2023 #18 Prospect Seth Johnson - RHP

[Tony-OH]

https://orioleshangout.com/2023/11/21/2023-18-prospect-seth-johnson-rhp/

Back from Tommy John surgery, the 25-year old right-hander got just 10.1 innings under his belt this season but his upside brings him as the #18 prospect.

Seth Johnson
Throws: RHP
Age (as of Jun 30th): 24
2022 Level: FCL/A-/A+/AA

Pitches (current/future value)
Fastball: 55/55
Curveball: 40/45
Change: 30/40
Slider: 40/50
Command: 40/50

Most Likely Future Role: Reliever
Ceiling: Back of rotation starter

What we know: Acquired as a key piece in a three-team Trey Mancini trade, this hard throwing righty missed most of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but did come back at the end of the year to get his feet wet on the mound again.

The 6-1, 200 pound Johnson was drafted by Tampa in the 1^st round (40^th pick) of the 2019 draft after being converted to a pitcher in College due to his arm strength. Johnson was raw, but had a fastball that touched 99-100 MPH in college. Upon his return last this summer, Johnson's velocity was back to the 94-96 MPH range in short stints though his offspeed pitches clearly were not quite back to pre-injury form.

Prior to the injury, his slider was his best strikeout pitch, but it was inconsistent in his return. He was able to miss bats with the pitch low and away on righties or even down and in on lefties. His curveball has similar shape than his slider, but comes in at 72-75 MPH, but is inconsistent though occasionally showing some power.

While he has thrown a change in the past, he didn’t throw many the season before his injury or upon his return, and it while it has some fade and drop, he doesn't have great feel for the pitch. The slider works a bit against lefties, but it would be nice to have that pitch that breaks away from them more consistent.

What we don’t know: Will the Orioles continue to try and develop him as a starter or will they convert him to relief to get him to the majors quicker? Can he hold up over 150 or more innings? Can he hold his velocity and command up past 80 pitches?

What we think: It's hard to get a read on who Johnson really is as a prospect and he gets a bit of a mulligan until he gets a full season under his belt next year. He's already on the 40-man roster so there could be some interest in converting him to relief and see if there is some value to him in that role. He'll pitch at 25-years old and only has 148 innings under his belt so moving him to the pen and see if his stuff plays up might be the best play. The fastball does have good carry and if he can pop up to the high-90s in relief, he has the chance to be a high leverage reliever.

 

[btdart20]

"Mulligan" is appropriate.  2024 is a big year for him as he starts to get a little long in the tooth...

[Just Regular]

Johnson and Baumeister both having that "didn't pitch much as teenagers" biographical detail is interesting.

One of my guesses is that if a homo sapien wants to do what Jacob deGrom did when he was 30, don't do what Dylan Bundy did when he was 17.

A fastball reliant SP that might need to go to bullpen kind of reminds me of Baumann.

[Sports Guy]

I’m guessing he starts in Aberdeen although I wouldn’t completely rule out Bowie.

If he does start in Aberdeen, it will be interesting to see how long he stays there if he is performing well.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m guessing he starts in Aberdeen although I wouldn’t completely rule out Bowie.

If he does start in Aberdeen, it will be interesting to see how long he stays there if he is performing well.

He ended the year in Bowie so I'm thinking he starts there. If he can't pitch in AA at 25-years old almost two years after his Tommy John surgery he's not very good.

He showed enough velocity and flashes of stuff that suggests he should have success in Bowie next year.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

"Mulligan" is appropriate.  2024 is a big year for him as he starts to get a little long in the tooth...

He and DL Hall were born same day!      They are just a month younger than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whose official hour of posting has arrived....Chayce McDermott is the Oriole Arm who is closest to Yamamoto's precise age.

If they aren't already, by this fall Ortiz and McDermott will be well past whenever the tipping point between Nuke LaLoosh and Crash Davis occurs.

If Johnson gets Baysox opening night, some K% numbers from last year he may or may not be able to beat: Povich 33, McDermott 31, Van Loon 29

[LookinUp]

I have no idea what to make of this guy, but it's nice that he started getting ramped up before this season ended.

On that note, I wonder how different the offseason is for a guy like Johnson, Means and Baumler who didn't just pitch for 9 months.

Are they more active throwing or do they drop into the same rest, workout, start throwing around xmas routine as the guys who did play a full season?

[Frobby]

I’m looking forward to seeing what Johnson can do now that he’s healthy.   

I wonder what the O’s do to educate these guys who are rehabbing on the art of pitching.  Figure they’re doing their rehab routine for an hour or two a day.  That leaves an awful lot of dead time.   You’d think they’d be able to use some of it to learn stuff about pitching that they don’t necessarily have time for when they’re playing.  
 

[sportsfan8703]

32 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Johnson and Baumeister both having that "didn't pitch much as teenagers" biographical detail is interesting.

One of my guesses is that if a homo sapien wants to do what Jacob deGrom did when he was 30, don't do what Dylan Bundy did when he was 17.

A fastball reliant SP that might need to go to bullpen kind of reminds me of Baumann.

Baumann wouldn’t be a bad outcome. He tired out last year like Wells, and is out of options for 24’. People are a little too down on him, but the lack of options might justify it. 

We knew Johnson was going to be out when we traded for him. I’d be happy if he’s a three year up/down bullpen arm. Winning clubs need that over 162. 

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Baumann wouldn’t be a bad outcome. He tired out last year like Wells, and is out of options for 24’. People are a little too down on him, but the lack of options might justify it. 

We knew Johnson was going to be out when we traded for him. I’d be happy if he’s a three year up/down bullpen arm. Winning clubs need that over 162. 

Baumann is endlessly frustrating.  The guy has talent, and I feel he should be much better than he is.  His stuff is good enough to be a back end bullpen guy but he just so inconsistent it’s maddening.  

[interloper]

I'm warming to idea of him helping in the bullpen this year, especially if it helps him return to his high-90s velo. Guy just needs innings so we can see what we have. 

[sportsfan8703]

I had no idea that Johnson didn’t really pitch in in NCAA either. He switched to pitching at Campbell or JUCO, and threw 60IP in 14 outings. He’s got less than 150 IP since high school. I knew he needed TJ, and he was a project, but he’s a huge project. He’s been a top 20ish prospect for 4-5 years now in some of the most talented farm systems in baseball. TB, HOU, and Baltimore. 

Gotta hope that he’s done a lot of his developing in side sessions we have a well laid out plan for him. Maybe 3 IP starts in Aberdeen, and Bowie, all season. 

He’s almost comparable to win Givens went back to pitching for us in 2013 and was in the MLB after 1.5 seasons in the minors. Johnson has two options, so maybe that’s the career arch that makes the most sense.