2023 Orioles #3 Prospect is Coby Mayo - 3B/1B

[RZNJ]

This was Eric Longehagen’s take on Fangraphs.  It’s fair to say it looks like a poor job on this one.

“Even though he’s on the doorstep of the big leagues, Westburg doesn’t have a clear position yet. He’s played all over the infield but his arm is best suited to play second base, maybe even left field eventually. Seemingly similar to other upper-level hitters with bat-first (some would argue bat-only) profiles, Westburg’s handedness slides him behind guys like Jonathan Aranda, Edouard Julien and Michael Busch, while other righty bats like Miguel Vargas and Spencer Steer have superior bat-to-ball skills. There has to be some separation between Westburg and that group of 50s to account for his combination of strikeouts and below-average defense. He’s still pretty likely to poke out 20-25 homers while playing fringy infield defense, a complementary regular who needs a late-inning replacement.”

Edited January 11 by RZNJ

[OriolesMagic83]

22 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The good old days I remember include winning a playoff game.

101 wins!  I was told that's the answer for any doubts.

[ShoelesJoe]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Honestly ...we can do better than serviceable with all of the talent we have

I like Gunner 3B, Ortiz SS, Holiday 2B, Mayo 1B, Basallo C/DH

You think an infield with the above configuration will win you more games than Mayo 3B, Gunnar SS, Holiday 2B, Mountcastle / O’Hearn 1B, and Basallo C/DH ? I like Ortiz’ defense and all, but I’d bet his bat will cost you way more than Mayo’s glove. 

[RZNJ]

20 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

101 wins!  I was told that's the answer for any doubts.

That’s over 100 instances of being happy last season.   For some people.

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

You think an infield with the above configuration will win you more games than Mayo 3B, Gunnar SS, Holiday 2B, Mountcastle / O’Hearn 1B, and Basallo C/DH ? I like Ortiz’ defense and all, but I’d bet his bat will cost you way more than Mayo’s glove. 

I’m optimistic about His offense that has improved substantially over the last 2 seasons. If he can hit .700-.750 OPS they will win more games to superior defense. You upgrade every position in the infield besides 2B. The White Sox fans can tell you about having “adequate “ defenders as opposed to Plus to Plus Plus. I think you have plus plus at 3B, SS , Plus at 2B and 1B. That’s as opposed to Average 3B, Plus SS , 2B, plus to avg at 1B with your configuration 

Edited January 11 by Roll Tide

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

I’ve said before in other threads, Mayo is our Austin Riley. Eerily similar offensive and defensive profiles, not to mention physical size attributes. 

Riley worked hard on his 3B defense and is now very serviceable there.  If you recall, the Braves tried him in the outfield when they signed Donaldson. Riley improved his defense, the ATL moved on from Donaldson and the rest is history. 

Mayo has heard the whispers, has put his head down and gotten to work. 

The difference is the Braves didn’t have a Gunnar Henderson playing third. 

[scarey1999]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The difference is the Braves didn’t have a Gunnar Henderson playing third. 

True. Different roster construction, prospects, etc.

I know there’s a lot of strong opinions on the topic here on the board, but I’m in the camp that Gunnar sticks at short and Holliday slides in at 2nd for the foreseeable future aka next 3-5ish years. So that keeps a spot open for Mayo at 3rd if that’s how it all plays out, depending on trades, etc of course.  

Good problems to have. Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. 

[AnythingO's]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The difference is the Braves didn’t have a Gunnar Henderson playing third. 

This. I like Ortiz as well as anyone for SS but there is no way Hyde is moving Gunnar off SS in 2024 for Joey. Gunnar is the best 3B we have but also a fine SS. Holiday is coming this year and probably mans 2B initially. Westburg has shown he belongs and can play 2B and 3B. To start Gunnar at SS Westburg at 3B and Joey at 2B. Holiday's arrival moves Joey to Utility which is a shame and a waste of prospect talent. In a year or 2 Holiday to SS Gunnar to 3B and Westburg back to 2B. The pieces just fit better with Westburg in the mix vs Ortiz. I think he is a better 3B than Joey and Joey won't displace either Gunnar or Holiday. I believe in Westburg's bat more and his defense is above average already.

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

Sure. I didn’t say Mayo was or is serviceable, I was only referring to Riley. Riley was exactly avg according range OOA but his arm was in the bottom 3rd for MLB 3B in ‘23.  So Mayo arguably has a leg up over Riley there but because his arm strength is so much better. 

Who’s to say he shows up at camp vastly improved over last year with his range and actions?  The improvements he made last year were pretty remarkable, given that national writers have documented it.  So, I guess the point is, he’s trending in the right direction and may end up being way more than serviceable at 3rd in time, especially with that cannon of an arm. We just don’t know yet. That’s why it’s called player development. Things change constantly, for better or worse. 

