7th best for righties though.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

As @Can_of_corn pointed out, the GM that was shopping him is gone.  Looking at this objectively, we don't know if whoever's in charge now will be shopping him or not.  If the old GM was there, I'd be more inclined to agree.

In regards to 2022, correct.  

Yes we do. He’s 100% getting shopped.

[Moose Milligan]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So you are saying they should Cease to an extension?

Maybe they should, maybe they shouldn't.  I can see it both ways, easily.