Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So you typed this: “He (Cease) has been better than average literally, only 1 time out of 5 years in his career.”

You have a different interpretation of the word “literally” than I do, because Cease had a 111 ERA+ in 2020, 112 in 2021, and 180 in 2022, each time actually pitching enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.  All of those seasons were above average in my book.  

Well he only contended for a CY one year!

[btdart20]

7 hours ago, emmett16 said:

After listening to the podcasts that @btdart20 posted in the MLB section, a couple things come to mind:

1. I wonder how easily attainable it is to get a full and reliable report on other team's players mental make-up, work ethic, & drive.  

2. If attainable, I'm curious which guys out there this org. wouldn't touch with a 10' pole.  

I imagine that info could be hard to come by and, if so, could create a sense of more risk when trading known entities.  Just another small piece in a very big puzzle.  

Interesting that you zeroed in on that angle.  I agree that's likely a big part of the matrix of selection at least and how they loosely label as 'high character'.  Maybe the 'tie-breaker' for Holliday or EBJ.

[btdart20]

7 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I am curious when the year begins if EBJ gets set on one of those Norby-Cowser several years projects of we need to grow some power out of you.     The shape of his skills is distinctive enough I think him getting a pass is possible.

He's Jarrod Dyson by October 2024, and the 2025 outfield is Mullins, EBJ and the Kjerstad-Cowser winner.

Whether Elias pushes to win Cease or Burnes is a clue what he really thinks of Means.    A tournament contender benefits from 3 strong options, and I believe by SP4 Clubs probably prefer relievers for bigger October roles.    TEX got both Leclerc and Sborz into their Top 4 in October innings.

Yes-No-Maybe, are you one of MLB's 75-90 best SP for 2024's competition including tournament?     Cease - yes, Kremer - no, Means - maybe.      There are nits to pick with Dylan Cease, but don't miss the forest for the trees.

I'm still of the mindset that EBJ's max value isn't really EV based but some type of quality of contact metric.  EBJ with slap/gap power on base at a 40% clip causes more havoc than 15 EBJ homers.

Interesting 'pitting' HK and Cowser together.  I've been putting Cowser against Hays for PAs.  You might be right as it would pace the integration plan and maintain the L/R thing too.  And could return more value in a trade too.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

I'm still of the mindset that EBJ's max value isn't really EV based but some type of quality of contact metric.  EBJ with slap/gap power on base at a 40% clip causes more havoc than 15 EBJ homers.

Interesting 'pitting' HK and Cowser together.  I've been putting Cowser against Hays for PAs.  You might be right as it would pace the integration plan and maintain the L/R thing too.  And could return more value in a trade too.

Sure.  If he puts up a .350+ OBP he’s got a lot of value.   I do not think it’s clear whether he’ll be able to do that in the majors if he’s nothing more than a slap hitter.   Maybe he will, but we’ll have to see.  We’ll learn a lot this year as he moves up the ladder (hopefully).

[RZNJ]

Prediction.  Enrique Bradfield will hit double digit home runs this year.   Dude hit 15 homers over 191 college games.  Transition to wood bat and pro pitching.   Great coaching.  He’s not powerless.   He’ll also pump some iron and get a little bigger and stronger while maintaining speed.  That’s what they (Orioles development) do.

It’s what they did with Joey Ortiz who showed the same zilcho power in his summer debut.

[emmett16]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Can he switch-pitch?

He hurt his arm when he was younger and taught himself to throw lefty so that he could keep playing.  Not sure if he kept that up or not.  He's apparently a top notch cook also.  I remember seeing that on a MASN special (I think) early last year.  Tony is a very interesting dude. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by emmett16

[emmett16]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Prediction.  Enrique Bradfield will hit double digit home runs this year.   Dude hit 15 homers over 191 college games.  Transition to wood bat and pro pitching.   Great coaching.  He’s not powerless.   He’ll also pump some iron and get a little bigger and stronger while maintaining speed.  That’s what they (Orioles development) do.

It’s what they did with Joey Ortiz who showed the same zilcho power in his summer debut.

I've been trying to find a way to upload video of a game I saw him where he went deep oppo with plenty to spare.  Later in the game he turned on a pitch and hit an absolute bomb but it went foul by a hair.  He's a strong guy, but his swing isn't sculpted to hit dingers. 

[btdart20]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.  If he puts up a .350+ OBP he’s got a lot of value.   I do not think it’s clear whether he’ll be able to do that in the majors if he’s nothing more than a slap hitter.   Maybe he will, but we’ll have to see.  We’ll learn a lot this year as he moves up the ladder (hopefully).