For some reason, despite the many scouting reports, including mine, that discuss his improvements defensively as well as his known outstanding work ethic, there are group of posters on her who have this feeling his awful at 3B. It's like it's 1980 again and their only information is his poor fielding percentage. 

At the end of the day, he has an impact bat and if Ortiz is traded, Gunnar needs to be the everyday SS. If Westburg is back at 2B, that leaves Urias and Mayo as the 3B options. 

Now those same people will most likely laud Urias for his defense while not realizing he was one of the worse defensive 3B last year according to OAA and Fielding Run Value. 

So is the Orioles defense better with Gunnar at 3B instead of Mayo, sure. Is Mayo behind Gunnar, Westburg and probably Ortiz defensively at 3B, most likely. Does he have the most impactful bat among all of them besides Gunnar, absolutely. 

Is Mayo the longterm answer at 3B defensively, probably not because I think as he grows into his mid to late 20s he will slow down due to his size. Does it make some sense to see if he can play RF effectively? Sure. 

So there a lot of possibilities, but dismissing Mayo at 3B by saying he can't play there is wrong in my opinion.

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

For some reason, despite the many scouting reports, including mine, that discuss his improvements defensively as well as his known outstanding work ethic, there are group of posters on her who have this feeling his awful at 3B. It's like it's 1980 again and their only information is his poor fielding percentage. 

At the end of the day, he has an impact bat and if Ortiz is traded, Gunnar needs to be the everyday SS. If Westburg is back at 2B, that leaves Urias and Mayo as the 3B options. 

Now those same people will most likely laud Urias for his defense while not realizing he was one of the worse defensive 3B last year according to OAA and Fielding Run Value. 

So is the Orioles defense better with Gunnar at 3B instead of Mayo, sure. Is Mayo behind Gunnar, Westburg and probably Ortiz defensively at 3B, most likely. Does he have the most impactful bat among all of them besides Gunnar, absolutely. 

Is Mayo the longterm answer at 3B defensively, probably not because I think as he grows into his mid to late 20s he will slow down due to his size. Does it make some sense to see if he can play RF effectively? Sure. 

So there a lot of possibilities, but dismissing Mayo at 3B by saying he can't play there is wrong in my opinion.

Tony,  I totally believe you when you say Mayo is improving his defense at 3B.  But as you point out that does not mean is better than several of the other players on the team at 3B.   The  best way to get him into the lineup some times this year may be for him to play 1B/DH and trade O'Hearn.   I know that is replacing a lefty bat with a righty bat  but it doesn't matter which side a guy hits from if he can really hit.

Just because he is a 1B/DH player when he is called up does not mean he can't add 3B to his positions as he gets better.

Not saying this is an opening day move.   But ST should be interesting.

 

 

Edited January 12 by wildcard

[Tony-OH]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

This was Eric Longehagen’s take on Fangraphs.  It’s fair to say it looks like a poor job on this one.

“Even though he’s on the doorstep of the big leagues, Westburg doesn’t have a clear position yet. He’s played all over the infield but his arm is best suited to play second base, maybe even left field eventually. Seemingly similar to other upper-level hitters with bat-first (some would argue bat-only) profiles, Westburg’s handedness slides him behind guys like Jonathan Aranda, Edouard Julien and Michael Busch, while other righty bats like Miguel Vargas and Spencer Steer have superior bat-to-ball skills. There has to be some separation between Westburg and that group of 50s to account for his combination of strikeouts and below-average defense. He’s still pretty likely to poke out 20-25 homers while playing fringy infield defense, a complementary regular who needs a late-inning replacement.”

I think a lot of scouts/analysts got Westburg's defense wrong, mostly because arm strength is a bit overrated. When you look at arm strength numbers in baseball savant, you will see a decent amount of players with low arm strength numbers that have average or above average OAA numbers.

There is so much that goes into whether a fielder executes a play. I would say that he first has to position himself, but now that is taken care of by the little card that is prepared for him for each batter. So let's forget positioning for now and assume that is not player dependent anymore. Let's just look at what happens once the ball comes off the bat.

First, he has to identify the speed, direction and spin of a ball hit in his direction. This where a fielder's first step quickness comes into play.

Secondly, he has to get to the ball in an effective manner. This means judging the hops if he has time, and then getting himself in a position to field the ball in a manner that allows him to get his feet set quickly for a throw. 

Next, he has to have the hands to get his glove on the ball accurately by ensuring the ball goes into the webbing of the glove. 

Once the ball is in the web it's now a process of setting his feet while conducting the exchange of the ball from the glove to his throwing hand. 

Now here's one of the things that is not judged by any metrics that I've seen but is as important or maybe even more important than pure arm strength. It's the point where the fielder is now preparing to throw the ball by moving his arm into a throwing position. That arm path can be significantly different for each player. Players with short arm paths, in conjunction with a quick exchange, have a quick release. 

