MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

.....not to mention that Bogaerts never has to really worry about his value ever again.  He doesn't really need to work hard, nor does he need to play particularly well.  Kind of like what happened with Chris Davis.   For all intents and purposes, the money is (or will be) in the bank regardless.

Are you suggesting that Bogaerts won’t work hard, or that he’s comparable to Chris Davis at this point?   He was worth 4.4 rWAR in the first year of his deal.   

[Sanity Check]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Are you suggesting that Bogaerts won’t work hard, or that he’s comparable to Chris Davis at this point?   He was worth 4.4 rWAR in the first year of his deal.   

I am suggesting that he no longer needs to be concerned about his value based on the money he's getting over the next what, 10 years now?  He's no longer playing for his next contract.  And I will suggest, rightly or wrongly, that I believe that some guys on really long-term deals will become complacent as they age and not want to work as hard.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

.....not to mention that Bogaerts never has to really worry about his value ever again.  He doesn't really need to work hard, nor does he need to play particularly well.  Kind of like what happened with Chris Davis.   For all intents and purposes, the money is (or will be) in the bank regardless.

Do we think Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson will quit too once they sell some FA seasons?

Xander Bogaerts is a 2-time World Series champion, and a player who esteemed his signing organization highly enough to give them a sweetheart deal once just like Mike Mussina did, and Mike Elias hopes every day some of his guys will.  

[Sanity Check]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Are you suggesting that Bogaerts won’t work hard, or that he’s comparable to Chris Davis at this point?   He was worth 4.4 rWAR in the first year of his deal.   

I was also told by one of the Orioles coaches who I will not name, that the Spring after Davis signed the big contract, when the road guys left for the Spring Training Road games (which most regulars don't need to travel to), the regulars are expected to stay back and "get their work in."  And, Chris Davis wasn't sticking around to get his work in.  Most times, he had a tee time, or something else going on.  And I was told this that year, not years later.  The coach was frustrated witnessing it, but he also wasn't responsible for Chris Davis, so he had no control over changing it.  The results speak for themselves.

[Sanity Check]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Do we think Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson will quit too once they sell some FA seasons?

Xander Bogaerts is a 2-time World Series champion, and a player who esteemed his signing organization highly enough to give them a sweetheart deal once just like Mike Mussina did, and Mike Elias hopes every day some of his guys will.  

Bogaerts didn't just sell some FA seasons, he set himself up for life.  He won't need another contract in his 40's, and my guess is that he won't get one.

So, my answer to your question would be, "No."  I also didn't say that people "quit", what I said was they no longer will need to work as hard, and in some cases, they may not.  But my main point was, Bogaerts no longer needs to worry about what his value is. 

[Just Regular]

44 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I was also told by one of the Orioles coaches who I will not name, that the Spring after Davis signed the big contract, when the road guys left for the Spring Training Road games (which most regulars don't need to travel to), the regulars are expected to stay back and "get their work in."  And, Chris Davis wasn't sticking around to get his work in.  Most times, he had a tee time, or something else going on.  And I was told this that year, not years later.  The coach was frustrated witnessing it, but he also wasn't responsible for Chris Davis, so he had no control over changing it.  The results speak for themselves.

Scott Boras outflanking Dan Duquette to get to Peter was a tough moment in franchise history.

It probably colors many of our impressions and makes the thought of ideally 5-6 current Orioles actually deserving to earn more than Chris Davis in time for their baseball ability a little anxiety inducing.

Chris Davis was a risky player profile for a Club to make that kind of investment in.     Duquette knew it at that time.     Adley's going to be a lot more risky than Gunnar or Holliday, and get there sooner.

[Chaka Garcia]

9 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Scott Boras outflanking Dan Duquette to get to Peter was a tough moment in franchise history.

It probably colors many of our impressions and makes the thought of ideally 5-6 current Orioles actually deserving to earn more than Chris Davis in time for their baseball ability a little anxiety inducing.

Chris Davis was a risky player profile for a Club to make that kind of investment in.     Duquette knew it at that time.     Adley's going to be a lot more risky than Gunnar or Holliday, and get there sooner.

It may not be a popular opinion, I would not give Adley that 7 or 10 year extension. When you look at Mauer, Posey and even Weiters on how short live being catcher is - low ROI. Plus, Adley was somewhat an older rookie. 
 

[TopGunnar]

3 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

It may not be a popular opinion, I would not give Adley that 7 or 10 year extension. When you look at Mauer, Posey and even Weiters on how short live being catcher is - low ROI. Plus, Adley was somewhat an older rookie. 
 

Not even considering, Adley hasn’t done anything to warrant a 7-10 year deal.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

Not even considering, Adley hasn’t done anything to warrant a 7-10 year deal.

He's certainly done enough to warrant it, but at the same time they probably shouldn't do it. Those two things can be mutually exclusive. 

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

It may not be a popular opinion, I would not give Adley that 7 or 10 year extension. When you look at Mauer, Posey and even Weiters on how short live being catcher is - low ROI. Plus, Adley was somewhat an older rookie. 
 

Posey out-earned his contract.  He was still a very good player when he opted to retire (3.5 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR in his final season).   I’d have few qualms about giving Adley a similar deal to Posey’s.  

[Just Regular]

Dodgers catcher Will Smith will be a yardstick - his free agency will occur at the midpoint of Adley's four remaining years from here.    Its just semantics who is the best at their position right now - I think they represent a Tier 1 ahead of Realmuto, Murphy and Raleigh.

Fun fact I hadn't run into before now but on a moment's consideration isn't surprising - looking at C leaders for 2022-2023 - despite the shoulder injury, Adley is already MLB's 2-year leader in plate appearances taken.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=c&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2023&qual=600

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Dodgers catcher Will Smith will be a yardstick - his free agency will occur at the midpoint of Adley's four remaining years from here.    Its just semantics who is the best at their position right now - I think they represent a Tier 1 ahead of Realmuto, Murphy and Raleigh.

Fun fact I hadn't run into before now but on a moment's consideration isn't surprising - looking at C leaders for 2022-2023 - despite the shoulder injury, Adley is already MLB's 2-year leader in plate appearances taken.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&pos=c&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2023&qual=600

Useful comp for Arb too.   $5.25 mm in Arb 1, $8.55 mm in Arb 2.   I’d guesstimated Adley at 7/13/19 based on the Witt deal, but maybe that was too aggressive.  

[Just Regular]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Useful comp for Arb too.   $5.25 mm in Arb 1, $8.55 mm in Arb 2.   I’d guesstimated Adley at 7/13/19 based on the Witt deal, but maybe that was too aggressive.  

I hope and think you're right.    Adley's 162 Game Avg WAR is about 20% higher (not that that's what the Arb system values), and I believe he gets to unlock a set of comps Smith hasn't yet been able to access if he is the league's Most Valuable Player or some such anywhere along the way 

[TopGunnar]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

He's certainly done enough to warrant it, but at the same time they probably shouldn't do it. Those two things can be mutually exclusive. 

What has he done to warrant a 10 year 9 figure deal. 

[Roll Tide]