The 2024 OPS projections thread

[Frobby]

With ZiPS, Steamer and Marcel projections now out, I thought I’d post a comparison to see how they all stand.  They are listed below in the order I just gave.

Rutschman .809/.818/.818

McCann .645/.661/.656

Mountcastle .758/.783/.780

O’Hearn .762/.747/.740

Westburg .737/.745/.752

Norby .704/.714/—-

Henderson .816/.816/.829

Urias .716/.693/.736

Mayo .717/.729/—-

Holliday .722/.733/—-

Mateo .655/.661/.664

Ortiz .662/.720/.716

Hays .760/.737/.755

Cowser .707/.719/.694

Mullins .747/.732/.774

Santander .795/.778/.777

Stowers .729/.725/.704

Kjerstad .713/.753/.762

McKenna .641/.647/.687

Hilliard .665/.689/.699

Not a ton of discrepancy in there, with only Urías, Ortiz, Mullins, Kjerstad, McKenna and Hilliard having more than a 25-point differential between the high and the low.

 

 

 

[DirtyBird]

Ugly

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Ugly

No it isn’t.  Not at all.  

[btdart20]

It's pretty obvious Marcel is accurate and ZiPS are haters. 

[forphase1]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Westburg .737/.745/.752

Henderson .816/.816/.829

Urias .716/.693/.736

Holliday .722/.733/—-

Mateo .655/.661/.664

Ortiz .662/.720/.716

More proof, though speculative of course,  of it making zero sense to carry Mateo on the roster.  Trade him,  cut him,  whatever.   Just get him somewhere else. 

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

More proof, though speculative of course,  of it making zero sense to carry Mateo on the roster.  Trade him,  cut him,  whatever.   Just get him somewhere else. 

Whatever the argument is for Mateo, it’s not his OPS.   

[TommyPickles]

I think one takeaway from these numbers is that it is probably naive to expect all of these prospects to immediately outperform their veteran counterparts at the major league level. You need a mix of rookies and vets.

For example, here's their projected OPS when you average all three:

Infield:

Urias- .715 vs. Ortiz- .699

Mountcastle- .774 vs. Mayo- .723

Outfield: 

Santander- .783 vs. Cowser- .707

Hays- .751 vs. Kjerstad- .743

 

Don't freakout when guys like Urias and Hays are getting starts in the early part of 2024, or when guys like Mayo or Norby are starting the year in AAA.

[Dunk35]

I think this just shows how much our lineup needs a .900 OPS guy in the middle of it. I know they are hard to find but if we are shooting for WS titles, we need one of those guys. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Dunk35 said:

I think this just shows how much our lineup needs a .900 OPS guy in the middle of it. I know they are hard to find but if we are shooting for WS titles, we need one of those guys. 

Not hard to find one this off-season just look west.

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Dunk35 said:

I think this just shows how much our lineup needs a .900 OPS guy in the middle of it. I know they are hard to find but if we are shooting for WS titles, we need one of those guys. 

For context, there were 12 hitters with 450+ PAs who had a .900 OPS in 2023.  

Only Ohtani is an FA. 

And only Soto is rumored to be tradeable. 

JD Martinez (.893), Bellinger (.881), and Soler (.853) just missed but are FAs too.  

Ever other competing team will be hunting them as well, so they'll be costly.  

Major League Leaderboards - 2023 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

(I don't see them doing more than due diligence for Ohtani and Soto.  Maybe there's some interest in one of the other 3 guys.  I bet Bellinger gets a contract longer than we're willing to give him.)

[sportsfan8703]

O'Hearn is too low across the board.  We'll be able to protect him from LHP, and he benefits from OPACY and the anti shift rules.  

[Malike]

They are really down on Cowser. I think most of that list looks pretty fair.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Malike said:

They are really down on Cowser. I think most of that list looks pretty fair.

All these work on algorithms, so I really wouldn’t say they’re “down” on Cowser.  It’s just what the algorithm spits out based on his major and minor league numbers and other data input into their system.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

All these work on algorithms, so I really wouldn’t say they’re “down” on Cowser.  It’s just what the algorithm spits out based on his major and minor league numbers and other data input into their system.   

I'm pretty sure it's their anti-Lego bias showing.  I'm just shocked it didn't pull down Gunnar's numbers more.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

All these work on algorithms, so I really wouldn’t say they’re “down” on Cowser.  It’s just what the algorithm spits out based on his major and minor league numbers and other data input into their system.   

It just seems really low, I get he was awful in very limited time in the MLB but he was pretty darn good in AAA and isn't exactly an aging player. I'd be fairly shocked if he was a sub .730 OPS for a season let alone sub .700.