This is how players like Cory Seager, Xander Boegarts and especially Dansby Swanson all have above average OAA despite well below average arm strength.

With that all in mind, I think that happened with Westburg a bit. Visually, a scout can see arm strength during throws, as well as all the other things mentioned above, but I do think arm strength is the easiest to determine. 

What happens is a guy will get pegged as having a below average arm and get pigeon holed to 2B. Last year, Westburg actually was better at 3B than 2B according to OAA and FRV despite him having a below average major league infield arm. 

Westburg has always moved well because he's athletic, but he's 6-2, 210 so I think scouts/analysts see him as going to lose some of that quickness so they pegged him as a below average defender. 

My biggest issue with his defense is that he's always struggled throwing moving away from where he need to throw and his hands we're slightly below average for me. But after watching him a lot last year with the Orioles, I didn't see any reason he can't be an average defender at 2B or 3B. 

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony,  I totally believe you when you say Mayo is improving his defense at 3B.  But as you point out that does not mean is better the several of the other players on the team at 3B.   The  best way to get him into the lineup some times this year may be for him to play 1B/DH and trade O'Hearn.   I know that is replacing a lefty bat for a righty bat  but it doesn't matter which side a guy hits from if he can really hit.

Just because he is a 1B/DH player when he is called up does not mean he can't add 3B to his positions as he gets better.

Not saying this is an opening day move.   But ST should be interesting.

 

 

But DH can't be clogged up because Adley needs that a good amount of time when he's not catching. I still prefer to see if he can play RF before sticking him at 1B. 1B is a waste of a special arm and he runs well enough at this point that he should cover enough ground in RF in Camden Yards. I do think long term he won't be at 3B, but my entire point is that he'd be fine there for now. 

If Ortiz is still here, than I think he goes back to AAA and plays a mix of RF/3B/1B. If Ortiz makes the team, I think he ends up the everyday SS as he's the best defensive SS in the org while Gunnar is the best defensive 3B in the org.

[oriole]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

For some reason, despite the many scouting reports, including mine, that discuss his improvements defensively as well as his known outstanding work ethic, there are group of posters on her who have this feeling his awful at 3B. It's like it's 1980 again and their only information is his poor fielding percentage. 

At the end of the day, he has an impact bat and if Ortiz is traded, Gunnar needs to be the everyday SS. If Westburg is back at 2B, that leaves Urias and Mayo as the 3B options. 

Now those same people will most likely laud Urias for his defense while not realizing he was one of the worse defensive 3B last year according to OAA and Fielding Run Value. 

So is the Orioles defense better with Gunnar at 3B instead of Mayo, sure. Is Mayo behind Gunnar, Westburg and probably Ortiz defensively at 3B, most likely. Does he have the most impactful bat among all of them besides Gunnar, absolutely. 

Is Mayo the longterm answer at 3B defensively, probably not because I think as he grows into his mid to late 20s he will slow down due to his size. Does it make some sense to see if he can play RF effectively? Sure. 

So there a lot of possibilities, but dismissing Mayo at 3B by saying he can't play there is wrong in my opinion.

I’ve been under the impression that Mayo is not a very good 3B. You’ve even graded him as a 40/45, which I understand is below average. If he can play an average or better 3B, then he becomes a much more useful piece. I’ve sort of just assumed he was going to eventually be a 1B.

[sportsfan8703]

What’s going to keep Mayo in AAA this year isn’t his defense. It’s that we have Holliday and then Westburg/Ortiz/Urias for 3B. 

If not for that, Mayo would be on the Gunnar plan a little for 2024. Come up in late April/May. We have a strong enough lineup to deal with him adjusting to MLB pitching, but with the goal of developing a him for what he can be come September. Gunnar went from 0-April to Bregman. Mayo could go 0-May to Glaus-ish

Edited January 12 by sportsfan8703

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What’s going to keep Mayo in AAA this year isn’t his defense. It’s that we have Holliday and then Westburg/Ortiz/Urias for 3B. 

If not for that, Mayo would be on the Gunnar plan a little for 2024. Come up in late April/May. We have a strong enough lineup to deal with him adjusting to MLB pitching, but with the goal of developing a him for what he can be come September. Gunnar went from 0-April to Bregman. Mayo could go 0-May to Glaus-ish

No way Holliday keeps Mayo in AAA. Mayo is way closer to being ready than Holliday at this stage in their careers. Holliday will be on the Gunnar plan.

You either have an unrealistically poor opinion of Mayo or don't understand where these two players are in their development to think Mayo is not coming until 31 August because Holliday is going to be starting at 2B. 

I will be totally and utterly shocked if Holliday is starting at 2B on opening day or even before June. I think the Orioles want to get him as many reps as possible at shortstop and that will be done in AAA.