I think this is where the Boddy nerds in the lab work taylor things to EBJ’s strengths and weaknesses.  And not try to fit a square peg in a round hole.  It’s fine if he’s not a 15-20 HR so it’s best not to push him down that path.  His z-contact rates are off the charts good.  Maximize squared/solid contact not looking for max EV and he plays.

Women’s softball leadoff hitters do a “power slap” where the goal is solid contact over the IF.  It has an odd crossover that wouldn’t carry over to baseball (I think), but something like that sounds ideal for EBJ.  

It’s all conjecture for sure.  The traditional “he has to do enough to keep the pitchers honest” still applies.  But what that looks like for Basallo and what it looks like for EBJ are vastly different.  And the training and measurable goals would look different too.  That’s “the rest of the story” that I’m interested in.

TBD…

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think this is where the Boddy nerds in the lab work taylor things to EBJ’s strengths and weaknesses.  And not try to fit a square peg in a round hole.  It’s fine if he’s not a 15-20 HR so it’s best not to push him down that path.  His z-contact rates are off the charts good.  Maximize squared/solid contact not looking for max EV and he plays.

Women’s softball leadoff hitters do a “power slap” where the goal is solid contact over the IF.  It has an odd crossover that wouldn’t carry over to baseball (I think), but something like that sounds ideal for EBJ.  

It’s all conjecture for sure.  The traditional “he has to do enough to keep the pitchers honest” still applies.  But what that looks like for Basallo and what it looks like for EBJ are vastly different.  And the training and measurable goals would look different too.  That’s “the rest of the story” that I’m interested in.

TBD…

Yeah I see the urgency to have every single guy in the lineup hitting 20+ HR.  If the O's have say 3 guys hitting 30+ HR and 3 guys hitting 20-30 HR if the other guys are defensive specialist and speed type guys I think that's fine.  If EBJ hits .300 w/a .360ish OBP and 30 2B and 10 3B and only 8 HR I won't complain.

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah I see the urgency to have every single guy in the lineup hitting 20+ HR.  If the O's have say 3 guys hitting 30+ HR and 3 guys hitting 20-30 HR if the other guys are defensive specialist and speed type guys I think that's fine.  If EBJ hits .300 w/a .360ish OBP and 30 2B and 10 3B and only 8 HR I won't complain.

Who would complain if a guy hit his 90% ceiling. 

[sportsfan8703]

After thinking about it… how else would we get a SP like Cease? FA?  That’s not happening. Trade deadline?  Why did we trade for Flaherty and not Montgomery?  Probably because Montgomery cost almost $5 million more in salary owed than Flaherty did to finish out the season.  

With that being said… we might not win the trade, but it’s probably are only option. Elias would have 1 year to find a LF for 2025. Maybe we don’t trade one of Hays/Mullins and ride it out like Santa. Maybe Hilliard puts it all together?  Or other guys in our system breakout.  We have three first rd draft picks, but drafting for needs for NCAA bats has lead to DJ Stewart and Cadyn Grenier. 

Bottomline, it will be easier to find a LF than it will be find a #2/#3 SP.  Well just have to live with it if Cowser makes some AS teams.  

Edited December 15, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

After thinking about it… how else would we get a SP like Cease? FA?  That’s not happening. Trade deadline?  Why did we trade for Flaherty and not Montgomery?  Probably because Montgomery cost almost $5 million more in salary owed than Flaherty did to finish out the season.  

With that being said… we might not win the trade, but it’s probably are only option. Elias would have 1 year to find a LF for 2025. Maybe we don’t trade one of Hays/Mullins and ride it out like Santa. Maybe Hilliard puts it all together?  Or other guys in our system breakout.  We have three first rd draft picks, but drafting for needs for NCAA bats has lead to DJ Stewart and Cadyn Grenier. 

Bottomline, it will be easier to find a LF than it will be find a #2/#3 SP.  Well just have to live with it if Cowser makes some AS teams.  

We aren’t trading for Cease….should let this thread Die

[Hallas]

Bob Nightingale seems to think we have a pretty good shot at Cease.  I wonder what a package for him looks like.  I'm thinking it's at least 2 of our top 10 minus Holliday and a young promising pitcher.

[interloper]

Quote

Looking toward the south side, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the White Sox were interested in right-hander Ryan Pepiot as part of a possible return package while discussing a Dylan Cease trade with the Dodgers earlier this winter. 

If the Sox are asking for Pepiot in a Cease deal, who exactly are they looking at from us, pitching-wise? Don't think a deal happens without Hall involved, plus one of the position players. 

[NCRaven]

I’m okay with Povich plus.  Not Hall.